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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 19, 2022

[ Thursday, August 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 20, 2022 ]

DAY 323 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/20/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.58°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.750
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 682

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 230
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 38

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-20 04:00:07OBSERVATION20223233869.3199457.8499863.5849600000FF37.31994682.31994230455.98338142343 00.7496339858296316 43515160DRYH
2022-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20223233857.1857.1857.1800.00040.000400.0004FF25.18670.18231456.5216412326700.30224391867441623515225DRYL
2022-08-19 12:00:01FORECAST20223233871.1857.7864.4800.01030.010300.0103FF39.18684.18231456.5216412326700.803977615763371643515160DRYH
2022-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20223233866.6257.6362.12500.02310.023100.0231FF34.62679.62231456.5216412326700.658501522359421633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-19 04:00:05FORECAST20223233867.8157.9362.8700.01870.018700.0187FF35.81680.81231456.5216412326700.700261976779471643515230DRYL
2022-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20223233867.5557.4562.500.01290.012900.0129FF35.55670.55230455.9833814234300.691335473199551633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 20:00:01FORECAST20223233866.4556.6661.55500.03470.054700.0547FF34.45679.45230455.9833814234300.65235814849281633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20223233866.7457.5162.12500.0170.03700.037FF34.74679.74230455.9833814234300.662813007927421633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20223233867.0557.5162.2800.03440.054400.0544FF35.05680.05230455.9833814234300.673851403968351633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20223233867.3956.6362.0100.08920.109200.1092FF35.39677.39230455.9833814234300.685785089198421633525255DRYH
2022-08-18 04:00:09FORECAST20223233867.8556.8962.3700.07470.074700.0747FF35.85675.85230455.9833814234300.7016248544821643515230DRYL
2022-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20223233867.5756.2861.92500.04420.064200.0642FF35.57666.57230455.9833814234300.692026245211621633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-17 20:00:03FORECAST20223233867.0456.161.5700.15840.188400.1884FF35.04673.04230455.9833814234300.673497626949541633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20223233867.3755.5161.4400.0750.11500.115FF35.37674.37230455.9833814234300.685088295530821633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20223233866.3955.8961.1400.08030.120300.1203FF34.39674.39230455.9833814234300.650180214123991633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 08:00:04FORECAST20223233866.4456.7461.5900.11980.119800.1198FF34.44672.44230455.9833814234300.651995505916761633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 04:00:08FORECAST20223233866.4456.7461.5900.11980.119800.1198FF34.44672.44230455.9833814234300.651995505916761633525255DRYH
2022-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20223233866.6256.4161.51500.05860.08860.010.0986FF34.62668.62230455.9833814234300.658501522359421633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-16 20:00:03FORECAST20223233865.758.0661.8800.040.0400.04FF33.7671.7230455.9833814234300.624794678334221633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-16 16:00:03FORECAST20223233865.6856.2360.95500.02980.069800.0698FF33.68671.68230455.9833814234300.624050119841331633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20223233868.1455.6361.88500.01280.042800.0428FF36.14672.14230455.9833814234300.711420313677971643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20223233866.3955.3460.86500.00720.017200.0172FF34.39671.39230455.9833814234300.650180214123991633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-16 04:00:08FORECAST20223233869.1454.8361.98500.00470.024700.0247FF37.14676.14230455.9833814234300.743984440019341643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223233868.2355.0161.6200.01010.020100.0201FF36.23659.23230455.9833814234300.714429217214821643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20223233868.955.8962.39500.01250.022500.0225FF36.9675.9230455.9833814234300.736347120471891643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 16:00:03FORECAST20223233868.955.8962.39500.01580.035800.0358FF36.9677.9230455.9833814234300.736347120471891643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20223233868.7155.2261.96500.00050.030500.0305FF36.71675.71230455.9833814234300.730219646005641643515160DRYH
2022-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20223233865.954.9460.4200.00040.050400.0504FF33.9670.9230455.9833814234300.632214293175231633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20223233865.954.9460.4200.00040.030400.0304FF33.9670.9230455.9833814234300.632214293175231633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20223233867.9258.1463.0300.00040.010400.0104FF35.92658.92230455.9833814234300.704003084275651643515230DRYL
2022-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20223233867.7356.8162.2700.00040.010400.0104FF35.73670.73230455.9833814234300.697527807620491633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20223233867.856.8162.30500.00040.010400.0104FF35.8668.8230455.9833814234300.699920817750131643515230DRYL
2022-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20223233867.9157.9262.91500.00070.020700.0207FF35.91667.91230455.9833814234300.703663869858071643515230DRYL
2022-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20223233870.4158.164.25500000FF38.41662.41230455.9833814234300.782401369020511643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 04:00:09FORECAST20223233870.4158.0964.2500000FF38.41665.41230455.9833814234300.782401369020511643515160DRYH
2022-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223233873.6859.8666.7700.00720.017200.0172FF41.68656.68230455.9833814234300.864640593066381653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20223233873.859.6666.7300.00440.01440.010.0244FF41.8669.8230455.9833814234300.867187997428231653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20223233873.8459.5966.71500.00440.01440.010.0244FF41.84669.84230455.9833814234300.868029769795931653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223233872.5357.7865.155000.020.010.03FF40.53662.53230455.9833814234300.838536968591631643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20223233871.2458.2264.73000.020.010.03FF39.24659.24230455.9833814234300.805602662513781643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 04:00:08FORECAST20223233871.2458.2264.73000.020.010.03FF39.24662.24230455.9833814234300.805602662513781643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20223233872.9358.9865.9550000.010.01FF40.93655.93230455.9833814234300.847964913093931643515160DRYH
2022-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223233869.5257.0163.2650000.020.02FF37.52668.52230455.9833814234300.75583691068411643515160DRYH
2022-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20223233869.4856.9163.1950000.010.01FF37.48667.48230455.9833814234300.754603352667791643515160DRYH
2022-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20223233858.8851.6155.24500.01320.14320.010.1532FF26.88647.88230455.9833814234300.362743662061491623525250DRYMH
2022-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20223233855.652.7754.185000.130.030.16FF23.6639.6230455.9833814234300.250468193867071623525250DRYMH
2022-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20223233855.9854.0555.015000.130.020.15FF23.98647.98230455.9833814234300.262478599381761623525250DRYMH