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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 30, 2022

[ Monday, August 29, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 31, 2022 ]

DAY 334 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/31/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.989
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 51
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 675

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 241
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-31 04:00:04OBSERVATION20223344982.7000663.4800273.090040000.020.02FF50.70006674.70006241461.79322445274 00.9890242157077516 53515165DRYH
2022-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20223344968.7268.7268.720000.020.02FF36.72660.72242462.3094487524600.809616635048341643515160DRYH
2022-08-30 12:00:01FORECAST20223344980.2568.774.4750000.020.02FF48.25672.25242462.3094487524600.979453055003451653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20223344978.9165.0271.9650000.020.02FF46.91670.91242462.3094487524600.971721263580091653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 04:00:06FORECAST20223344980.4362.2971.360000.020.02FF48.43672.43242462.3094487524600.980340788240911653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20223344979.962.771.30000.020.02FF47.9660.9241461.7932244527400.977629715867061653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20223344978.961.2670.080000.020.02FF46.9667.9241461.7932244527400.971655537665471653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20223344978.6761.7570.2100.0060.0060.020.026FF46.67667.67241461.7932244527400.97010850616811653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20223344978.6162.1770.3900.00610.00610.020.0261FF46.61667.61241461.7932244527400.969693640727631653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20223344978.4461.770.070000.020.02FF46.44667.44241461.7932244527400.968492282231141653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 04:00:07FORECAST20223344978.6561.9470.29500.00030.00030.020.0203FF46.65668.65241461.7932244527400.969970742763051653515165DRYH
2022-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20223344978.5861.9170.2450000.020.02FF46.58657.58241461.7932244527400.969484430284121653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20223344978.4961.7870.1350000.020.02FF46.49664.49241461.7932244527400.968849630430451653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20223344978.1461.769.920000.020.02FF46.14664.14241461.7932244527400.966276591210281653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20223344977.9961.1869.58500.00030.00030.020.0203FF45.99663.99241461.7932244527400.965121705223661653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20223344978.0661.1769.61500.00030.02030.020.0403FF46.06666.06241461.7932244527400.965664618545521653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20223344977.9661.0769.51500.00030.00030.020.0203FF45.96665.96241461.7932244527400.964886886895611653515165DRYH
2022-08-28 00:00:04FORECAST20223344978.1362.0270.0750000.020.02FF46.13659.13241461.7932244527400.966200587494311653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20223344980.0861.4570.7650000.040.04FF48.08667.08241461.7932244527400.978583757146521653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20223344979.4461.7370.5850000.040.04FF47.44666.44241461.7932244527400.975027958898381653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 12:00:05FORECAST20223344978.9661.9270.440000.040.04FF46.96665.96241461.7932244527400.972047998264361653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20223344979.362.4770.8850000.030.03FF47.3663.3241461.7932244527400.97418758477911653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 04:00:07FORECAST20223344979.462.4770.9350000.040.04FF47.4667.4241461.7932244527400.974790219972791653515165DRYH
2022-08-27 00:00:04FORECAST20223344979.4661.1970.3250000.050.05FF47.46653.46241461.7932244527400.975146123456131653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 20:00:04FORECAST20223344979.3660.9570.1550000.080.08FF47.36662.36241461.7932244527400.974550592166881653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 16:00:03FORECAST20223344979.0160.9869.9950000.150.15FF47.01664.01241461.7932244527400.972371590872591653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 12:00:05FORECAST20223344977.0559.2968.170000.150.15FF45.05658.05241461.7932244527400.957127402418671653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 08:00:04FORECAST20223344977.0559.2968.170000.120.12FF45.05658.05241461.7932244527400.957127402418671653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 04:00:08FORECAST20223344978.9359.2769.10000.110.11FF46.93659.93241461.7932244527400.97185233590511653515165DRYH
2022-08-26 00:00:04FORECAST20223344979.3360.0769.70000.110.11FF47.33644.33241461.7932244527400.974369625129641653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 20:00:04FORECAST20223344979.5459.1569.3450000.130.13FF47.54657.54241461.7932244527400.975614114207021653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 16:00:04FORECAST20223344979.4860.1469.810000.140.14FF47.48661.48241461.7932244527400.975263819900841653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20223344978.9760.2269.5950000.150.15FF46.97661.97241461.7932244527400.972112967451311653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 08:00:18FORECAST20223344977.8459.9868.91000.010.130.14FF45.84654.84241461.7932244527400.963934646986351653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 04:00:06FORECAST20223344977.8559.9968.92000.010.140.15FF45.85660.85241461.7932244527400.964014797365441653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 00:00:05FORECAST20223344977.3758.868.085000.010.120.13FF45.37646.37241461.7932244527400.960000082064391653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 20:00:04FORECAST20223344977.4258.8368.1250000.120.12FF45.42660.42241461.7932244527400.960434518046611653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 16:00:04FORECAST20223344975.2558.0866.6650000.120.12FF43.25658.25241461.7932244527400.937744223556231653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20223344979.9760.9370.450000.140.14FF47.97667.97241461.7932244527400.978004898736121653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 08:00:04FORECAST20223344979.9660.8470.40000.160.16FF47.96659.96241461.7932244527400.977951627855251653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 04:00:08FORECAST20223344980.8560.9470.8950000.150.15FF48.85662.85241461.7932244527400.982286553324141653515165DRYH
2022-08-24 00:00:05FORECAST20223344977.6561.5169.580000.150.15FF45.65655.65241461.7932244527400.962383898997471653515165DRYH
2022-08-23 20:00:08FORECAST20223344978.560.9269.710000.110.11FF46.5674.5241461.7932244527400.968920697361931653515165DRYH
2022-08-23 16:00:04FORECAST20223344977.7560.9269.3350000.120.12FF45.75672.75241461.7932244527400.963206715099311653515165DRYH
2022-08-23 12:00:04FORECAST20223344970.0759.3964.730000.110.11FF38.07651.07241461.7932244527400.844406014971521643515160DRYH
2022-08-23 08:00:05FORECAST20223344961.0859.3960.2350000.120.12FF29.08638.08241461.7932244527400.542134056563491633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-23 04:00:10FORECAST20223344960.7260.1960.4550000.10.1FF28.72637.72241461.7932244527400.527704663416111633515227.5DRYL