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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 6, 2022

[ Friday, August 5, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 7, 2022 ]

DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.708
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 719

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 217
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-07 04:00:05OBSERVATION20223102568.8400651.2660.0500300000FF36.84006718.84006217448.79664964921 00.7080122190918116 42515155DRYH
2022-08-07 00:00:01FORECAST20223102557.1757.1757.1700000FF25.17707.17218449.3621672166600.254084639562561622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-06 12:00:01FORECAST20223102566.3857.7162.04500000FF34.38716.38218449.3621672166600.615112051820421632515225DRYL
2022-08-06 08:00:01FORECAST20223102562.4853.1857.8300.00810.008100.0081FF30.48712.48218449.3621672166600.455630320598521622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-06 04:00:07FORECAST20223102566.8951.8859.38500000FF34.89716.89218449.3621672166600.635146207274441632515225DRYL
2022-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20223102566.7150.5958.6500000FF34.71705.71217448.7966496492100.62811416827431632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 20:00:01FORECAST20223102566.6651.2858.9700000FF34.66715.66217448.7966496492100.626153102154161632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20223102566.8650.9658.9100000FF34.86715.86217448.7966496492100.633977278275861632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 12:00:03FORECAST20223102563.6651.757.6800000FF31.66712.66217448.7966496492100.504317462742731632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 08:00:03FORECAST20223102567.3951.7359.56000.0100.01FF35.39716.39217448.7966496492100.654436178694111632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 04:00:08FORECAST20223102567.5451.6559.59500000FF35.54714.54217448.7966496492100.66014853850481632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20223102566.75158.8500.0070.00700.007FF34.7703.7217448.7966496492100.627722218900981632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 20:00:03FORECAST20223102566.5451.0758.80500.00710.017100.0171FF34.54712.54217448.7966496492100.621433292572881632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 16:00:03FORECAST20223102566.3551.3958.8700.00180.011800.0118FF34.35712.35217448.7966496492100.613923349393961632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20223102565.7951.2658.52500.00220.012200.0122FF33.79711.79217448.7966496492100.591549327492961632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20223102565.951.0258.4600.00290.042900.0429FF33.9712.9217448.7966496492100.595970350174251632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 04:00:09FORECAST20223102565.8951.0258.45500.00290.042900.0429FF33.89713.89217448.7966496492100.595568935951241632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 00:00:04FORECAST20223102566.9852.1159.545000.0700.07FF34.98696.98217448.7966496492100.638645428911721632515225DRYL
2022-08-03 20:00:03FORECAST20223102569.452.5760.985000.0800.08FF37.4712.4217448.7966496492100.727614244083441642515155DRYH
2022-08-03 16:00:04FORECAST20223102569.4453.0361.235000.0900.09FF37.44712.44217448.7966496492100.728989156497411642515155DRYH
2022-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST2022310257052.861.4000.100.1FF38713217448.7966496492100.7478674711477516425251110DRYVH
2022-08-03 08:00:04FORECAST20223102567.9752.7360.35000.0800.08FF35.97705.97217448.7966496492100.676317715328871632515225DRYL
2022-08-03 04:00:10FORECAST20223102569.952.4861.19000.0600.06FF37.9705.9217448.7966496492100.744547888301491642515155DRYH
2022-08-03 00:00:04FORECAST20223102569.0552.0260.535000.0600.06FF37.05688.05217448.7966496492100.715438207297161642515155DRYH
2022-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20223102568.6151.1859.895000.0900.09FF36.61700.61217448.7966496492100.699772551363271642515155DRYH
2022-08-02 16:00:04FORECAST20223102569.9652.9861.47000.0700.07FF37.96703.96217448.7966496492100.746542370377611642515155DRYH
2022-08-02 12:00:04FORECAST20223102571.2951.9561.62000.0700.07FF39.29702.29217448.7966496492100.788577883125921642515155DRYH
2022-08-02 08:00:05FORECAST20223102567.6951.9559.82000.0500.05FF35.69697.69217448.7966496492100.665824380645981632515225DRYL
2022-08-02 04:00:08FORECAST20223102570.5551.9161.23000.030.010.04FF38.55704.55217448.7966496492100.765711497352351642515155DRYH
2022-08-02 00:00:04FORECAST20223102571.0152.0661.535000.0400.04FF39.01691.01217448.7966496492100.780083094110631642515155DRYH
2022-08-01 20:00:04FORECAST20223102573.3152.9263.115000.0200.02FF41.31714.31217448.7966496492100.843972898637181642515155DRYH
2022-08-01 16:00:04FORECAST20223102573.3953.0263.205000.0200.02FF41.39710.39217448.7966496492100.845950070286671642515155DRYH
2022-08-01 12:00:05FORECAST20223102576.1753.7664.965000.0200.02FF44.17715.17217448.7966496492100.904503519360281652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20223102576.2253.9365.075000.0200.02FF44.22705.22217448.7966496492100.905381199222351652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 04:00:10FORECAST20223102576.2153.8465.0250000.010.01FF44.21709.21217448.7966496492100.905206139047031652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 00:00:04FORECAST20223102566.7949.6758.230000.020.02FF34.79684.79217448.7966496492100.631244955420671632515225DRYL
2022-07-31 20:00:04FORECAST20223102564.4949.6757.080000.060.06FF32.49695.49217448.7966496492100.538567992589321632515225DRYL
2022-07-31 16:00:03FORECAST20223102566.3148.2757.290000.030.03FF34.31690.31217448.7966496492100.612336750002281632515225DRYL
2022-07-31 12:00:05FORECAST20223102568.0347.557.7650000.020.02FF36.03701.03217448.7966496492100.678548537671261632515150DRYMH
2022-07-31 08:00:09FORECAST20223102568.752.4660.580000.030.03FF36.7699.7217448.7966496492100.703008431594151642515155DRYH
2022-07-31 04:00:10FORECAST20223102568.752.4560.5750000.020.02FF36.7702.7217448.7966496492100.703008431594151642515155DRYH
2022-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20223102572.5455.1863.860000.020.02FF40.54690.54217448.7966496492100.824093868485231642515155DRYH
2022-07-30 20:00:05FORECAST20223102569.2953.1561.22000.070.020.09FF37.29696.29217448.7966496492100.723815482413981642515155DRYH
2022-07-30 16:00:05FORECAST20223102569.2853.1561.215000.070.030.1FF37.28695.28217448.7966496492100.723468856909331642515155DRYH
2022-07-30 12:00:04FORECAST20223102567.6856.6462.16000.020.020.04FF35.68693.68217448.7966496492100.665447149997091632515225DRYL
2022-07-30 08:00:05FORECAST20223102559.7857.6358.705000.040.070.11FF27.78679.78217448.7966496492100.347816183709411622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-30 04:00:09FORECAST20223102559.1157.6258.365000.040.060.1FF27.11683.11217448.7966496492100.322524765170281622515222.5DRYL