MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 2, 2022

[ Friday, July 1, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 3, 2022 ]

DAY 275 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.556
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 445

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 69 in
SWE DAY: 182
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-03 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022275-1059.5200243.5700451.5450368.6317525001.441.44FF27.52002444.52002182454.83271548791 31.2159663582690.5555944611256216 3131123.5DRYL
2022-07-03 00:00:01FORECAST2022275-944.2244.2244.2270.9331973333330.00150.00151.441.4415FF12.22429.22183456.2060612168332.3601545649560.10950786202197161131122.5DRYL
2022-07-02 12:00:01FORECAST2022275-962.6151.6857.14571.2332280.03860.03861.441.4786FF30.61447.61183456.3140019003732.5047193369610.66136862674773163131123.5DRYL
2022-07-02 08:00:01FORECAST2022275-960.4651.7356.09570.7686706666670.03190.03191.441.4719FF28.46445.46183456.1468352666532.2809051606280.58857757103011163131123.5DRYL
2022-07-02 04:00:06FORECAST2022275-960.2947.253.74570.3553704166670.03750.03751.441.4775FF28.29445.29183455.9979471194432.0819044788280.58265152707751163131123.5DRYL
2022-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2022275-1060.414552.70572.017660.0930.0931.441.533FF28.41429.41182456.0578477251832.8442190178040.58683664901265163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 20:00:01FORECAST2022275-1060.2249.7955.00574.0783946666670.07570.07571.441.5157FF28.22444.22182456.7983476104133.8388882773650.58020584310429163131123.5DRYL
2022-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2022275-1060.5751.2955.9374.0297960.10180.10181.441.5418FF28.57444.57182456.7809288608333.8153989802570.59240142120981163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 12:00:01FORECAST2022275-1060.3351.6555.9972.3024386666670.16740.16741.441.6074FF28.33444.33182456.1604104192432.9815100964990.58404763307619163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2022275-1060.0651.7655.9171.8268386666670.16820.17821.441.6182FF28.06445.06182455.9890821297732.7522542358960.57460421142923163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 04:00:05FORECAST2022275-1060.6552.1156.3871.2199530833330.10810.10811.441.5481FF28.65446.65182455.7701592664432.459929359740.5951769073147163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022275-1061.6852.356.9971.9175680.12360.12361.441.5636FF29.68429.68182456.0217820884832.7959775228290.63043805356949163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2022275-1061.0252.1356.57573.9772093333330.13420.14421.441.5842FF29.02443.02182456.7620783087733.7899838825760.60794927948481163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2022275-1060.9152.2456.57573.9663853333330.16920.17921.441.6192FF28.91442.91182456.7581979561933.7847528741870.60416354333843163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2022275-1060.652.1156.35572.1614013333330.14930.15931.441.5993FF28.6442.6182456.1096252659732.9135097208140.59344278003872163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 08:00:03FORECAST2022275-1060.1152.356.20571.7922920.18850.19851.441.6385FF28.11443.11182455.976629108532.7356073021330.5763563952475163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 04:00:07FORECAST2022275-1060.1552.2456.19571.7474270833330.13180.14181.441.5818FF28.15444.15182455.9604550412232.7139895009530.57775705795978163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2022275-1059.6751.7855.72573.1713333333330.10410.12411.441.5641FF27.67429.67182456.4728836838833.4007295296610.56088921518156163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022275-1060.3351.7856.05574.3101320.09080.11081.451.5608FF28.33435.33182456.8813774142733.9509154639960.58404763307619163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2022275-106251.8656.9374.1827040.12770.15771.451.6077FF30440182456.8357269354533.8893095078770.64118844470868163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2022275-1065.6451.8758.75572.6792613333330.10240.13241.451.5824FF33.64443.64182456.2960086692433.1632568594290.75403778543438164132128DRYL
2022-06-29 08:00:02FORECAST2022275-1064.1851.9358.05572.4535973333330.11350.14351.461.6035FF32.18441.18182456.2148198986333.0544048584350.71111357091594164132128DRYL
2022-06-29 04:00:06FORECAST2022275-1064.4951.7958.1472.7956529166670.08090.11091.481.5909FF32.49442.49182456.3378655241733.219412871430.72051499579724164132128DRYL
2022-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2022275-1065.8152.1658.98574.7357146666670.08350.11351.551.6635FF33.81432.81182457.0337333594534.1567426893930.75880392062002164132128DRYL
2022-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2022275-1064.2952.1958.2475.816020.07530.09531.641.7353FF32.29439.29182457.4197371158334.6797439375680.7144665393345164132128DRYL
2022-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022275-1064.352.3958.34575.7836573333330.07530.10531.621.7253FF32.3437.3182457.4081889987634.6640654565430.7147704347485164132128DRYL
2022-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2022275-1065.6153.1659.38574.4180840.11510.14511.611.7551FF33.61446.61182456.9200391490934.0031138546810.75319149571047164132128DRYL
2022-06-28 08:00:04FORECAST2022275-1062.4953.5558.0274.0510520.20180.23181.61.8318FF30.49443.49182456.7885477076733.8256724993050.65743297413169163132127DRYL
2022-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022275-1062.4953.5558.0273.4086481666670.20180.22181.521.7418FF30.49443.49182456.5581073871933.5153134728250.65743297413169163132127DRYL
2022-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2022275-1065.2253.6959.45573.7368653333330.11010.13011.521.6501FF33.22428.22182456.6758910061733.6738486761020.74204952682005164132128DRYL
2022-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022275-1065.1951.3858.28576.9803506666670.09770.11771.531.6477FF33.19447.19182457.8345797002335.244266492650.74118178698014164132128DRYL
2022-06-27 16:00:04FORECAST2022275-1063.2151.3857.29576.9676133333330.10590.13591.591.7259FF31.21447.21182457.8300481146635.2380861156710.68077658546037163132127DRYL
2022-06-27 12:00:04FORECAST2022275-1068.4554.0161.2373.9451480.10990.12991.581.7099FF36.45459.45182456.7505841630833.7744895450250.82605530784821641321116DRYL
2022-06-27 08:00:04FORECAST2022275-1068.2854.8461.5673.0735973333330.07240.09241.581.6724FF36.28449.28182456.4377701231733.3535498217050.822120438141691641321116DRYL
2022-06-27 04:00:07FORECAST2022275-1068.2654.8461.5572.7703583333330.07240.10241.591.6924FF36.26450.26182456.3287701137733.2072081189880.821653858071431641321116DRYL
2022-06-27 00:00:04FORECAST2022275-1066.755.1860.9474.3183053333330.12070.15071.621.7707FF34.7435.7182456.8843049680933.9548672786260.78291879110541164132128DRYL
2022-06-26 20:00:04FORECAST2022275-1066.6553.8260.23577.6305066666670.04760.06761.541.6076FF34.65448.65182458.0656923268935.5598717819540.78160199713544164131124DRYL
2022-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022275-1066.6653.9260.2977.3485360.04760.06761.551.6176FF34.66453.66182457.9655063549835.4229614550570.78186572268947164131124DRYL
2022-06-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022275-1065.3454.4559.89574.3972466666670.030.061.561.62FF33.34453.34182456.9125773296833.9930377206990.74550535455843164131124DRYL
2022-06-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022275-1065.3554.459.87574.0488013333330.030.061.531.59FF33.35449.35182456.7877410144733.8245846858820.74579224281187164131124DRYL
2022-06-26 04:00:07FORECAST2022275-1065.7354.5160.1273.6042960833330.02870.04871.531.5787FF33.73453.73182456.6283291844733.6098067413320.75656729871786164131124DRYL
2022-06-26 00:00:04FORECAST2022275-1066.8155.7661.28573.9299760.05460.10461.471.5746FF34.81445.81182456.7451446001733.7671575784070.78579956463094164132128DRYL
2022-06-25 20:00:04FORECAST2022275-1066.9857.3962.18576.1629106666670.0490.0491.481.529FF34.98462.98182457.5434600833334.8478416764440.79020772249595164131124DRYL
2022-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022275-1067.0257.462.2176.8453693333330.01610.01611.51.5161FF35.02462.02182457.7865496754435.1787764856420.79123714709577164131124DRYL
2022-06-25 12:00:04FORECAST2022275-1062.1854.0758.12576.41224533333300.021.481.5FF30.18450.18182457.6323211498334.9687131961640.64718740084651163131123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 08:00:04FORECAST2022275-1054.7553.1653.95576.38682533333300.011.481.49FF22.75438.75182457.6232642222834.9563883526170.38711103593514162131123DRYL
2022-06-25 04:00:08FORECAST2022275-1054.7453.6854.2176.45520041666700.011.471.48FF22.74447.74182457.6476243479634.9895408397350.38676861868768162131123DRYL