MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 20, 2022

[ Friday, August 19, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 21, 2022 ]

DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.553
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 678

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 231
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-21 04:00:04OBSERVATION20223243963.9600854.3099259.13500.00999999999999090.009999999999990900.0099999999999909FF31.96008677.96008231456.52164123267 00.5526004436435116 33515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20223243955.7755.7755.7700.00510.005100.0051FF23.77669.77232457.0578595359600.266689277443521623515225DRYL
2022-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20223243964.3655.459.8800.00240.002400.0024FF32.36678.36232457.0578595359600.567142683967331633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST2022324396555.6460.3200.00550.005500.0055FF33679232457.0578595359600.590218995671571633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 04:00:08FORECAST20223243962.4854.9958.73500.00450.004500.0045FF30.48676.48232457.0578595359600.498316467657211623515225DRYL
2022-08-20 00:00:03FORECAST20223243964.8355.0359.9300.0090.00900.009FF32.83666.83231456.5216412326700.584116306255921633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 20:00:01FORECAST20223243965.0654.3859.7200.00490.014900.0149FF33.06681.06231456.5216412326700.592367760288851633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20223243965.2654.8560.05500.00030.010300.0103FF33.26681.26231456.5216412326700.599509921849111633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20223243965.0454.6559.845000.0100.01FF33.04681.04231456.5216412326700.591651810651421633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20223243965.1354.2659.69500.00440.024400.0244FF33.13677.13231456.5216412326700.594871141054611633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 04:00:06FORECAST20223243964.8455.0659.9500.00770.027700.0277FF32.84677.84231456.5216412326700.584475865274191633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20223243964.8554.8159.8300.00640.016400.0164FF32.85667.85231456.5216412326700.584835353585471633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20223243963.1953.3358.2600.00430.054300.0543FF31.19674.19231456.5216412326700.524414989767361633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20223243964.7353.6859.205000.0400.04FF32.73676.73231456.5216412326700.580516891431771633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20223243964.8953.459.145000.0500.05FF32.89676.89231456.5216412326700.58627259393471633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022324396252.6757.33500.01240.122400.1224FF30671231456.5216412326700.480669641245131623525250DRYMH
2022-08-18 04:00:10FORECAST20223243962.6453.1557.89500.01260.082600.0826FF30.64670.64231456.5216412326700.504201182194241633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20223243965.3352.7759.05000.0600.06FF33.33664.33231456.5216412326700.602001971789521633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-17 20:00:03FORECAST20223243964.7252.8258.7700.00360.193600.1936FF32.72669.72231456.5216412326700.580156573922011633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 16:00:03FORECAST20223243967.3452.659.9700.03140.151400.1514FF35.34673.34231456.5216412326700.671422602681591633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20223243965.6352.959.26500.04180.161800.1618FF33.63671.63231456.5216412326700.612633949912841633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 08:00:04FORECAST20223243967.7954.8461.31500.03040.150400.1504FF35.79671.79231456.5216412326700.686280194391541633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 04:00:08FORECAST20223243967.7654.8661.3100.03040.150400.1504FF35.76671.76231456.5216412326700.685298680046171633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 00:00:04FORECAST20223243966.9250.7358.82500.00330.08330.020.1033FF34.92667.92231456.5216412326700.657306179477311633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-16 20:00:04FORECAST20223243969.951.7360.815000.0400.04FF37.9673.9231456.5216412326700.751710856119131643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 16:00:03FORECAST20223243971.3154.5862.945000.0700.07FF39.31675.31231456.5216412326700.791004232165781643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20223243970.9454.5962.76500.0020.04200.042FF38.94674.94231456.5216412326700.781062862705971643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20223243968.9654.1661.56000.0200.02FF36.96671.96231456.5216412326700.723479279967411643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20223243971.5253.5862.55000.0200.02FF39.52679.52231456.5216412326700.796526571902861643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223243970.9953.5362.2600.00220.022200.0222FF38.99661.99231456.5216412326700.782421946366841643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20223243970.8352.5361.6800.00230.022300.0223FF38.83678.83231456.5216412326700.77805578284691643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 16:00:03FORECAST20223243973.4654.9764.21500.00230.042300.0423FF41.46683.46231456.5216412326700.843329228540731643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20223243971.3754.1462.755000.0300.03FF39.37679.37231456.5216412326700.792590965398491643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20223243970.7454.0262.38000.0500.05FF38.74673.74231456.5216412326700.775578031283351643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20223243970.745462.37000.0300.03FF38.74673.74231456.5216412326700.775578031283351643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 00:00:05FORECAST20223243973.5357.0265.275000.0100.01FF41.53664.53231456.5216412326700.844874106559671643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20223243973.6256.8765.245000.0100.01FF41.62676.62231456.5216412326700.846845589912091643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20223243974.456.8665.63000.0100.01FF42.4675.4231456.5216412326700.863236210678861653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 12:00:05FORECAST20223243974.3657.8366.095000.0200.02FF42.36674.36231456.5216412326700.862425924396131653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 08:00:04FORECAST20223243972.4458.7765.60500000FF40.44666.44231456.5216412326700.819677291143311643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 04:00:09FORECAST20223243972.458.7665.5800000FF40.4669.4231456.5216412326700.818706376531511643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223243962.7353.4258.07500.07320.093200.0932FF30.73651.73231456.5216412326700.507511014474711633525255DRYH
2022-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20223243964.8756.3960.6300.0530.0630.010.073FF32.87666.87231456.5216412326700.58555411692151633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20223243964.8356.3660.59500.03620.04620.010.0562FF32.83666.83231456.5216412326700.584116306255921633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223243965.2756.3460.805000.020.010.03FF33.27660.27231456.5216412326700.599866179601921633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20223243957.6654.4156.035000.020.010.03FF25.66648.66231456.5216412326700.326861116340911623515225DRYL
2022-08-13 04:00:08FORECAST20223243957.6654.956.28000.020.010.03FF25.66651.66231456.5216412326700.326861116340911623515225DRYL