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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 25, 2022

[ Wednesday, August 24, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, August 26, 2022 ]

DAY 329 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/26/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.926
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 703

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 236
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-26 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223294474.3500456.7565.55002000.010.010.02FF42.35004703.35004236459.18247210974 00.9258183191513516 53515165DRYH
2022-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20223294456.7156.7156.71000.010.010.02FF24.71685.71237459.7085984425800.383552944314161623515225DRYL
2022-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20223294471.6157.6664.63500.00980.01980.010.0298FF39.61700.61237459.7085984425800.879894079563081653515165DRYH
2022-08-25 08:00:05FORECAST20223294468.5757.7263.14500.0120.0220.010.032FF36.57697.57237459.7085984425800.809003208019271643515160DRYH
2022-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20223294469.8758.1664.01500.00880.01880.010.0288FF37.87698.87237459.7085984425800.841969702840441643515160DRYH
2022-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20223294469.7358.2363.9800.01880.02880.010.0388FF37.73684.73236459.1824721097400.838609996146541643515160DRYH
2022-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20223294469.7758.3364.0500.01090.05090.010.0609FF37.77696.77236459.1824721097400.839574619013041643515160DRYH
2022-08-24 16:00:01FORECAST20223294469.6458.8464.2400.00830.04830.010.0583FF37.64696.64236459.1824721097400.836425829789011643515160DRYH
2022-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20223294468.7958.7963.7900.03240.07240.010.0824FF36.79695.79236459.1824721097400.814859835577721643515160DRYH
2022-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20223294468.9758.6563.8100.03290.09290.010.1029FF36.97690.97236459.1824721097400.8195678864375416435251120DRYVH
2022-08-24 04:00:06FORECAST20223294468.9558.7263.83500.03660.08660.010.0966FF36.95691.95236459.1824721097400.819048501226051643515160DRYH
2022-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20223294469.7259.6264.6700.01150.09150.010.1015FF37.72683.72236459.1824721097400.8383682521433316435251120DRYVH
2022-08-23 20:00:04FORECAST20223294469.9859.4264.700.00980.05980.010.0698FF37.98696.98236459.1824721097400.844577113284361643515160DRYH
2022-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20223294470.4759.6965.0800.0060.0660.010.076FF38.47697.47236459.1824721097400.855846250331441653515165DRYH
2022-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20223294470.0859.6564.86500.0020.0520.010.062FF38.08697.08236459.1824721097400.84692277917041643515160DRYH
2022-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20223294469.8359.6864.75500.00360.06360.010.0736FF37.83692.83236459.1824721097400.841014493410261643515160DRYH
2022-08-23 04:00:08FORECAST20223294470.2659.6864.9700.00350.04350.010.0535FF38.26691.26236459.1824721097400.851085708801211653515165DRYH
2022-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20223294469.2559.2564.2500.02940.09940.010.1094FF37.25676.25236459.1824721097400.8267410628533516435251120DRYVH
2022-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20223294470.8858.8964.88500.03560.09560.010.1056FF38.88689.88236459.1824721097400.8648428746310816535251130DRYVH
2022-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20223294470.0458.764.3700.05060.11060.010.1206FF38.04689.04236459.1824721097400.8459873360779316435251120DRYVH
2022-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20223294467.558.6263.0600.030.110.010.12FF35.5685.5236459.1824721097400.778936223671811643525260DRYH
2022-08-22 08:00:03FORECAST20223294466.8758.4662.66500.03110.10110.010.1111FF34.87684.87236459.1824721097400.760037638281761643525260DRYH
2022-08-22 04:00:09FORECAST20223294471.2458.4664.8500.00140.04140.010.0514FF39.24689.24236459.1824721097400.872419323633851653515165DRYH
2022-08-22 00:00:04FORECAST20223294471.6458.8565.245000.070.020.09FF39.64672.64236459.1824721097400.880486366880051653515165DRYH
2022-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20223294471.6358.8165.22000.060.020.08FF39.63685.63236459.1824721097400.880289166444151653515165DRYH
2022-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20223294471.1558.9765.06000.070.020.09FF39.15683.15236459.1824721097400.870553401346141653515165DRYH
2022-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20223294471.6859.565.59000.090.020.11FF39.68680.68236459.1824721097400.881272883628116535251130DRYVH
2022-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20223294469.0259.8464.43000.10.020.12FF37.02680.02236459.1824721097400.8208622622194516435251120DRYVH
2022-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20223294469.0259.8464.43000.020.020.04FF37.02683.02236459.1824721097400.820862262219451643515160DRYH
2022-08-21 00:00:04FORECAST20223294471.1559.4465.29500.04650.05650.030.0865FF39.15676.15236459.1824721097400.870553401346141653515165DRYH
2022-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20223294471.1259.1465.1300.04650.04650.010.0565FF39.12684.12236459.1824721097400.869927258542371653515165DRYH
2022-08-20 16:00:04FORECAST20223294471.096065.54500.04660.04660.020.0666FF39.09687.09236459.1824721097400.869299028922851653515165DRYH
2022-08-20 12:00:04FORECAST20223294471.8861.2466.5600.05990.08990.030.1199FF39.88684.88236459.1824721097400.885150778143391653515165DRYH
2022-08-20 08:00:04FORECAST20223294471.8861.2466.5600.05990.08990.020.1099FF39.88685.88236459.1824721097400.885150778143391653515165DRYH
2022-08-20 04:00:09FORECAST20223294471.4761.5366.500.060.10.020.12FF39.47688.47236459.1824721097400.8771028152850716535251130DRYVH
2022-08-20 00:00:04FORECAST20223294472.0462.0567.04500.06420.10420.030.1342FF40.04682.04236459.1824721097400.8881877696943616535251130DRYVH
2022-08-19 20:00:04FORECAST20223294471.9962.1467.06500.06420.10420.030.1342FF39.99699.99236459.1824721097400.8872449240963316535251130DRYVH
2022-08-19 16:00:03FORECAST20223294471.5262.9867.2500.06440.10440.020.1244FF39.52700.52236459.1824721097400.8781048552865516535251130DRYVH
2022-08-19 12:00:04FORECAST20223294472.2563.756800.04960.07960.020.0996FF40.25698.25236459.1824721097400.892086322499521653515165DRYH
2022-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20223294472.8964.0168.4500.04980.07980.030.1098FF40.89690.89236459.1824721097400.903363624769031653515165DRYH
2022-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20223294472.9464.0168.47500.04980.07980.040.1198FF40.94696.94236459.1824721097400.904206887107491653515165DRYH
2022-08-19 00:00:04FORECAST20223294474.456368.725000.010.040.05FF42.45688.45236459.1824721097400.927196499190961653515165DRYH
2022-08-18 20:00:04FORECAST20223294473.7862.3468.06000.010.070.08FF41.78692.78236459.1824721097400.917576894177161653515165DRYH
2022-08-18 16:00:04FORECAST20223294473.7862.3468.06000.010.060.07FF41.78695.78236459.1824721097400.917576894177161653515165DRYH
2022-08-18 12:00:05FORECAST20223294468.658.9863.79000.010.080.09FF36.6681.6236459.1824721097400.809808449262071643515160DRYH
2022-08-18 08:00:05FORECAST20223294458.0256.9657.49000.010.150.16FF26.02662.02236459.1824721097400.433726015491681623515225DRYL
2022-08-18 04:00:12FORECAST20223294458.0257.4157.715000.010.110.12FF26.02666.02236459.1824721097400.433726015491681623515225DRYL