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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 11, 2022

[ Saturday, September 10, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, September 12, 2022 ]

DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.888
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 649

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 253
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-12 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223466174.5800857.1165.8450400000FF42.58008648.58008253467.86031254069 00.8881416026405616 53515165DRYH
2022-09-12 00:00:01FORECAST20223466158.0458.0458.0400.00250.002500.0025FF26.04632.04254468.3535256546200.418139125804411623515225DRYL
2022-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20223466170.3959.7665.07500.01720.017200.0172FF38.39644.39254468.3535256546200.803975758547831643515160DRYH
2022-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20223466170.9759.665.28500.04320.043200.0432FF38.97644.97254468.3535256546200.817487191015451643515160DRYH
2022-09-11 04:00:06FORECAST20223466171.8859.3665.6200.04690.046900.0469FF39.88645.88254468.3535256546200.837483351838861643515160DRYH
2022-09-11 00:00:04FORECAST20223466170.2258.7964.50500.08390.083900.0839FF38.22635.22253467.8603125406900.799903584767171643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 20:00:01FORECAST20223466171.9559.865.87500.09040.090400.0904FF39.95649.95253467.8603125406900.8389602854004416435251120DRYVH
2022-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20223466172.0959.9666.02500.00760.007600.0076FF40.09650.09253467.8603125406900.841887857932811643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20223466172.0360.166.06500.00440.004400.0044FF40.03650.03253467.8603125406900.840637477266341643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20223466171.3459.6565.49500.01240.012400.0124FF39.34647.34253467.8603125406900.825795544337981643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20223466171.7459.4965.61500.02080.020800.0208FF39.74650.74253467.8603125406900.834503197455451643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 00:00:04FORECAST20223466171.9460.7966.36500.00960.009600.0096FF39.94641.94253467.8603125406900.83874983147181643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 20:00:04FORECAST20223466172.260.6266.4100.01580.035800.0358FF40.2655.2253467.8603125406900.844163496417151643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20223466172.0360.8166.4200.00980.029800.0298FF40.03655.03253467.8603125406900.840637477266341643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20223466172.2560.4266.33500.00430.024300.0243FF40.25655.25253467.8603125406900.845190722515951643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20223466172.2358.865.51500.01280.012800.0128FF40.23653.23253467.8603125406900.844780368661211643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 04:00:11FORECAST20223466171.8759.4865.67500.01170.011700.0117FF39.87654.87253467.8603125406900.837271645930951643515160DRYH
2022-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20223466171.2558.7364.9900.04280.042800.0428FF39.25642.25253467.8603125406900.823796998474551643515160DRYH
2022-09-08 20:00:04FORECAST20223466170.8159.196500.00820.008200.0082FF38.81654.81253467.8603125406900.813819162302211643515160DRYH
2022-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20223466173.4658.265.8300.00490.004900.0049FF41.46653.46253467.8603125406900.868689799433461653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 12:00:04FORECAST20223466173.8559.0766.4600.0050.00500.005FF41.85652.85253467.8603125406900.875711049849841653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20223466171.2559.9665.60500.00150.001500.0015FF39.25654.25253467.8603125406900.823796998474551643515160DRYH
2022-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20223466174.7359.3167.0200.00190.00190.010.0119FF42.73655.73253467.8603125406900.890580482056181653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20223466174.4258.666.5100.00190.001900.0019FF42.42637.42253467.8603125406900.885494926705391653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 20:00:05FORECAST20223466174.5858.6466.6100.00190.001900.0019FF42.58655.58253467.8603125406900.888140290948411653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20223466174.5458.6866.6100.00210.002100.0021FF42.54659.54253467.8603125406900.887483070874421653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 12:00:10FORECAST20223466174.9960.5767.7800.00280.002800.0028FF42.99659.99253467.8603125406900.894719419982671653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20223466172.8261.5967.20500000FF40.82652.82253467.8603125406900.856585320201171653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 04:00:09FORECAST20223466175.8361.568.66500000FF43.83657.83253467.8603125406900.90731760595941653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 00:00:19FORECAST20223466174.2860.4267.3500000FF42.28650.28253467.8603125406900.883144074274151653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST2022346617559.0167.00500000FF43664253467.8603125406900.894876323667691653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20223466174.9959.0367.0100000FF42.99664.99253467.8603125406900.894719419982671653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20223466176.460.7468.5700.00520.005200.0052FF44.4667.4253467.8603125406900.915209747624211653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20223466176.6160.4668.53500.00450.004500.0045FF44.61661.61253467.8603125406900.917987115459911653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 04:00:09FORECAST20223466176.5560.4668.50500.00450.00450.010.0145FF44.55667.55253467.8603125406900.917200646166451653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20223466171.6459.8565.74500000FF39.64658.64253467.8603125406900.832353065798821643515160DRYH
2022-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20223466170.5357.9164.2200000FF38.53664.53253467.8603125406900.807291351676971643515160DRYH
2022-09-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223466170.557.9164.20500000FF38.5664.5253467.8603125406900.806583761087071643515160DRYH
2022-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223466169.6253.1861.400000FF37.62665.62253467.8603125406900.785130808146141643515160DRYH
2022-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20223466167.5651.7859.6700000FF35.56661.56253467.8603125406900.729855952844711643515230DRYL
2022-09-05 04:00:10FORECAST20223466167.5851.7859.6800000FF35.58669.58253467.8603125406900.730424792733981643515230DRYL
2022-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20223466160.2547.5253.88500000FF28.25644.25253467.8603125406900.493406953780391623515225DRYL
2022-09-04 20:00:04FORECAST20223466164.6452.5458.590000.060.06FF32.64668.64253467.8603125406900.641006925335221633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223466164.4352.5158.470000.040.04FF32.43663.43253467.8603125406900.634232639397961633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-04 12:00:04FORECAST20223466155.1151.6453.3750000.050.05FF23.11643.11253467.8603125406900.323213386449471623515225DRYL
2022-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20223466154.4452.0153.2250000.040.04FF22.44646.44253467.8603125406900.302795994291351623515225DRYL
2022-09-04 04:00:08FORECAST20223466158.8355.4557.140000.040.04FF26.83646.83253467.8603125406900.444846949566281623515225DRYL