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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 11, 2022

[ Sunday, July 10, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 12, 2022 ]

DAY 284 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/12/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.896
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 519

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 43 in
SWE DAY: 191
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-12 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022284-175.2952.0399463.6649743.216777083333000.380.38FF43.29519.29191450.4234650232 19.465850481010.8964448967398816 51411110DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:01FORECAST2022284-061.7961.7961.7943.837148000.380.38FF29.79505.79192451.2141337255919.779940759820.49363141292735162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2022284-074.0760.6967.3844.4021853333330.0040.0040.380.384FF42.07518.07192451.4245055236420.0442345582690.874098568206161652411111DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2022284-072.9861.5567.26543.788224000.380.38FF40.98516.98192451.1959043862819.7570673291490.851471519740311652411111DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST2022284-069.5855.6862.6343.582748916667000.380.38FF37.58513.58192451.1193185505619.6610199918470.764537782280511642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-173.1550.6461.89545.961828000.380.38FF41.15508.15191451.4481582889620.7493826021940.855168485498631651411110DRYL
2022-07-10 20:00:01FORECAST2022284-172.9853.6663.3246.996377333333000.380.38FF40.98514.98191451.8324927036321.234490318560.851471519740311651411110DRYL
2022-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2022284-172.7551.9762.3647.044374666667000.380.38FF40.75514.75191451.8502991793121.2570147678370.84637041143865164141119DRYL
2022-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2022284-172.7553.363.02545.518737333333000.380.38FF40.75514.75191451.2832412351820.5418433207190.84637041143865164141119DRYL
2022-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2022284-172.5753.0962.8345.258688000.380.38FF40.57515.57191451.1863651646120.4201029308390.8422984719457164141119DRYL
2022-07-10 04:00:06FORECAST2022284-172.465362.7344.761541304348000.380.38FF40.46515.46191451.0009851198120.1874992237420.83977556909288164141119DRYL
2022-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-172.5853.8263.246.697753333333000.380.38FF40.58502.58191451.7216577457321.0943865487350.84252652905295164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2022284-172.5453.6363.08547.885369333333000.380.38FF40.54509.54191452.1619468308321.6519418224740.84161300292507164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2022284-169.5953.4361.5147.912046666667000.380.38FF37.59509.59191452.1718217689321.6644774259450.7648287613207164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2022284-169.6853.1261.446.704132000.380.38FF37.68508.68191451.7240260807621.0973785416470.76743863156336164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2022284-172.4252.0762.24546.386464000.380.38FF40.42509.42191451.6060324936420.9484069684490.83885166158399164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022284-172.4751.1161.7946.1012125000.380.38FF40.47506.47191451.4999984282620.8146973712910.84000600529845164141119DRYL
2022-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-172.3451.7562.04548.872706666667000.380.38FF40.34495.34191452.5269761792822.1162181655640.83699346661186164131118DRYL
2022-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2022284-177.7357.7567.7449.051104000.40.4FF45.73519.73191452.5928340229622.2001781713150.932263536280321651411110DRYL
2022-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022284-177.3857.8667.6249.05449333333300.010.40.41FF45.38520.38191452.5940849534122.2017735230530.927809305343231651411110DRYL
2022-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022284-178.1557.6467.89547.53563466666700.010.40.41FF46.15521.15191452.0324264015721.4876482789120.937325805424621651411110DRYL
2022-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2022284-174.957.9966.44547.222886666667000.40.4FF42.9517.9191451.9165060938421.3408019500650.889637282128851651411110DRYL
2022-07-08 04:00:07FORECAST2022284-178.0957.2267.65546.918965855072000.40.4FF46.09521.09191451.8037693336221.1981656265570.936621164579381651411110DRYL
2022-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-178.1357.767.91546.126874666667000.40.4FF46.13513.13191451.5095407480120.8267239968880.937091604443251651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2022284-177.9256.5567.23547.260972000.450.45FF45.92525.92191451.9306273790721.3586807265050.934591291221551651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2022284-178.8758.668.73546.909902666667000.440.44FF46.87523.87191451.8004060868521.1939130742940.945314410250521651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2022284-178.6458.968.7745.39744000.440.44FF46.64524.64191451.2380623523120.4850528613550.942854756922231651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022284-176.1958.5567.3745.154446666667000.450.45FF44.19520.19191451.1475142142120.3713163693850.910984571980861651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2022284-178.6459.5269.0844.766453090909000.460.46FF46.64529.64191451.0028178113620.189796487420.942854756922231651411110DRYL
2022-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-179.8458.1568.99544.704030666667000.30.3FF47.84523.84191450.9795249821420.160602514840.954782544638581651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2022284-179.8458.1568.99546.892849333333000.380.38FF47.84531.84191451.794077577721.1859116095430.954782544638581651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2022284-179.8459.5869.7146.677353333333000.390.39FF47.84532.84191451.7140831725121.0848178658860.954782544638581651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 12:00:03FORECAST2022284-17960.3569.67545.165382666667000.380.38FF47534191451.1515905659720.3764342285870.946667292390061651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022284-179.3460.2569.79544.951636000.440.44FF47.34530.34191451.0718967966720.2764197146330.9500807708161651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 04:00:06FORECAST2022284-179.3460.2569.79544.085812898551000.470.47FF47.34533.34191450.7486384778319.871620140210.9500807708161651411110DRYL
2022-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2022284-180.3161.871.05542.566874666667000.570.57FF48.31525.31191450.1798167716219.1627478379810.958871827492441651411110DRYL
2022-07-05 20:00:05FORECAST2022284-180.4361.6971.0644.613778666667000.590.59FF48.43538.43191450.9458410599920.1183979437040.959866521306161651411110DRYL
2022-07-05 16:00:04FORECAST2022284-180.3961.7171.0544.472684000.730.73FF48.39541.39191450.8931661236220.0524292947750.959537144403081651411110DRYL
2022-07-05 12:00:05FORECAST2022284-172.1753.362.73544.414026666667000.640.64FF40.17525.17191450.8712619986220.025008253640.83299886468172164141119DRYL
2022-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2022284-172.8455.564.1743.827289333333000.670.67FF40.84518.84191450.6519798255519.7508547084540.84838011090805164141119DRYL
2022-07-05 04:00:07FORECAST2022284-172.7555.564.12543.680739710145000.690.69FF40.75522.75191450.5971586026119.6824171990520.84637041143865164141119DRYL
2022-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2022284-164.2353.7358.9844.633878666667000.610.61FF32.23506.23191450.953343466120.1277968165940.5850582170941163141124DRYL
2022-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2022284-164.2753.7759.0245.908141333333000.550.55FF32.27526.27191451.4281861487820.7242289715680.58653271522347163141124DRYL
2022-07-04 16:00:04FORECAST2022284-162.6352.3757.546.785432000.550.55FF30.63522.63191451.7542085952521.1355158069470.52531446777818163141124DRYL
2022-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2022284-170.9261.2766.09544.884890666667000.540.54FF38.92540.92191451.0470024561720.2451953907730.8017183652367164141119DRYL
2022-07-04 08:00:04FORECAST2022284-163.861.2762.53545.524818666667000.530.53FF31.8525.8191451.2855059461620.5446908250940.56913579821367163141124DRYL
2022-07-04 04:00:08FORECAST2022284-162.0860.6561.36545.838682166667000.580.58FF30.08527.08191451.4023423913520.6916885021660.5045752060742163141124DRYL