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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 16, 2022

[ Friday, July 15, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 17, 2022 ]

DAY 289 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/17/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.439
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 505

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 196
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-17 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022289461.2399244.8599253.0499224.505012857143000.380.38FF29.23992505.23992196446.15568605453 10.9330508230540.4390618865574916 2241124DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:01FORECAST2022289444.5644.5644.5626.9313386666670.00080.00080.380.3808FF12.56488.56197447.659988530712.0560827586360.035990416130194161231123DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:01FORECAST2022289457.2245.351.2626.5888346666670.00320.00320.380.3832FF25.22501.22197447.5292288366711.8992806740390.29132026070115162241124DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:01FORECAST2022289455.7246.851.2626.192720.01460.01460.380.3946FF23.72499.72197447.3778599685111.7180430203540.24278214402777161241123.5DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:07FORECAST2022289456.446.9251.6625.674587750.020.020.380.4FF24.4500.4197447.1796340061711.4811527533040.26423152831427162241124DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022289457.746.9552.32526.4062306666670.02040.02040.380.4004FF25.7484.7196446.8867069898811.8005934666420.30775526367425162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2022289457.2446.8752.05528.5149626666670.02080.02080.380.4008FF25.24496.24196447.6933989389812.7659605568580.29199681737245162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2022289457.4247.0452.2328.493260.0290.0290.380.409FF25.42496.42196447.6851186059212.7560084825690.29811844984013162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022289457.0346.9451.98526.7452386666670.03080.03080.380.4108FF25.03496.03196447.0166855955111.9555679442340.28492972266973162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022289456.7147.1751.9426.3214626666670.02680.03680.380.4168FF24.71495.71196446.8541887083911.7618558455320.27432020552107162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:08FORECAST2022289456.6846.9751.82526.2068461666670.02440.03440.380.4144FF24.68495.68196446.8102089576211.7094864118480.27333564063579162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022289456.6946.7451.71527.5039773333330.01780.01780.380.3978FF24.69479.69196447.3071873308512.3027267413850.27366363463523162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022289454.2546.6950.4729.6942720.02010.02010.380.4001FF22.25490.25196448.1426614505913.3072700839180.19981091571935161231123DRYL
2022-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022289457.1546.9852.06529.5386360.01960.01960.380.3996FF25.15493.15196448.0834483592513.2357738787090.2889580865964162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022289457.2146.8252.01527.6705666666670.0180.0180.380.398FF25.21493.21196447.3708952282412.3790061811390.29098225664586162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022289457.1647.0552.10527.2522573333330.02680.02680.380.4068FF25.16493.16196447.2108721977612.1875057713980.28929498829352162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:07FORECAST2022289454.2546.9850.61526.7791826666670.0270.0270.380.407FF22.25489.25196447.0296938561211.9710898291970.19981091571935161231123DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2022289458.0146.952.45527.3898360.02280.02280.380.4028FF26.01482.01196447.263521285712.2504744967980.31858108876678162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2022289459.6846.8553.26529.4741866666670.02010.02010.380.4001FF27.68495.68196448.0589211864813.2061722807160.37939003465243162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022289461.6748.1254.89529.3359346666670.0190.0190.380.399FF29.67497.67196448.0062937414713.1426833634550.45582305278965162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022289460.6148.4854.54527.8481813333330.01340.01340.380.3934FF28.61496.61196447.4387898010612.4603565539470.41471659324001162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022289458.9448.753.8227.4218906666670.00780.00780.390.3978FF26.94494.94196447.275785435812.2651476860680.35196778896503162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2022289461.3347.6554.4927.4054204166670.00170.00170.380.3817FF29.33498.33196447.2694840250812.2576082492530.44256449383216162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022289465.1948.3256.75529.0137866666670.00480.00480.380.3848FF33.19482.19196447.8835921351412.9947989937090.59326182842809163231124DRYL
2022-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2022289461.3847.554.4431.1249240.00290.00290.380.3829FF29.38499.38196448.685870496313.9653136190710.44451061578489162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2022289461.3848.9155.14530.968577333333000.380.38FF29.38500.38196448.6266027341713.8933276405640.44451061578489162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:04FORECAST2022289465.4549.4257.43528.388912000.380.38FF33.45508.45196447.6452997882812.7081630229030.60317256949403163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:04FORECAST2022289462.1949.8456.01527.851265333333000.380.38FF30.19498.19196447.4399684132712.4617692810160.47619131839624162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:07FORECAST2022289462.1949.8556.0227.346278416667000.380.38FF30.19503.19196447.2468545068712.2305370043230.47619131839624162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022289468.3351.9660.14526.87184000.380.38FF36.33497.33196447.0651969483612.0134644419650.70726365975532164231119DRYL
2022-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2022289468.4450.9259.6829.876541333333000.380.38FF36.44512.44196448.2119776763513.3910236771420.71098004732651642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2022289468.4450.9259.6829.876377333333000.380.38FF36.44511.44196448.2119153222913.3909483074650.71098004732651642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2022289468.0550.3859.21527.189401333333000.380.38FF36.05511.05196447.1868121189912.1587417056770.69770513536828163241119DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022289468.0550.3959.2226.67794000.380.38FF36.05506.05196446.9908916064411.9247961868230.69770513536828163241119DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:08FORECAST2022289468.0449.8758.95526.241443583333000.380.38FF36.04505.04196446.8234857580411.7252932932280.69736118587704163241119DRYL
2022-07-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022289467.5151.6259.56528.601881333333000.380.38FF35.51500.51196447.7265569026712.8058218503120.67888753163102163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022289467.5151.659.55529.631893333333000.380.38FF35.51508.51196448.1189317464713.2786123861590.67888753163102163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2022289465.750.2357.96529.7984626666670.00120.00120.380.3812FF33.7507.7196448.1822886318313.3551431956570.6126397874197163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2022289463.6449.7156.67528.76810533333300.030.380.41FF31.64502.64196447.7899480927912.8820683939410.5331484382181163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 08:00:04FORECAST2022289464.9750.0757.5228.33651200.050.380.43FF32.97502.97196447.6253001577912.6841396894250.58482863985331163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 04:00:07FORECAST2022289464.9750.257.58527.6858066376810.00130.05130.380.4313FF32.97508.97196447.3767220258112.3859854202060.58482863985331163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 00:00:04FORECAST2022289460.5447.2453.8929.9788280.00110.07110.380.4511FF28.54488.54196448.2508627904513.4380355164470.41202955126109162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-09 20:00:04FORECAST2022289460.547.2153.85532.0588226666670.00270.07270.380.4527FF28.5492.5196449.0394022502714.3956745670870.41049593953382162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-09 16:00:04FORECAST2022289459.9747.1953.5832.6595546666670.00680.07680.380.4568FF27.97490.97196449.2663693707914.672839550360.39031326909341162231123.5DRYL
2022-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022289454.5848.5751.57531.7918306666670.02010.02010.380.4001FF22.58488.58196448.9384167566614.2725741252890.20903847650338161231123DRYL
2022-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2022289451.0547.1949.1232.1205960.0060.0060.380.386FF19.05478.05196449.062757280914.4241634052660.12345029540749161231123DRYL
2022-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2022289451.0547.6549.3531.7355231666670.00090.00090.380.3809FF19.05483.05196448.9171105910414.2466193630750.12345029540749161231123DRYL