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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 9, 2022

[ Thursday, September 8, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 10, 2022 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.659
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 648

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 251
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-10 04:00:07OBSERVATION20223445964.1100248.8400856.475050000.010.01FF32.11002648.11002251466.86824583767 00.6587123155923616 33515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20223445953.9253.9253.920000.010.01FF21.92637.92252467.3652216514200.258393082624071623515225DRYL
2022-09-09 12:00:01FORECAST20223445966.7955.1860.98500.01580.01580.010.0258FF34.79650.79252467.3652216514200.75396807186211643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20223445966.3148.9457.6250000.010.01FF34.31650.31252467.3652216514200.738009430071131643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 04:00:10FORECAST20223445966.6550.7658.70500.00020.00020.010.0102FF34.65650.65252467.3652216514200.749367911361731643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20223445967.4849.3558.4150000.010.01FF35.48640.48251466.8682458376700.775964694167931643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20223445967.0751.959.4850000.010.01FF35.07653.07251466.8682458376700.763031046557811643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20223445963.8651.8857.870000.010.01FF31.86649.86251466.8682458376700.649144065606621633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20223445963.3351.7957.560000.010.01FF31.33649.33251466.8682458376700.628552183462381633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20223445966.4151.5258.9650000.010.01FF34.41653.41251466.8682458376700.741377304784241643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20223445966.1851.4958.835000.010.010.02FF34.18652.18251466.8682458376700.733597868026351643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20223445965.7252.4259.070000.010.01FF33.72634.72251466.8682458376700.717692259450631643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20223445966.0851.8858.980000.010.01FF34.08652.08251466.8682458376700.730179001776041643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20223445966.6451.6759.1550000.010.01FF34.64652.64251466.8682458376700.749037596533031643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 12:00:07FORECAST20223445966.7351.3259.0250000.010.01FF34.73652.73251466.8682458376700.752002130434871643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20223445965.5650.9958.2750000.010.01FF33.56651.56251466.8682458376700.712054828905871643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 04:00:08FORECAST20223445965.5149.657.5550000.010.01FF33.51648.51251466.8682458376700.710282306504461643515230DRYL
2022-09-07 00:00:15FORECAST20223445967.6451.9559.7950000.010.01FF35.64642.64251466.8682458376700.780901266215261643515230DRYL
2022-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20223445968.3752.3860.3750000.010.01FF36.37655.37251466.8682458376700.802617236640391643515160DRYH
2022-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20223445968.8751.8760.370000.010.01FF36.87655.87251466.8682458376700.816712482433191643515160DRYH
2022-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20223445971.1249.960.510000.010.01FF39.12659.12251466.8682458376700.872134773020731653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20223445966.3151.558.9050000.010.01FF34.31654.31251466.8682458376700.738009430071131643515230DRYL
2022-09-06 04:00:08FORECAST20223445970.6751.4561.060000.020.02FF38.67657.67251466.8682458376700.862099658149441653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20223445970.1552.9361.540000.010.01FF38.15654.15251466.8682458376700.849852300491861653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20223445970.6651.2260.940000.010.01FF38.66661.66251466.8682458376700.861870733845211653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223445970.6652.0161.3350000.010.01FF38.66661.66251466.8682458376700.861870733845211653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223445970.853.2862.040000.010.01FF38.8663.8251466.8682458376700.86505219384931653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20223445970.7753.2862.0250000.010.01FF38.77659.77251466.8682458376700.864374707191281653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 04:00:09FORECAST20223445971.9254.1163.0150000.010.01FF39.92668.92251466.8682458376700.888701397210781653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 00:00:04FORECAST20223445971.853.7162.7550000.010.01FF39.8653.8251466.8682458376700.886319120215931653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20223445973.1152.362.705000.030.040.07FF41.11671.11251466.8682458376700.910417169208551653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223445973.0852.362.690000.050.05FF41.08666.08251466.8682458376700.909911405507631653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20223445971.0349.5160.27000.010.050.06FF39.03660.03251466.8682458376700.870169349785531653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20223445971.3249.5160.415000.010.040.05FF39.32664.32251466.8682458376700.876428307129911653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 04:00:08FORECAST20223445970.8250.1760.495000.010.040.05FF38.82659.82251466.8682458376700.865502563624941653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 00:00:05FORECAST20223445950.8542.2446.54500.10780.12780.050.1778FF18.85633.85251466.8682458376700.166785995648261613525245DRYM
2022-09-03 20:00:04FORECAST20223445950.7942.2646.52500.10780.12780.060.1878FF18.79641.79251466.8682458376700.165233562768121613525245DRYM
2022-09-03 16:00:04FORECAST20223445958.2147.7652.98500.01030.03030.030.0603FF26.21653.21251466.8682458376700.419493115922841623515225DRYL
2022-09-03 12:00:04FORECAST20223445970.2650.4260.34000.010.020.03FF38.26665.26251466.8682458376700.852501568241081653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20223445970.0850.4460.26000.010.040.05FF38.08662.08251466.8682458376700.84815003279341643515160DRYH
2022-09-03 04:00:09FORECAST20223445969.6249.259.41000.010.050.06FF37.62660.62251466.8682458376700.836646652900761643515160DRYH
2022-09-03 00:00:05FORECAST20223445967.1848.1557.66500.00960.11960.030.1496FF35.18635.18251466.8682458376700.766540727349321643525260DRYH
2022-09-02 20:00:04FORECAST20223445967.2748.1657.71500.00960.11960.030.1496FF35.27651.27251466.8682458376700.769390740260071643525260DRYH
2022-09-02 16:00:04FORECAST20223445969.2450.8260.03000.130.040.17FF37.24656.24251466.8682458376700.8267288776345916435251120DRYVH
2022-09-02 12:00:05FORECAST20223445962.5248.4755.495000.30.040.34FF30.52640.52251466.8682458376700.596377402413311633525255DRYH
2022-09-02 08:00:04FORECAST20223445950.248.4549.325000.30.040.34FF18.2618.2251466.8682458376700.15046670264571613525245DRYM
2022-09-02 04:00:09FORECAST20223445946.8246.2346.525000.30.020.32FF14.82614.82251466.8682458376700.0829304021269011613525245DRYM