MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 16, 2022

[ Thursday, September 15, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 17, 2022 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.202
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 586

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.16 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-17 04:00:07OBSERVATION20223516646.7499235.9900641.3699900.0199999999999820.0299999999999820.130.15999999999998FF14.74992585.74992258470.30774239242 00.2022500381432416 13415220DRYL
2022-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20223516638.538.538.5000.010.130.14FF6.5577.5259470.79167292100.0623918891447251613415220DRYL
2022-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20223516646.4738.8942.6800.01720.02720.130.1572FF14.47585.47259470.79167292100.195616098445561613415220DRYL
2022-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20223516646.2939.0642.67500.0210.0310.130.161FF14.29585.29259470.79167292100.191420702454711613415220DRYL
2022-09-16 04:00:08FORECAST20223516645.5838.4642.0200.02830.03830.130.1683FF13.58584.58259470.79167292100.175415153430081613415220DRYL
2022-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20223516645.7438.1241.9300.05430.06430.130.1943FF13.74580.74258470.3077423924200.178946076881281613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 20:00:01FORECAST20223516646.1138.3742.2400.05620.08620.130.2162FF14.11590.11258470.3077423924200.187280785585771613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 16:00:01FORECAST20223516646.0337.8541.9400.04730.07730.130.2073FF14.03590.03258470.3077423924200.185458688615811613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 12:00:06FORECAST20223516645.7137.4341.5700.05720.08720.130.2172FF13.71589.71258470.3077423924200.178280651998911613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 08:00:06FORECAST20223516645.7237.2341.47500.04610.08610.130.2161FF13.72590.72258470.3077423924200.178502287236651613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 04:00:08FORECAST20223516645.6837.4141.54500.03790.05790.130.1879FF13.68590.68258470.3077423924200.177616784913621613415220DRYL
2022-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20223516645.437.7241.5600.05640.09640.130.2264FF13.4587.4258470.3077423924200.171495920816561613425240DRYM
2022-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223516646.4837.6742.07500.05640.09640.130.2264FF14.48593.48258470.3077423924200.195850797888331613425240DRYM
2022-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20223516645.5538.3841.96500.05080.08080.130.2108FF13.55592.55258470.3077423924200.174758043907191613415220DRYL
2022-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20223516645.6938.1141.900.04610.06610.130.1961FF13.69593.69258470.3077423924200.17783790081361613415220DRYL
2022-09-14 08:00:04FORECAST20223516645.9737.9241.94500.08570.10570.130.2357FF13.97594.97258470.3077423924200.184099346532321613425240DRYM
2022-09-14 04:00:10FORECAST20223516646.6538.0542.3500.08780.10780.130.2378FF14.65598.65258470.3077423924200.199866727050261613425240DRYM
2022-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20223516647.0738.5242.79500.05530.08530.130.2153FF15.07590.07258470.3077423924200.209998051166431613415220DRYL
2022-09-13 20:00:01FORECAST20223516648.3938.8343.6100.02970.04970.160.2097FF16.39601.39258470.3077423924200.243735629535731613515222.5DRYL
2022-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20223516650.6639.5645.1100.07940.11940.160.2794FF18.66603.66258470.3077423924200.307973820763151623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20223516652.9739.4146.1900.07970.09970.160.2597FF20.97601.97258470.3077423924200.37999695093831623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20223516653.2539.1846.21500.03380.05380.170.2238FF21.25609.25258470.3077423924200.389079874640111623515225DRYL
2022-09-13 04:00:08FORECAST20223516652.9439.1846.0600.02610.04610.170.2161FF20.94607.94258470.3077423924200.379027595153221623515225DRYL
2022-09-13 00:00:05FORECAST20223516656.3341.949.11500.0050.0250.050.075FF24.33597.33258470.3077423924200.491925649386331623415222.5DRYL
2022-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223516656.3141.5548.9300.00050.02050.080.1005FF24.31608.31258470.3077423924200.491248435245641623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 16:00:04FORECAST20223516655.3241.3648.3400.00310.02310.120.1431FF23.32610.32258470.3077423924200.457797196353051623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 12:00:05FORECAST20223516654.6140.4847.54500.01240.03240.120.1524FF22.61605.61258470.3077423924200.433976028971241623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 08:00:05FORECAST20223516655.5541.3148.4300.01480.01480.120.1348FF23.55606.55258470.3077423924200.465550792970091623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 04:00:09FORECAST20223516655.5541.2748.4100.01480.02480.20.2248FF23.55610.55258470.3077423924200.465550792970091623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20223516658.444.851.600.00540.02540.230.2554FF26.4596.4258470.3077423924200.561783302659411633415225DRYL
2022-09-11 20:00:04FORECAST20223516658.1843.5350.8550000.260.26FF26.18607.18258470.3077423924200.554411547624821633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-11 16:00:10FORECAST20223516658.1643.5250.840000.170.17FF26.16613.16258470.3077423924200.553740414949531633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-11 12:00:08FORECAST20223516654.3443.7949.06500.03380.04380.190.2338FF22.34604.34258470.3077423924200.424975063977051623515225DRYL
2022-09-11 08:00:05FORECAST20223516653.7541.5847.66500.0340.0440.240.284FF21.75601.75258470.3077423924200.40544800921911623515225DRYL
2022-09-11 04:00:09FORECAST20223516653.741.6247.6600.0340.0440.250.294FF21.7607.7258470.3077423924200.403803219071431623515225DRYL
2022-09-11 00:00:09FORECAST20223516665.3745.1955.280000.20.2FF33.37617.37258470.3077423924200.772544149038371643515230DRYL
2022-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20223516661.3846.0253.700.00040.00040.220.2204FF29.38625.38258470.3077423924200.658539922209511633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 16:00:04FORECAST20223516661.3343.9152.6200.00040.00040.070.0704FF29.33628.33258470.3077423924200.656980670183421633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 12:00:05FORECAST20223516663.7345.7854.7550000.060.06FF31.73629.73258470.3077423924200.728405576545551643515230DRYL
2022-09-10 08:00:05FORECAST20223516663.7545.8454.7950000.040.04FF31.75630.75258470.3077423924200.728968409889641643515230DRYL
2022-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20223516663.7145.8154.760000.050.05FF31.71636.71258470.3077423924200.727842162529461643515230DRYL
2022-09-10 00:00:05FORECAST20223516661.8146.7854.29500.00940.01940.150.1694FF29.81629.81258470.3077423924200.671835636619591633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 20:00:08FORECAST20223516661.3945.7753.58000.010.080.09FF29.39642.39258470.3077423924200.658851449399621633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 16:00:04FORECAST20223516661.3945.7753.58000.010.060.07FF29.39641.39258470.3077423924200.658851449399621633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20223516649.4343.5646.495000.010.070.08FF17.43629.43258470.3077423924200.272246850591991623515225DRYL
2022-09-09 08:00:06FORECAST2022351664743.6845.34000.010.070.08FF15620258470.3077423924200.208288886878851613515222.5DRYL
2022-09-09 04:00:13FORECAST20223516647.0545.0346.04000.040.070.11FF15.05628.05258470.3077423924200.209508881140561613515222.5DRYL