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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 17, 2022

[ Friday, September 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 18, 2022 ]

DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.361
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 554

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.16 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 259
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-18 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223526751.1199632.8200841.97002000.020.140.16FF19.11996554.11996259470.791672921 00.3612782251321716 24415225DRYL
2022-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20223526743.7643.7643.7600.00060.02060.140.1606FF11.76546.76260471.2737680031200.156495022052581614415222.5DRYL
2022-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20223526752.5344.2348.3800.00270.02270.140.1627FF20.53555.53260471.2737680031200.409125531404271624415225DRYL
2022-09-17 08:00:01FORECAST20223526751.9235.4143.66500.00670.02670.140.1667FF19.92554.92260471.2737680031200.38821318715741624415225DRYL
2022-09-17 04:00:08FORECAST20223526749.5833.7841.6800.0040.0240.140.164FF17.58552.58260471.2737680031200.311417267356471624415225DRYL
2022-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20223526752.0837.1444.610000.140.14FF20.08547.08259470.79167292100.393669801188341624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 20:00:01FORECAST20223526751.8836.2144.045000.020.140.16FF19.88553.88259470.79167292100.386852427250031624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20223526751.4838.3644.92000.020.140.16FF19.48553.48259470.79167292100.373323800126781624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20223526751.4839.1345.30500.00050.02050.140.1605FF19.48553.48259470.79167292100.373323800126781624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20223526751.8239.0345.42500.00050.02050.140.1605FF19.82553.82259470.79167292100.384813896749431624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 04:00:09FORECAST20223526751.7239.5145.61500.00020.03020.140.1702FF19.72553.72259470.79167292100.381423434856721624415225DRYL
2022-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20223526750.3638.6944.525000.050.140.19FF18.36548.36259470.79167292100.336311829245141624415225DRYL
2022-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20223526749.9838.5444.2600.00030.08030.140.2203FF17.98556.98259470.79167292100.324085335066761624415225DRYL
2022-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20223526748.3237.8843.100.01310.08310.140.2231FF16.32555.32259470.79167292100.272999254167531624415225DRYL
2022-09-15 12:00:08FORECAST20223526748.1837.6942.93500.01850.09850.140.2385FF16.18555.18259470.79167292100.268879864079861624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 08:00:07FORECAST20223526746.8336.3341.5800.05410.13410.140.2741FF14.83554.83259470.79167292100.230822358823161614425245DRYM
2022-09-15 04:00:08FORECAST20223526746.7637.442.0800.0550.1050.140.245FF14.76554.76259470.79167292100.228934418902871614425245DRYM
2022-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20223526746.3837.3941.88500.03790.13790.130.2679FF14.38550.38259470.79167292100.218837898208741614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223526746.1337.1741.6500.09370.18370.140.3237FF14.13556.13259470.79167292100.212337321702351614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20223526746.5637.6842.1200.06820.13820.140.2782FF14.56556.56259470.79167292100.223588251443261614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20223526746.9537.4742.2100.01860.07860.140.2186FF14.95557.95259470.79167292100.23407892980221614415222.5DRYL
2022-09-14 08:00:05FORECAST20223526741.9336.5239.22500.00380.10380.140.2438FF9.93553.93259470.79167292100.120661763915331614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 04:00:10FORECAST20223526745.1836.0240.600.01570.10570.150.2557FF13.18561.18259470.79167292100.188683924626111614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223526745.1235.6240.3700.03770.11770.140.2577FF13.12552.12259470.79167292100.18724653087821614425245DRYM
2022-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20223526745.1235.6240.3700.03030.07030.170.2403FF13.12563.12259470.79167292100.18724653087821614415222.5DRYL
2022-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20223526745.1235.6240.3700.03020.13020.180.3102FF13.12566.12259470.79167292100.18724653087821614425245DRYM
2022-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223526745.7835.5840.6800.03290.12290.170.2929FF13.78564.78259470.79167292100.203428354244961614425245DRYM
2022-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20223526738.8135.1636.98500.03310.07310.180.2531FF6.81564.81259470.79167292100.0736217491435171614415222.5DRYL
2022-09-13 04:00:08FORECAST20223526742.3435.1638.7500.03310.07310.180.2531FF10.34567.34259470.79167292100.128141187121491614415222.5DRYL
2022-09-13 00:00:05FORECAST20223526741.8137.7439.77500.13630.13630.070.2063FF9.81555.81259470.79167292100.118531820865671614425245DRYM
2022-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223526746.6137.7442.17500.13190.13190.10.2319FF14.61571.61259470.79167292100.224918108585551614425245DRYM
2022-09-12 16:00:04FORECAST20223526746.737.7742.23500.12990.13990.130.2699FF14.7573.7259470.79167292100.227323093307111614425245DRYM
2022-09-12 12:00:05FORECAST20223526748.0736.9342.500.2880.3080.130.438FF16.07571.07259470.79167292100.265665215680071624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 08:00:05FORECAST20223526750.9239.8445.3800.28840.29840.120.4184FF18.92574.92259470.79167292100.354646349082551624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 04:00:09FORECAST20223526750.8439.8445.3400.28840.29840.210.5084FF18.84578.84259470.79167292100.352005219938181624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20223526750.0143.8346.9200.55260.57260.240.8126FF18.01563.01259470.79167292100.325043938871451624435275DRYVH
2022-09-11 20:00:04FORECAST20223526750.3245.1947.75500.51320.51320.260.7732FF18.32574.32259470.79167292100.335016365660981624435275DRYVH
2022-09-11 16:00:10FORECAST20223526750.4445.6248.0300.51320.51320.170.6832FF18.44580.44259470.79167292100.338908578524351624435275DRYVH
2022-09-11 12:00:09FORECAST20223526751.2841.4646.3700.1570.1970.190.387FF19.28572.28259470.79167292100.366616414142591624425250DRYMH
2022-09-11 08:00:05FORECAST20223526752.1940.9746.5800.04560.08560.240.3256FF20.19571.19259470.79167292100.397433440629731624415225DRYL
2022-09-11 04:00:09FORECAST20223526752.8141.0546.9300.04560.08560.250.3356FF20.81577.81259470.79167292100.418815884099531624415225DRYL
2022-09-11 00:00:10FORECAST20223526767.754.160.900.0050.0050.20.205FF35.7601.7259470.79167292100.868209317205091654515235DRYL
2022-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20223526765.0649.5457.30000.220.22FF33.06607.06259470.79167292100.811459098041341644515232.5DRYL
2022-09-10 16:00:05FORECAST20223526764.9449.5257.230000.070.07FF32.94609.94259470.79167292100.808565362141051644515232.5DRYL
2022-09-10 12:00:05FORECAST20223526754.7849.5152.14500.07180.07180.060.1318FF22.78601.78259470.79167292100.488058939949981624515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 08:00:05FORECAST20223526755.4151.2653.3350000.040.04FF23.41603.41259470.79167292100.510380959338211634515230DRYL
2022-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20223526755.4553.8254.6350000.050.05FF23.45609.45259470.79167292100.511797869653421634515230DRYL