Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 17, 2022

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DAY 290 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/18/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.33°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.05°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.69°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.030 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 493 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 22 in SWE DAY: 197 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.80 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 9.85 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 5 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-18 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	290	5	44.33	39.05006	41.69003	22.099693333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	12.33	493.33	197	445.80482580073	9.8521499367161	0.030357241601817	16	1	2	3	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2022-07-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	290	5	39.48	39.48	39.48	23.959109333333	0.0023	0.0023	0.38	0.3823	F	F	7.48	488.48	198	447.09561184728	10.712012646702	0.0092542979159683	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	53.22	39.51	46.365	24.024910666667	0.0185	0.0185	0.38	0.3985	F	F	21.22	502.22	198	447.12081449081	10.742037625349	0.15886228308411	16	1	2	4	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-17 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	290	5	49.24	40.19	44.715	23.857138666667	0.0127	0.0127	0.38	0.3927	F	F	17.24	498.24	198	447.05654762362	10.665490048498	0.082102001345844	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	290	5	49.86	40.23	45.045	23.184648857143	0.0195	0.0195	0.38	0.3995	F	F	17.86	498.86	198	446.79866810243	10.358870229794	0.091762962536075	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	52.21	40.71	46.46	25.200701333333	0.016	0.016	0.38	0.396	F	F	20.21	485.21	197	446.99810696986	11.264665790313	0.13598181731834	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51.89	40.88	46.385	26.264825333333	0.0386	0.0386	0.38	0.4186	F	F	19.89	496.89	197	447.40542520484	11.751025346191	0.1292268758843	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51.92	40.93	46.425	26.197804	0.0213	0.0213	0.38	0.4013	F	F	19.92	496.92	197	447.37980370254	11.720368410958	0.12985011841385	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	52.1	41.06	46.58	24.772534666667	0.0209	0.0209	0.38	0.4009	F	F	20.1	497.1	197	446.8339053501	11.069208410527	0.13363313218586	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51.39	40.71	46.05	24.378224	0.0118	0.0218	0.38	0.4018	F	F	19.39	495.39	197	446.68252944742	10.889326759756	0.11914308501651	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51.19	40.49	45.84	23.85877975	0.0122	0.0322	0.38	0.4122	F	F	19.19	495.19	197	446.48288319514	10.652536772298	0.11526883939213	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	50.42	40.6	45.51	24.626174666667	0.0262	0.0462	0.38	0.4262	F	F	18.42	479.42	197	446.77773542466	11.002426549746	0.10118834317645	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	50.72	41.02	45.87	26.744746666667	0.0152	0.0352	0.38	0.4152	F	F	18.72	490.72	197	447.58876635046	11.970648166889	0.10651794280551	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	50.48	40.42	45.45	26.740045333333	0.0229	0.0529	0.38	0.4329	F	F	18.48	490.48	197	447.58697141518	11.968495906251	0.10223846238163	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51	40.68	45.84	24.966658666667	0.0211	0.0511	0.38	0.4311	F	F	19	491	197	446.90837389788	11.157808826383	0.11167179707	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	50.38	40.55	45.465	24.600665333333	0.0311	0.0711	0.38	0.4511	F	F	18.38	490.38	197	446.76794333575	10.990788655664	0.10049262976713	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	290	5	51.25	42.06	46.655	24.393716833333	0.0298	0.0598	0.38	0.4398	F	F	19.25	491.25	197	446.6884800095	10.896392294064	0.11642162080917	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	53.56	43.42	48.49	25.518538666667	0.0064	0.0264	0.38	0.4064	F	F	21.56	477.56	197	447.11988193676	11.409845995839	0.16710038046411	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	57.03	43.51	50.27	27.543357333333	0.0145	0.0345	0.38	0.4145	F	F	25.03	491.03	197	447.89335930947	12.336486842688	0.26620113883423	16	2	2	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	56.98	43.46	50.22	27.403629333333	0.0089	0.0289	0.38	0.4089	F	F	24.98	493.98	197	447.84011113606	12.272444406171	0.26458924933926	16	2	2	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	52	43.37	47.685	25.730665333333	0.0097	0.0297	0.38	0.4097	F	F	20	489	197	447.20110064337	11.506781857353	0.13152223161033	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	52.91	42.98	47.945	25.189137333333	0.017	0.047	0.38	0.427	F	F	20.91	489.91	197	446.99367452985	11.259385054864	0.15158650742043	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	290	5	58.97	44.81	51.89	24.417801333333	0.009	0.039	0.38	0.419	F	F	26.97	491.97	197	446.69773003535	10.907376428054	0.33230461633809	16	2	2	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	63.02	43.34	53.18	24.747085333333	0.0146	0.0346	0.38	0.4146	F	F	31.02	489.02	197	446.82413992473	11.057595119711	0.48592137055703	16	2	2	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	59.9	46.32	53.11	26.937653333333	0.0008	0.0208	0.38	0.4008	F	F	27.9	499.9	197	447.66239824898	12.0589744944	0.36613615301883	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	62.65	46.81	54.73	26.629005333333	0.001	0.021	0.38	0.401	F	F	30.65	504.65	197	447.54457090903	11.917666765641	0.47142776826963	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	60.72	46.19	53.455	25.290164	0.001	0.011	0.38	0.391	F	F	28.72	501.72	197	447.032393292	11.305522539667	0.39686551136981	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	55.8	45.63	50.715	25.000922666667	0.0014	0.0114	0.39	0.4014	F	F	23.8	494.8	197	446.92151421184	11.17345021488	0.22803952518172	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	290	5	60.71	46.44	53.575	24.81810175	0.0019	0.0019	0.38	0.3819	F	F	28.71	502.71	197	446.85138878727	11.090003234051	0.3964864405593	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	62.98	47.78	55.38	26.163248	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	30.98	488.98	197	447.36659162793	11.704563083676	0.48435325537502	16	2	2	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	61.2	44.93	53.065	28.444890666667	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	29.2	504.2	197	448.23646572725	12.750037260425	0.41516916791114	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	61.17	44.87	53.02	28.288325333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	29.17	505.17	197	448.17693630365	12.678174981054	0.41401933514516	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	66.11	49.06	57.585	25.183149333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	34.11	518.11	197	446.99137929962	11.256650655615	0.60586558576908	16	3	2	4	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-07-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	290	5	64.65	48.2	56.425	24.830385333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	32.65	506.65	197	446.85610147599	11.0956091882	0.54973403841381	16	3	2	4	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-07-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	290	5	64.62	48.16	56.39	24.334801083333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	32.62	511.62	197	446.66585011642	10.869524613301	0.54856607774434	16	3	2	4	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-07-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	290	5	58.66	47.17	52.915	24.092313333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	26.66	499.66	197	446.57267345577	10.758968775001	0.32130833171168	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	57.34	43.86	50.6	27.450817333333	0.0068	0.0068	0.38	0.3868	F	F	25.34	513.34	197	447.85809586437	12.294070780827	0.27630439826814	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	290	5	57.33	43.83	50.58	27.45202	0.0068	0.0068	0.38	0.3868	F	F	25.33	512.33	197	447.85855420767	12.29462198728	0.27597557638481	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	58.43	46.06	52.245	24.648385333333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	26.43	513.43	197	446.78626076084	11.012559916872	0.31324909134493	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	58.44	46.02	52.23	24.135776	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	26.44	508.44	197	446.58937834012	10.778781199596	0.3135976827446	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	290	5	61.43	46.18	53.805	23.548399583333	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	29.43	510.43	197	446.36346407869	10.511145211526	0.42400799489811	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-11 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	290	5	61.13	48.77	54.95	25.743470666667	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	29.13	506.13	197	447.20600212774	11.512634597733	0.41248737202874	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	61.12	48.85	54.985	27.189988	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	29.12	514.12	197	447.75865919152	12.174552570314	0.41210458846349	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	57.16	47.52	52.34	28.11872	0.0003	0.0003	0.38	0.3803	F	F	25.16	509.16	197	448.11242207985	12.600347724985	0.27041515728758	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	56.74	48.36	52.55	27.56522	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.74	503.74	197	447.90168912296	12.346508599046	0.25692181717683	16	2	2	4	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-07-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	290	5	49.6	48.44	49.02	27.600698666667	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	17.6	496.6	197	447.9152057337	12.362772621674	0.087614078599082	16	1	2	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-07-10 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	290	5	49.33	47.31	48.32	27.237211971015	0.0008	0.0008	0.43	0.4308	F	F	17.33	502.33	197	447.7766673981	12.196188005596	0.08345497851607	16	1	2	4	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L