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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 21, 2022

[ Wednesday, July 20, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, July 22, 2022 ]

DAY 294 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/22/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.767
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 536

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 11 in
SWE DAY: 201
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 1
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-22 04:00:07OBSERVATION2022294970.9751.7499661.3599810.852996666667000.250.25FF38.97535.97201443.75818111724 4.81610606047140.7666430513472216 42413130DRYL
2022-07-22 00:00:02FORECAST2022294952.4452.4452.4411.8882613333330.00030.00030.250.2503FF20.44517.44202444.746067831285.28725748135070.12922163886411161241227DRYL
2022-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST2022294964.850.457.612.0494386666670.00220.00220.250.2522FF32.8529.8202444.808754752335.35969580878460.54350594418523163241229DRYL
2022-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST2022294964.8551.2358.0411.5148533333330.00340.00340.250.2534FF32.85529.85202444.60073910835.11951230272370.54549314718054163241229DRYL
2022-07-21 04:00:07FORECAST2022294964.751.1357.91510.712367083333000.250.25FF32.7529.7202444.287948238974.75937559223680.539528321624021632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022294964.6250.9257.7711.6291986666670.00050.00050.250.2505FF32.62511.62201444.06178051555.16408266588850.53634335394427163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 20:00:01FORECAST2022294964.2950.7957.5413.7862013333330.00020.00020.250.2502FF32.29524.29201444.902322639566.13351299357660.523182965702163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 16:00:01FORECAST2022294964.0451.0957.56513.7954946666670.00110.00110.250.2511FF32.04524.04201444.905934117316.13769744128370.51319533366306163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022294964.4250.9357.67511.639550666667000.250.25FF32.42524.42201444.065825496775.16872667520490.5283711819951163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST2022294964.1450.4257.2811.054836000.250.25FF32.14524.14201443.837185044144.90654729136460.517191731488171632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022294964.1850.5157.34510.512744212121000.250.25FF32.18521.18201443.624907819544.66371518203270.518789829615611632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-20 00:00:04FORECAST2022294963.0750.1356.611.160434666667000.250.25FF31.07509.07201443.878502325544.9538770251420.474421931084071622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022294963.0450.3156.67513.400858666667000.250.25FF31.04519.04201444.752499736625.96006539061720.47322472061977162241228DRYL
2022-07-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022294963.6650.9257.2913.388613333333000.250.25FF31.66519.66201444.747736293385.95455547210740.49800035071428162241228DRYL
2022-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022294963.2950.9657.12511.3367000.250.25FF31.29519.29201443.947444463815.03289899365280.48320783721121162241228DRYL
2022-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022294962.0749.7655.91510.906910666667000.250.25FF30.07515.07201443.779288093134.84026105094870.43470549811241622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 04:00:08FORECAST2022294961.3649.4955.42510.7856436969700.010.250.26FF29.36513.36201443.731808811954.78593318685750.406878185649241622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 00:00:03FORECAST2022294961.349.555.411.1043493333330.00110.00110.220.2211FF29.3507.3201443.856559361144.92873828903750.404545928473991622413212DRYL
2022-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST2022294963.6850.5657.1212.050612000.220.22FF31.68516.68201444.226359289315.3531994959680.49880020721324162241228DRYL
2022-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022294964.9850.6857.8311.911212000.220.22FF32.98517.98201444.171937507145.29062611209830.55065442659241163241229DRYL
2022-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022294967.1751.7159.4410.436688000.220.22FF35.17521.17201443.595101649614.62966367424530.635651344683211632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022294966.3650.8858.6210.0963333333330.00020.00020.230.2302FF34.36521.36201443.461647255914.47733661124470.604748450618791632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022294963.4150.8757.1410.0685440.00020.00020.230.2302FF31.41518.41201443.450745854464.46490334646850.488003862427281622413212DRYL
2022-07-18 00:00:04FORECAST2022294966.8550.7858.81511.615813333333000.240.24FF34.85517.85201444.056550119945.15807799563720.62353534986011163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 20:00:04FORECAST2022294967.8349.5358.6812.514078666667000.260.26FF35.83535.83201444.40715827915.56134613873440.66020544096119163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST2022294966.8751.3559.1112.83776000.280.28FF34.87530.87201444.533300647855.7068118257250.62429631740372163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 12:00:05FORECAST2022294966.5751.3358.9511.744372000.270.27FF34.57532.57201444.106777807185.21575520628880.61283264084904163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 08:00:05FORECAST2022294962.850.8456.8211.691126666667000.260.26FF30.8522.8201444.085976921315.19186540707750.46365664605573162241228DRYL
2022-07-17 04:00:08FORECAST2022294967.1948.9358.0610.88896752381000.270.27FF35.19532.19201443.772263791794.83222176839620.636404258161841632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST2022294966.9449.4158.17512.847292000.270.27FF34.94516.94201444.5370138075.71109682118660.62695588224751163241229DRYL
2022-07-16 20:00:04FORECAST2022294964.8248.4956.65513.96324000.290.29FF32.82529.82201444.971106895216.21323835864350.54430095878372163241229DRYL
2022-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2022294964.6349.6857.15513.711281333333000.260.26FF32.63527.63201444.873204900736.09978167005560.53674160654416163241229DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:04FORECAST2022294961.5349.7355.6312.614996000.270.27FF29.53525.53201444.446498061115.60669079525490.41350393823981162241228DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:04FORECAST2022294961.3649.8755.61511.957410666667000.270.27FF29.36521.36201444.189975608845.31136195237150.40687818564924162241228DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:09FORECAST2022294961.4449.8455.6411.05119975000.270.27FF29.44528.44201443.835762101864.90491766318110.409992991471641622413212DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST2022294968.3851.8260.111.318504000.280.28FF36.38516.38201443.94032894485.0247403889230.680165694435671632412118DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST2022294969.2254.2161.71512.872697333333000.270.27FF37.22538.22201444.546909931685.72251782201910.709654514511881642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:04FORECAST2022294968.9154.1961.5512.841264000.280.28FF36.91529.91201444.534665629945.70838699850580.698919885757161632412118DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022294971.8656.163.9810.20316000.270.27FF39.86540.86201443.503546832594.52513764890040.793059615228951642413130DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST2022294973.8656.8565.3559.6102453333333000.290.29FF41.86541.86201443.270850094784.2599416185260.845587882665491642413130DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2022294973.8256.8765.3459.1840835000.290.29FF41.82545.82201443.103380985864.06949845010650.844632060487721642413130DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:04FORECAST2022294974.4754.6964.5810.685285333333000.260.26FF42.47530.47201443.692504751484.74098101353090.859683323961031652413133DRYL
2022-07-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022294974.4754.764.58513.522396000.260.26FF42.47542.47201444.799769812526.01475862811380.859683323961031652412122DRYL
2022-07-14 16:00:05FORECAST2022294973.9353.463.66514.542093333333000.260.26FF41.93542.93201445.195791114366.47407874599220.847251222740871642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:04FORECAST2022294965.452.8559.12513.391414666667000.260.26FF33.4532.4201444.748826027085.95581595184180.56726649697348163241229DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022294955.3551.9253.63513.618828000.280.28FF23.35524.35201444.837265174286.05816220239890.20097505438649161241227DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022294952.7251.8352.27513.200529333333000.270.27FF20.72523.72201444.674552868165.8699394789230.13523561094928161241227DRYL