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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 15, 2022

[ Sunday, August 14, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 16, 2022 ]

DAY 319 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.751
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 696

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 226
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-16 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223193470.9500253.4262.1850100000FF38.95002695.95002226453.80977123269 00.750875071310616 43515160DRYH
2022-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20223193454.6254.6254.6200000FF22.62679.62227454.3562750870600.201707763793751613515222.5DRYL
2022-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20223193468.8655.5662.2100.00080.000800.0008FF36.86693.86227454.3562750870600.685672969559591633515155DRYH
2022-08-15 08:00:01FORECAST20223193467.1154.7860.94500000FF35.11692.11227454.3562750870600.626088519847471633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-15 04:00:06FORECAST20223193466.2154.3560.2800000FF34.21691.21227454.3562750870600.59411439251271633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20223193466.5853.660.0900000FF34.58679.58226453.8097712326900.607348829185211633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20223193465.5153.3959.4500000FF33.51688.51226453.8097712326900.568791761222991633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 16:00:01FORECAST20223193465.8752.6259.24500.0020.00200.002FF33.87688.87226453.8097712326900.581857067982741633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20223193465.7452.5859.1600000FF33.74688.74226453.8097712326900.57714866171891633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20223193465.4451.8758.65500.00020.000200.0002FF33.44686.44226453.8097712326900.56624205216321633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20223193465.4251.8658.6400.00020.000200.0002FF33.42687.42226453.8097712326900.565513052520531633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20223193465.2752.6158.9400000FF33.27675.27226453.8097712326900.560038621652871633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20223193465.1152.4558.78000.0100.01FF33.11684.11226453.8097712326900.554186576311751633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 16:00:03FORECAST20223193464.8952.2958.5900.00040.010400.0104FF32.89683.89226453.8097712326900.546120959200121633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20223193462.3352.1957.2600.00020.010200.0102FF30.33682.33226453.8097712326900.451737806579911623515225DRYL
2022-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20223193465.9852.7259.35000.0100.01FF33.98684.98226453.8097712326900.585831991532431633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 04:00:06FORECAST20223193466.1552.5859.365000.0100.01FF34.15686.15226453.8097712326900.591957662832221633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20223193466.2752.9559.61000.0100.01FF34.27670.27226453.8097712326900.596268270092431633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-12 20:00:03FORECAST20223193468.1652.860.48000.0200.02FF36.16688.16226453.8097712326900.662310444975941633515155DRYH
2022-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20223193466.952.259.55000.0100.01FF34.9686.9226453.8097712326900.618696197821951633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20223193467.7152.3460.025000.0100.01FF35.71686.71226453.8097712326900.646947187799321633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20223193464.6453.3659000.020.010.03FF32.64681.64226453.8097712326900.53693252509151633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-12 04:00:07FORECAST20223193468.7253.7861.25000.010.010.02FF36.72687.72226453.8097712326900.681055722181091633515155DRYH
2022-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20223193468.2853.0960.6850000.020.02FF36.28672.28226453.8097712326900.666363341695621633515155DRYH
2022-08-11 20:00:03FORECAST20223193468.2551.8460.045000.010.030.04FF36.25687.25226453.8097712326900.665351911811571633515155DRYH
2022-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20223193468.3552.560.425000.010.020.03FF36.35688.35226453.8097712326900.668718640587421633515155DRYH
2022-08-11 12:00:04FORECAST20223193468.452.3860.39000.010.010.02FF36.4685.4226453.8097712326900.670396929698891633515155DRYH
2022-08-11 08:00:04FORECAST20223193465.3552.8459.095000.010.010.02FF33.35680.35226453.8097712326900.562959815164441633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-11 04:00:07FORECAST20223193468.2952.8460.5650000.010.01FF36.29687.29226453.8097712326900.666700217119941633515155DRYH
2022-08-11 00:00:04FORECAST20223193470.5553.5862.0650000.040.04FF38.55674.55226453.8097712326900.738973899029451643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST20223193470.0351.9961.010000.060.06FF38.03691.03226453.8097712326900.723078145099261643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20223193469.9551.9860.9650000.060.06FF37.95692.95226453.8097712326900.720591275734471643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 12:00:03FORECAST20223193470.8454.2862.560000.020.02FF38.84691.84226453.8097712326900.747630809031021643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20223193470.8354.3562.590000.040.04FF38.83682.83226453.8097712326900.747334831164011643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20223193470.2453.5661.90000.040.04FF38.24684.24226453.8097712326900.729554213090461643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20223193468.3752.3760.37000.010.10.11FF36.37678.37226453.8097712326900.669390365052751633515155DRYH
2022-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20223193468.3752.3660.3650000.130.13FF36.37688.37226453.8097712326900.669390365052751633515155DRYH
2022-08-09 16:00:04FORECAST20223193468.7851.6660.220000.140.14FF36.78686.78226453.8097712326900.683038036492921633515155DRYH
2022-08-09 12:00:05FORECAST20223193469.2452.2460.74000.010.110.12FF37.24692.24226453.8097712326900.69805841595331633515155DRYH
2022-08-09 08:00:04FORECAST20223193469.8552.9861.415000.010.110.12FF37.85686.85226453.8097712326900.717467532430541643515160DRYH
2022-08-09 04:00:09FORECAST20223193469.8552.9961.42000.010.140.15FF37.85692.85226453.8097712326900.717467532430541643515160DRYH
2022-08-09 00:00:04FORECAST20223193469.8151.3360.57000.030.120.15FF37.81674.81226453.8097712326900.7162133560671643515160DRYH
2022-08-08 20:00:04FORECAST20223193470.3851.2860.83000.030.140.17FF38.38684.38226453.8097712326900.733829192570431643515160DRYH
2022-08-08 16:00:04FORECAST20223193470.3251.3960.855000.030.140.17FF38.32683.32226453.8097712326900.732001249972711643515160DRYH
2022-08-08 12:00:04FORECAST20223193465.4154.0459.725000.030.190.22FF33.41684.41226453.8097712326900.565148468995141633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-08 08:00:04FORECAST20223193455.9254.8555.385000.030.170.2FF23.92676.92226453.8097712326900.237280340605771613515222.5DRYL
2022-08-08 04:00:09FORECAST20223193455.8954.8555.37000.030.150.18FF23.89680.89226453.8097712326900.236422466264661613515222.5DRYL