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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 6, 2022

[ Tuesday, July 5, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 7, 2022 ]

DAY 279 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/07/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.274
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 464

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 186
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-07 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022279-652.1900645.9600849.0750760.2790490909090.189999999999940.219999999999940.520.73999999999994FF20.19006464.19006186453.96944773267 27.3648466256510.2741439968052316 2132126DRYL
2022-07-07 00:00:01FORECAST2022279-545.4645.4645.4660.9264186666670.00440.03440.520.5544FF13.46457.46187454.7509223045127.7063450813770.10689747780744161131122.5DRYL
2022-07-06 12:00:01FORECAST2022279-555.3651.8453.661.4710826666670.09790.12790.520.6479FF23.36467.36187454.9488244785127.9661967986210.38296127099019162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 08:00:01FORECAST2022279-554.5950.0852.33561.0892360.14030.17030.520.6903FF22.59466.59187454.8101102286927.7840021589470.35523782010008162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 04:00:06FORECAST2022279-554.2646.6650.4660.4515368985510.16640.19640.520.7164FF22.26466.26187454.5781517542827.4799479140490.34357722118792162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2022279-655.2648.2551.75559.2189426666670.27080.28080.520.8008FF23.26458.26186453.5813679558226.8606090236440.37932326644854162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2022279-656.0350.1853.10561.2876586666670.21350.35350.520.8735FF24.03470.03186454.3377069379427.8452943022090.40758785481259162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2022279-656.475153.73561.2735546666670.30240.44240.520.9624FF24.47470.47186454.3325638472727.8385711877420.42396823105289162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2022279-655.9651.3653.6659.5541786666670.22380.36380.520.8838FF23.96469.96186453.7042028858327.019981160480.40499593501268162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022279-654.5652.0653.3159.09230.30720.39720.520.9172FF22.56468.56186453.5349371715826.8004225678240.35417195072869162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 04:00:06FORECAST2022279-653.4750.9152.1959.0526237101450.30590.39590.520.9159FF21.47468.47186453.5203876484726.7815687966840.31627690584718162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2022279-655.6151.9353.7759.5184640.24240.34240.520.8624FF23.61457.61186453.6911215342327.0029986841550.39210090000103162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 20:00:02FORECAST2022279-656.0351.6253.82560.4795413333330.1730.3130.520.833FF24.03473.03186454.0427257489727.4602957990340.40758785481259162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2022279-656.0551.5753.8160.5027746666670.15470.27470.520.7947FF24.05471.05186454.0512148998627.4713583422120.4083291521508162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2022279-656.6251.6254.1259.2959533333330.11690.24690.520.7669FF24.62471.62186453.6095949431626.8972133733020.42958412295392162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2022279-656.9351.7654.34559.1157720.14770.30770.520.8277FF24.93467.93186453.5435437983826.8115767272570.44123430207872162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 04:00:07FORECAST2022279-657.0151.8254.41558.7435141666670.17650.35650.520.8765FF25.01472.01186453.4069851811926.6347196572570.44424949236178162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022279-656.7552.0554.460.3386853333330.19060.39060.360.7506FF24.75467.75186453.9912481138727.393235064030.43446282381418162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022279-658.8752.3455.60561.2440573333330.21980.38980.430.8198FF26.87478.87186454.3218069087427.8245107901020.51489747424308163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2022279-659.4452.0355.73561.2971386666670.1740.4140.430.844FF27.44476.44186454.3411637614927.8498133170630.53655686681291163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2022279-655.3951.6853.53560.5928680.17140.38140.430.8114FF23.39470.39186454.0841290677527.5142596934970.3840547044258162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2022279-655.3751.3553.3660.2718653333330.17510.38510.50.8851FF23.37472.37186453.9668214447327.3614271279180.3833256457162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 04:00:07FORECAST2022279-657.7649.9353.84559.6464658333330.1650.3350.510.845FF25.76473.76186453.7379997752827.0638681008810.47265040366177162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 00:00:04FORECAST2022279-664.6950.2657.47561.2658346666670.05970.24970.580.8297FF32.69467.69186454.3297486345227.8348912639910.72338913221317164132128DRYL
2022-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2022279-664.6951.8358.2662.9231840.0630.1830.640.823FF32.69491.69186454.9328612854428.625824138310.72338913221317164132128DRYL
2022-07-02 16:00:04FORECAST2022279-664.6951.7158.263.0552040.06680.19680.811.0068FF32.69487.69186454.9807945332428.6889068153760.72338913221317164132128DRYL
2022-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2022279-666.2652.6959.47560.8860853333330.01450.10450.830.9345FF34.26496.26186454.1911992290327.6539241139080.77120989203933164132128DRYL
2022-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2022279-665.252.2658.7360.6292613333330.01090.13090.780.9109FF33.2491.2186454.097422658227.5315913091370.73944327049598164132128DRYL
2022-07-02 04:00:08FORECAST2022279-662.1652.2857.2260.2902530833330.00770.09770.630.7277FF30.16487.16186453.973543670327.370179841020.63736120600623163132127DRYL
2022-07-02 00:00:04FORECAST2022279-665.250.4357.81562.1036960.00180.19180.921.1118FF33.2472.2186454.6349653272428.2345116776530.73944327049598164132128DRYL
2022-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2022279-665.2650.2257.7464.2187693333330.00720.16720.861.0272FF33.26487.26186455.4025623837829.2453921075330.74130000073446164132128DRYL
2022-07-01 16:00:04FORECAST2022279-665.1950.2457.71564.1038053333330.00720.20720.831.0372FF33.19489.19186455.3609458363229.1903694282940.73913315068691164132128DRYL
2022-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022279-662.1951.0456.61562.4843053333330.06710.17710.810.9871FF30.19488.19186454.7733995446928.4161999546280.63843475591791163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 08:00:04FORECAST2022279-663.3550.1656.75562.0760546666670.00760.15760.820.9776FF31.35482.35186454.6249064812228.2213205475570.67903936493324163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 04:00:06FORECAST2022279-663.3150.2156.7661.0648544166670.00760.13760.80.9376FF31.31490.31186454.2564387702127.7391033013370.67767088933727163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 00:00:04FORECAST2022279-662.3953.3957.8961.5931666666670.04820.23820.881.1182FF30.39471.39186454.4490666750527.9909571052280.64556357790762163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2022279-664.4753.8759.1763.6217573333330.00330.18331.011.1933FF32.47488.47186455.1863138566828.9597532016440.71631736691548164132128DRYL
2022-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2022279-664.4853.8959.18563.4355080.00330.18330.760.9433FF32.48487.48186455.118783849228.8706912538160.71664067856919164132128DRYL
2022-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2022279-668.0949.7258.90562.19413733333300.240.740.98FF36.09486.09186454.6678725324828.2776761053390.820585035515881641321116DRYL
2022-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2022279-668.5350.5159.5261.38856933333300.190.821.01FF36.53488.53186454.3744991180127.8934004424040.831377862040161641321116DRYL
2022-06-30 04:00:08FORECAST2022279-668.3950.5159.4561.36475108333300.190.770.96FF36.39488.39186454.3658157986427.8820451872590.827989861843811641321116DRYL
2022-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2022279-668.0752.5960.3362.4637733333330.00180.08180.730.8118FF36.07478.07186454.7659351146428.4063962907220.82008437255963164131118DRYL
2022-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022279-669.1255.7462.4363.57693333333300.060.690.75FF37.12491.12186455.1700645560828.9383168496110.84518201379493164131118DRYL
2022-06-29 16:00:04FORECAST2022279-669.1555.7562.4564.19767333333300.060.710.77FF37.15495.15186455.3949266193129.2352947367630.84586344055774164131118DRYL
2022-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2022279-656.849.9653.3863.8164280.00020.38020.550.9302FF24.8483.8186455.2568631210229.0528668268680.43634194995741162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2022279-652.0549.9751.0164.28339066666700.380.631.01FF20.05475.05186455.4259497353629.2763242465760.26970706706594162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 04:00:07FORECAST2022279-651.2549.2550.2565.21644758333300.380.621FF19.25471.25186455.7632083830229.7232573899230.24507228230649161132125DRYL