MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 18, 2022

[ Saturday, September 17, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, September 19, 2022 ]

DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/19/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.648
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 537

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 260
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-19 04:00:04OBSERVATION20223536859.5599840.2499449.9049600.0299999999999730.0499999999999730.140.18999999999997FF27.55998536.55998260471.27376800312 00.6478728565684816 34415227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20223536848.6548.6548.65000.020.140.16FF16.65525.65261471.7540346002500.271452132387981624415225DRYL
2022-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20223536859.0748.1353.600.00340.02340.140.1634FF27.07536.07261471.7540346002500.63126713754791634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-18 08:00:01FORECAST20223536858.5543.551.02500.01430.03430.140.1743FF26.55535.55261471.7540346002500.613372664456721634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-18 04:00:06FORECAST20223536856.8642.2349.54500.0310.0510.140.191FF24.86533.86261471.7540346002500.553723939199731634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20223536858.242.0650.1300.08410.10410.140.2441FF26.2528.2260471.2737680031200.601188479348671634425255DRYH
2022-09-17 20:00:01FORECAST20223536858.0443.0650.5500.13280.15280.140.2928FF26.04537.04260471.2737680031200.595584767027521634425255DRYH
2022-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20223536858.0441.2949.66500.10990.12990.140.2699FF26.04537.04260471.2737680031200.595584767027521634425255DRYH
2022-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20223536858.6143.3150.9600.11240.13240.140.2724FF26.61537.61260471.2737680031200.61545057408171634425255DRYH
2022-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20223536858.3644.8951.62500.0490.0790.140.219FF26.36536.36260471.2737680031200.606771415468481634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-17 04:00:09FORECAST20223536858.2744.5551.4100.03260.05260.140.1926FF26.27534.27260471.2737680031200.603633634900811634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-17 00:00:05FORECAST20223536856.4343.2649.84500.1460.1460.140.286FF24.43526.43260471.2737680031200.538293439495851634425255DRYH
2022-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20223536856.7244.9450.8300.07870.09870.140.2387FF24.72533.72260471.2737680031200.54870782852391634425255DRYH
2022-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20223536857.4744.1250.79500.13590.15590.140.2959FF25.47533.47260471.2737680031200.575469425222361634425255DRYH
2022-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20223536857.5643.450.4800.12350.14350.140.2835FF25.56533.56260471.2737680031200.578660059166841634425255DRYH
2022-09-16 08:00:04FORECAST20223536857.2344.7550.9900.03650.05650.140.1965FF25.23534.23260471.2737680031200.566937413845131634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 04:00:10FORECAST20223536857.143.8150.45500.0440.0740.140.214FF25.1534.1260471.2737680031200.562302582510141634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20223536855.5641.7248.6400.1020.1520.140.292FF23.56526.56260471.2737680031200.506920964381451634425255DRYH
2022-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20223536856.3142.249.25500.06630.12630.160.2863FF24.31536.31260471.2737680031200.533975929580911634425255DRYH
2022-09-15 16:00:03FORECAST20223536852.8641.447.1300.05970.11970.160.2797FF20.86530.86260471.2737680031200.41014979723571624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 12:00:10FORECAST20223536847.9739.9943.9800.05810.13810.160.2981FF15.97525.97260471.2737680031200.251423784485281624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 08:00:09FORECAST20223536852.8139.9146.3600.0530.1530.170.323FF20.81530.81260471.2737680031200.408390327397531624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 04:00:09FORECAST20223536852.9639.2946.12500.08430.18430.150.3343FF20.96530.96260471.2737680031200.413674133571581624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20223536850.2437.2443.7400.11410.21410.170.3841FF18.24523.24260471.2737680031200.321170726427681624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223536850.7836.9743.87500.08570.23570.170.4057FF18.78529.78260471.2737680031200.338879131161591624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20223536850.436.3943.39500.0830.2030.160.363FF18.4530.4260471.2737680031200.326377728571611624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20223536850.1236.7243.4200.08450.15450.150.3045FF18.12531.12260471.2737680031200.317288328811481624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 08:00:06FORECAST20223536850.1635.2142.68500.04610.13610.150.2861FF18.16527.16260471.2737680031200.318580258170971624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 04:00:10FORECAST20223536849.5135.6842.59500.00520.11520.150.2652FF17.51533.51260471.2737680031200.297869081073911624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223536851.6836.7844.2300.0060.1060.160.266FF19.68526.68260471.2737680031200.369182351042421624425250DRYMH
2022-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20223536850.753542.87500.00410.06410.180.2441FF18.75536.75260471.2737680031200.337885476135051624415225DRYL
2022-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20223536850.7135.0642.88500.00410.11410.20.3141FF18.71539.71260471.2737680031200.336562358053381624425250DRYMH
2022-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223536846.1135.8640.98500.12730.23730.180.4173FF14.11534.11260471.2737680031200.200874432113021614425245DRYM
2022-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20223536848.2435.2841.7600.06150.12150.190.3115FF16.24536.24260471.2737680031200.259281787700111624425250DRYMH
2022-09-13 04:00:09FORECAST20223536848.2535.2341.7400.06150.12150.190.3115FF16.25538.25260471.2737680031200.259575239670411624425250DRYMH
2022-09-13 00:00:06FORECAST20223536850.5338.9944.7600.08060.22060.070.2906FF18.53529.53260471.2737680031200.330633517612291624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223536852.8740.2746.5700.15850.28850.10.3885FF20.87547.87260471.2737680031200.410501909535171624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 16:00:04FORECAST20223536853.1638.4945.82500.16520.29520.140.4352FF21.16550.16260471.2737680031200.420743429739151624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 12:00:06FORECAST20223536859.3240.3449.83000.30.140.44FF27.32553.32260471.2737680031200.63977268845221634425255DRYH
2022-09-12 08:00:06FORECAST20223536857.241.8849.5400.09650.39650.120.5165FF25.2555.2260471.2737680031200.565868630212531634425255DRYH
2022-09-12 04:00:09FORECAST20223536857.1841.7649.4700.09650.39650.210.6065FF25.18559.18260471.2737680031200.565155839722411634425255DRYH
2022-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20223536847.543.3645.4300.23650.79650.251.0465FF15.5533.5260471.2737680031200.23805067837161614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-11 20:00:04FORECAST20223536847.8241.1944.50500.25340.76340.261.0234FF15.82544.82260471.2737680031200.24711316415141614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-11 16:00:12FORECAST20223536847.2841.5244.400.22190.73190.170.9019FF15.28550.28260471.2737680031200.231927286325691614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-11 12:00:09FORECAST20223536842.2739.0240.64500.19720.38720.20.5872FF10.27537.27260471.2737680031200.117706434552421614425245DRYM
2022-09-11 08:00:05FORECAST20223536847.2643.6545.45500.04930.12930.250.3793FF15.26541.26260471.2737680031200.231374990216531614425245DRYM
2022-09-11 04:00:09FORECAST20223536847.3245.9546.63500.0120.0920.260.352FF15.32548.32260471.2737680031200.233034074188921614425245DRYM