MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 28, 2022

[ Wednesday, July 27, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, July 29, 2022 ]

DAY 301 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/29/2022 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 67.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.971
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 51
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 655

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 208
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 16

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-29 04:00:09OBSERVATION20223011682.9000467.7100275.305030000.030.03FF50.90004654.90004208443.60911382386 00.9710132832342416 52515160DRYH
2022-07-29 00:00:01FORECAST20223011670.1770.1770.170000.030.03FF38.17642.17209444.1943066208300.684735270419511632515150DRYMH
2022-07-28 12:00:02FORECAST20223011681.3669.1775.26500.00110.00110.030.0311FF49.36653.36209444.1943066208300.957670661191621652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20223011678.5869.0173.79500.00170.00170.030.0317FF46.58650.58209444.1943066208300.921445297540051652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 04:00:07FORECAST20223011675.6967.5571.620000.030.03FF43.69647.69209444.1943066208300.862953136616171652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20223011679.8666.6673.260000.030.03FF47.86638.86208443.6091138238600.940295736070951652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20223011679.8566.373.0750000.030.03FF47.85649.85208443.6091138238600.940163560831121652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 16:00:01FORECAST20223011679.9866.6873.330000.030.03FF47.98649.98208443.6091138238600.941864112899741652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20223011679.3466.6272.982.9383613333333000.030.03FF47.34649.34208444.756367699481.30685491360190.933114841942951652514148DRYM
2022-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20223011679.3166.6172.962.17352000.030.03FF47.31646.31208444.458566851740.966039584223580.932681076936591652514148DRYM
2022-07-27 04:00:07FORECAST20223011679.567.3673.431.27856848484850.00020.00020.030.0302FF47.5646.5208444.109370596250.567824245070260.935391953730691652514148DRYM
2022-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20223011679.467.0973.245000.010.030.04FF47.4629.4208443.6091138238600.933975903818941652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20223011679.2167.5573.38000.010.030.04FF47.21645.21208443.6091138238600.931219532107121652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20223011679.0467.3273.1800.00250.01250.030.0425FF47.04645.04208443.6091138238600.928679111757051652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20223011678.8667.6373.24500.04370.05370.030.0837FF46.86644.86208443.6091138238600.925911665339431652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20223011679.2567.3473.29500.04420.05420.030.0842FF47.25640.25208443.6091138238600.931807049230581652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 04:00:07FORECAST20223011679.3267.9473.6300.00330.01330.030.0433FF47.32645.32208443.6091138238600.932825905417551652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20223011680.3968.2774.3300.02990.04990.030.0799FF48.39637.39208443.6091138238600.946980354380461652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20223011682.4367.9875.20500.03070.05070.030.0807FF50.43648.43208443.6091138238600.967371946288721652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 16:00:03FORECAST20223011681.6867.2974.48500.05220.08220.030.1122FF49.68647.68208443.6091138238600.960789405810791652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 12:00:03FORECAST20223011685.6668.0976.87500.04320.08320.030.1132FF53.66651.66208443.6091138238600.986232198247261652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 08:00:04FORECAST20223011685.6568.0476.84500.0560.0960.030.126FF53.65651.65208443.6091138238600.9861928773656816525251120DRYVH
2022-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20223011683.0968.1675.625000.020.030.05FF51.09649.09208443.6091138238600.972386064117371652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 00:00:04FORECAST20223011686.3366.8976.61000.020.030.05FF54.33642.33208443.6091138238600.988656129385791652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 20:00:04FORECAST20223011686.3965.9376.1600.00030.02030.030.0503FF54.39655.39208443.6091138238600.988853925144181652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20223011686.5668.3877.47000.020.030.05FF54.56655.56208443.6091138238600.989398165992311652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20223011687.669.2878.44000.010.030.04FF55.6657.6208443.6091138238600.992250484165961652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 08:00:04FORECAST20223011684.2169.3976.800.00790.01790.030.0479FF52.21651.21208443.6091138238600.979424421800851652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20223011689.3669.3979.375000.010.030.04FF57.36660.36208443.6091138238600.995566468430741652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 00:00:04FORECAST20223011689.5969.7479.6650000.030.03FF57.59656.59208443.6091138238600.995889249596581652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 20:00:04FORECAST20223011689.469.4379.4150000.030.03FF57.4662.4208443.6091138238600.995624181134181652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20223011689.0871.1280.10000.030.03FF57.08666.08208443.6091138238600.995143082985941652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20223011687.668.9278.260000.030.03FF55.6662.6208443.6091138238600.992250484165961652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20223011687.8669.3278.590000.040.04FF55.86652.86208443.6091138238600.992848238270021652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20223011688.2469.3578.7950000.030.03FF56.24663.24208443.6091138238600.993648742111031652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 00:00:04FORECAST20223011681.9765.773.8350000.030.03FF49.97642.97208443.6091138238600.963452225863161652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20223011682.1165.2873.6950000.030.03FF50.11654.11208443.6091138238600.964683893615531652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 16:00:04FORECAST20223011682.0465.3173.6750000.040.04FF50.04653.04208443.6091138238600.964072370304991652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 12:00:05FORECAST20223011682.864.7273.760000.030.03FF50.8653.8208443.6091138238600.97026788193361652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20223011681.9964.6273.3050000.030.03FF49.99637.99208443.6091138238600.96363029452581652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 04:00:10FORECAST20223011681.9964.6273.3050000.030.03FF49.99646.99208443.6091138238600.96363029452581652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 00:00:05FORECAST20223011682.2765.6773.970000.030.03FF50.27642.27208443.6091138238600.96604973162471652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 20:00:04FORECAST20223011682.336674.1650000.030.03FF50.33656.33208443.6091138238600.966550621419591652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 16:00:04FORECAST20223011683.5666.0174.7850000.030.03FF51.56656.56208443.6091138238600.975551785796011652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 12:00:05FORECAST20223011679.8167.7273.7650000.030.03FF47.81658.81208443.6091138238600.939632574285641652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 08:00:05FORECAST20223011669.5666.3967.9750000.030.03FF37.56641.56208443.6091138238600.660305749503471632515150DRYMH
2022-07-21 04:00:10FORECAST20223011668.0466.3367.1850000.040.04FF36.04642.04208443.6091138238600.596634943879231632515150DRYMH