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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 18, 2022

[ Sunday, July 17, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 19, 2022 ]

DAY 291 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/19/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.319
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 488

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 20 in
SWE DAY: 198
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.62 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-19 04:00:06OBSERVATION2022291658.2499438.6700848.4600120.1323863636360.0299999999999730.0299999999999730.380.40999999999997FF26.24994488.24994198445.62266500837 8.97144766434180.3185741466039716 2231227DRYL
2022-07-19 00:00:01FORECAST2022291650.4450.4450.4420.899194666667000.380.38FF18.44480.44199446.495397891419.33139423830330.1057650230262161231226DRYL
2022-07-18 12:00:01FORECAST2022291657.2942.0849.68520.6260080.00210.00210.380.3821FF25.29487.29199446.390302667989.20724995395220.28527947406487162231227DRYL
2022-07-18 08:00:01FORECAST2022291658.141.8949.99520.3069186666670.00680.00680.380.3868FF26.1488.1199446.267456266099.06231693797560.3132665466705162231227DRYL
2022-07-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022291657.9440.349.1220.2610893333330.00970.00970.380.3897FF25.94487.94199446.249804223999.04150714836470.30764518015447162231227DRYL
2022-07-18 00:00:02FORECAST2022291657.7937.9147.8521.963120.01610.01610.380.3961FF25.79482.79198446.329120471669.80278003241360.30241578421047162231227DRYL
2022-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2022291658.0537.8847.96522.9940066666670.0180.0380.380.418FF26.05497.05198446.7254824106710.2720087207210.31150512526268162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2022291655.9737.8146.8923.1228560.04080.06080.380.4408FF23.97494.97198446.7749503043210.3307128402940.24239709745522161231123DRYL
2022-07-17 12:00:03FORECAST2022291655.9939.7947.8922.0944120.03390.05390.380.4339FF23.99494.99198446.379658156049.86249607571880.24301976428101161231226DRYL
2022-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022291656.739.9348.31521.887280.0270.0370.380.417FF24.7491.7198446.299920015089.76829131334760.26567340746667162231227DRYL
2022-07-17 04:00:07FORECAST2022291656.8739.9448.40521.2036928571430.0280.0480.380.428FF24.87492.87198446.036466424089.45762023714150.27125194964216162231227DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022291656.140.2148.15523.2727720.02580.04580.380.4258FF24.1478.1198446.8324857491510.3990305630330.24645981972454161231123DRYL
2022-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST2022291655.8139.7747.7924.3783880.02760.06760.380.4476FF23.81489.81198447.2561281792310.9033834281310.2374469725706161231123DRYL
2022-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022291656.2739.6747.9724.2625493333330.02320.04320.380.4232FF24.27490.27198447.2117976793210.8504983036430.25182710171849162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST2022291655.7239.5947.65522.8928213333330.03490.05490.380.4349FF23.72489.72198446.6866239417210.2259170738880.23468706383415161231123DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022291657.4939.8548.6722.3181106666670.02710.04710.380.4271FF25.49489.49198446.465726743929.96427149834450.29207843999983162231227DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:08FORECAST2022291659.4439.7749.60521.672659750.01580.04580.380.4258FF27.44491.44198446.217254909749.67071474023780.36194953086926162231227DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST2022291658.240.6849.4422.4697933333330.00840.05840.380.4384FF26.2474.2198446.5240591903710.0333033283690.31680215660945162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022291664.7941.0952.9424.1540933333330.00570.04570.380.4257FF32.79492.79198447.170280640310.8009926944790.57110024822702163231124DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022291660.1440.3550.24524.2806466666670.00670.05670.380.4367FF28.14487.14198447.2187242388810.8587598259620.38836287034896162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022291662.0940.9151.522.3331466666670.00380.05380.380.4338FF30.09490.09198446.471510126449.9711137181420.46433203049769162231227DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022291663.5141.0352.2721.8923693333330.00450.06450.390.4545FF31.51490.51198446.30187972259.77060558504580.520652559543163231228DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2022291662.8142.652.70521.58215550.00560.05560.390.4456FF30.81490.81198446.182381951559.62957754863880.49287048945723162231227DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022291663.1344.8253.97522.6520920.00590.03590.380.4159FF31.13478.13198446.5941358707310.1162914524040.50557469781623163231124DRYL
2022-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2022291662.2543.8153.0324.7912186666670.0060.0360.380.416FF30.25490.25198447.4140090301211.0919385323960.47066325376164162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022291662.5742.4752.5224.6704053333330.0060.0360.380.416FF30.57493.57198447.3678229299711.0367455247730.4833463726278162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:04FORECAST2022291664.9644.0254.4922.692620.0060.0360.380.416FF32.96490.96198446.6097106641910.1347444524120.57773181512957163231124DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022291668.5543.4656.00522.1225560.00920.05920.380.4392FF36.55495.55198446.390489315699.87529859775380.709997538687711642312118DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022291668.9145.0556.9821.3382093333330.00920.04920.380.4292FF36.91497.91198446.088345055249.51872648794890.722139067905781642312118DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST2022291668.7447.2157.97521.4800413333330.01720.04720.380.4272FF36.74494.74198446.143025851819.58317063587530.716436515067581642312118DRYL
2022-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2022291676.247.4361.81523.4030160.01720.03720.380.4172FF44.2513.2198446.8824536023310.4583972117750.90578672456531652411111DRYL
2022-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022291677.0950.2763.6822.52397600.020.380.4FF45.09519.09198446.5448907153210.0579664013940.919840992976441652411111DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022291670.3548.0459.19521.91570.00070.01070.380.3907FF38.35509.35198446.310863144759.78121498342150.768080349882861642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022291672.247.7559.97521.48979200.010.390.4FF40.2504.2198446.146784323719.58760159658540.820355489000671642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2022291672.247.7359.96521.2949990833330.00170.00170.380.3817FF40.2512.2198446.071682199159.49909606353190.820355489000671642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2022291669.548.7359.11522.826504000.380.38FF37.5495.5198446.6611505039510.1957125386230.7414854411384164231119DRYL
2022-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2022291673.4249.7161.56524.621886666667000.380.38FF41.42514.42198447.349270590711.01458304090.850415880624361652411111DRYL
2022-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2022291673.3149.7561.5324.468984000.380.38FF41.31515.31198447.2907894308810.9447511699320.847851542060961642411110DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:04FORECAST2022291665.0350.3257.67521.97684000.380.38FF33.03520.03198446.334402442899.80901974898310.58045618101844163241229DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2022291662.4449.8656.1521.8695840.00090.00090.380.3809FF30.44506.44198446.29310576589.7602445651660.47819109422727162241228DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:07FORECAST2022291662.5149.7756.1421.373507750.00090.00090.380.3809FF30.51511.51198446.101955571159.53476360469010.48096661506466162241228DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2022291653.7742.9248.34522.0657653333330.01710.01710.380.3971FF21.77490.77198446.3686327519.84946550244450.1794053990253161231226DRYL
2022-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2022291660.2542.7251.48525.5167106666670.00460.01460.380.3946FF28.25510.25198447.6910616940711.42360328930.39256446415468162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2022291658.9842.7250.8526.0962320.00460.01460.380.3946FF26.98507.98198447.912004224111.6888155778170.34493470311128162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2022291651.4944.3347.9123.708446666667000.380.38FF19.49501.49198446.9995666589410.5976653861570.12616058637691161241123.5DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022291645.6844.3545.01523.567461333333000.380.38FF13.68490.68198446.9455191225810.5333712400280.042321141804521161231123DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:09FORECAST2022291645.5444.9145.22523.18453825000.380.38FF13.54492.54198446.7986256516910.3588198264690.041074449248236161231123DRYL