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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 20, 2022

[ Tuesday, July 19, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 21, 2022 ]

DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/21/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.832
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 509

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 200
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 1
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-21 04:00:07OBSERVATION2022293872.2800451.7899262.0349813.54492041666700.030.380.41FF40.28004509.28004200444.2256744225 6.01700140709290.831568711508316 42412120DRYL
2022-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST2022293854.3354.3354.3314.87792933333300.030.380.41FF22.33491.33201445.325995842196.62552869643640.16153194284951161231226DRYL
2022-07-20 12:00:01FORECAST2022293866.8454.8660.8514.8512720.00220.03220.380.4122FF34.84503.84201445.315664763586.61350406326470.64423214735718163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 08:00:01FORECAST2022293866.7854.7260.7514.26786933333300.030.380.41FF34.78503.78201445.089391159546.35047727471720.64180285651673163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 04:00:06FORECAST2022293864.0552.0758.0613.72555887878800.030.380.41FF32.05501.05201444.878754311556.10620953622490.52669705040911163241229DRYL
2022-07-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022293866.7754.3660.56514.29830133333300.030.380.41FF34.77489.77200444.519462511096.3558732235150.64139741313725163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 20:00:01FORECAST2022293866.4452.259.3216.5276826666670.00020.03020.380.4102FF34.44500.44200445.385545061147.36119095309090.62793089484046163241229DRYL
2022-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST2022293865.8352.6359.2316.5661680.00060.03060.380.4106FF33.83499.83200445.400453039367.37857873232620.60263330605996163241229DRYL
2022-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022293865.6752.459.03514.49752666666700.030.380.41FF33.67499.67200444.597058389746.44555770992690.59592089715773163241229DRYL
2022-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022293865.2252.5658.8913.9471426666670.00020.03020.380.4102FF33.22497.22200444.382594782276.19786744801180.57689645589538163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022293865.0252.3758.69513.7961370303030.00020.04020.380.4202FF33.02496.02200444.323701225146.12995066791350.56838042700211163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022293865.2452.1558.69514.0778880.00080.00080.380.3808FF33.24490.24200444.433568395976.25668599931880.57774615473573163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST2022293865.3552.3958.8715.1320080.00020.00020.380.3802FF33.35497.35200444.843919768756.73138175269210.58241293115332163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2022293865.6252.4959.05515.1373653333330.00020.00020.380.3802FF33.62496.62200444.846002484586.7337964566820.59381736440298163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST2022293865.6152.4859.04513.7803746666670.00020.00020.380.3802FF33.61497.61200444.317552459376.12286234386640.59339633066158163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022293865.5752.6359.113.3843146666670.00080.01080.380.3908FF33.57498.57200444.162971943995.94481697978020.59171112065449163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022293865.8152.8359.3213.2962826666670.00080.01080.380.3908FF33.81498.81200444.128592304215.90525930362560.60179587068928163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2022293866.2653.1759.71514.9503706666670.00020.02020.380.4002FF34.26495.26200444.773289703516.64952554370020.62051781640248163231228DRYL
2022-07-17 20:00:04FORECAST2022293868.6453.0860.8615.8841146666670.00080.02080.40.4208FF36.64511.64200445.136031487697.07059176641540.714022143862041642412120DRYL
2022-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST2022293867.9352.6460.28516.1800253333330.00020.04020.40.4402FF35.93507.93200445.250807747547.20416934904230.68726246911673163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 12:00:05FORECAST2022293870.2453.4661.8515.0459653333330.00040.03040.40.4304FF38.24510.24200444.810465955886.6926028506760.770005159791191642412120DRYL
2022-07-17 08:00:04FORECAST2022293867.0353.5560.2914.8798333333330.00130.03130.390.4213FF35.03504.03200444.745852325176.61774415828980.65188595137434163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 04:00:08FORECAST2022293870.5451.5761.05514.0882248571430.00110.03110.40.4311FF38.54508.54200444.437597698956.26133681135110.779775247930591642412120DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022293871.4952.261.84516.0836133333330.00030.03030.40.4303FF39.49494.49200445.213421446667.16064052135840.809100152988311642312118DRYL
2022-07-16 20:00:04FORECAST2022293871.5651.7461.6517.13346933333300.030.420.45FF39.56508.56200445.620038314837.6350172607860.81116200036961642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2022293871.4754.5463.00516.92415066666700.020.40.42FF39.47507.47200445.539054190467.54037008100350.808508532088141642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:04FORECAST2022293870.4853.6662.0715.60225600.030.40.43FF38.48508.48200445.026625394166.94341933621580.777840454781591642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022293871.3954.3762.8815.01240266666700.030.40.43FF39.39504.39200444.797414643366.67747789371840.806130859922411642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:09FORECAST2022293871.3254.3962.85514.1107837500.020.410.43FF39.32511.32200444.446390779436.27148690875650.804035737722521642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST2022293867.4954.9261.20514.84969733333300.010.430.44FF35.49492.49200444.734128624856.60416720388280.67015689172918163231228DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST2022293870.4252.6361.52516.56761733333300.010.420.43FF38.42513.42200445.401014435937.37923356705290.775896014376551642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022293870.4453.566216.52596133333300.010.430.44FF38.44505.44200445.384878238027.36041327621290.776545230984741642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022293872.0456.2464.1414.233132000.430.43FF40.04513.04200444.494071312926.32654279021420.82492876195751642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST2022293872.9155.864.35513.838712000.450.45FF40.91511.91200444.34030813316.14909755424530.848215155897151642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2022293872.9155.864.35513.41173016666700.010.440.45FF40.91515.91200444.173677106095.9571375044830.848215155897151642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:04FORECAST2022293869.2353.7961.5114.83076800.010.410.42FF37.23500.23200444.726764155116.59563946257520.735397068033191642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022293869.2253.8761.54517.00723200.010.410.42FF37.22512.22200445.571203008557.57793282208550.735041657036231642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022293868.2852.6760.47517.07381600.010.410.42FF36.28513.28200445.596963188137.6080405596330.700589406861121642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:04FORECAST2022293868.7451.3760.05515.0075800.010.410.42FF36.74510.74200444.795539190526.67530463804490.717702034669711642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022293867.4252.0959.75514.5385400.010.430.44FF35.42513.42200444.613027718136.46402428800120.66740123856809163241229DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022293867.4252.0959.75513.75698133333300.010.420.43FF35.42515.42200444.308426462556.1123427290880.66740123856809163241229DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST2022293868.652.5560.57514.02941200.020.410.43FF36.6513.6200444.414671058196.23487651911990.71254383735891642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2022293868.6452.5660.616.49511733333300.020.40.42FF36.64531.64200445.372929161867.34647872361530.714022143862041642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 16:00:04FORECAST202229386953.0361.01515.986498666667000.40.4FF37540200445.175753411347.11680158834270.727161817424471642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022293866.0353.7459.88515.954026666667000.390.39FF34.03529.03200445.163156367047.10214486769730.61098105727636163241229DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022293857.4654.3755.91516.11994000.40.4FF25.46515.46200445.22750914667.17704073379270.25838831656264162241228DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:08FORECAST2022293856.5754.5155.5416.315248416667000.380.38FF24.57522.57200445.30322864857.26523279614390.2281535940943161241227DRYL