Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 28, 2022

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DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/29/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.47°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.44°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.483 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 25 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 360 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 83 in SWE DAY: 178 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.01 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 38.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -14 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-29 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	271	-14	57.47	41.41994	49.44497	83.462759583333	0	0	2.67	2.67	F	F	25.47	360.47	178	458.01169501124	38.226919987078	0.48275016468296	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-13	42.94	42.94	42.94	85.940194666667	0.0059	0.0059	2.67	2.6759	F	F	10.94	345.94	179	459.41644286123	39.482338532561	0.087090732221103	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-06-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-13	51.63	43.77	47.7	85.991181333333	0.0872	0.0872	2.67	2.7572	F	F	19.63	354.63	179	459.43437616998	39.507304752	0.28373038851429	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-13	52.82	44.07	48.445	85.504593333333	0.0932	0.0932	2.67	2.7632	F	F	20.82	355.82	179	459.26313606522	39.269107682248	0.32129140550055	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	271	-13	52.42	45.92	49.17	84.7885535	0.0381	0.0381	2.67	2.7081	F	F	20.42	355.42	179	459.01076206025	38.918858556022	0.30843431514186	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	56.43	45.6	51.015	85.489761333333	0.0262	0.0262	2.67	2.6962	F	F	24.43	338.43	178	458.73007086608	39.216724274764	0.44536740056259	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.04	45.86	51.95	88.572909333333	0.0282	0.0482	2.67	2.7182	F	F	26.04	357.04	178	459.81568148442	40.727212666165	0.50332463655525	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.12	45.46	51.79	88.605545333333	0.0274	0.0474	2.67	2.7174	F	F	26.12	357.12	178	459.82712757034	40.743233397431	0.50621282935153	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.8	45.64	52.22	86.003193333333	0.0247	0.0447	2.67	2.7147	F	F	26.8	357.8	178	458.91144648228	39.467849854695	0.53073406278919	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.98	45.62	52.3	85.212822666667	0.049	0.069	2.67	2.739	F	F	26.98	356.98	178	458.63214092905	39.081339294221	0.53720932581897	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	59.62	45.92	52.77	84.935605	0.0327	0.0727	2.67	2.7427	F	F	27.62	359.62	178	458.53404331846	38.94586638235	0.56014106530548	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	59.58	45.98	52.78	86.64706	0.0392	0.0992	2.67	2.7692	F	F	27.58	340.58	178	459.13856555948	39.783006838346	0.55871291554917	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.72	45.98	52.35	89.816472	0.0368	0.0668	2.67	2.7368	F	F	26.72	352.72	178	460.25115328956	41.3381348224	0.52785345389314	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.6	46.4	52.5	89.772301333333	0.0136	0.0436	2.67	2.7136	F	F	26.6	353.6	178	460.23570911825	41.316418763324	0.52352985444077	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.29	46.43	52.36	87.073134666667	0.0232	0.0532	2.67	2.7232	F	F	26.29	352.29	178	459.28865606772	39.991703000657	0.51234896938896	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.42	46.33	52.375	86.384826666667	0.0265	0.0565	2.67	2.7265	F	F	26.42	355.42	178	459.04610957302	39.654618607473	0.51703941693751	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.35	46.14	52.245	86.313093416667	0.0288	0.0488	2.67	2.7188	F	F	26.35	355.35	178	459.02080774834	39.619505859377	0.51451404293228	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.39	46.3	52.345	87.270774666667	0.0141	0.0241	2.67	2.6941	F	F	26.39	342.39	178	459.35822227582	40.088547907514	0.51595719157935	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.73	47.25	52.99	89.129078666667	0.0217	0.0317	2.67	2.7017	F	F	26.73	355.73	178	460.01061135517	41.000321966977	0.52821361280264	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	59.2	47.27	53.235	89.141870666667	0.0198	0.0498	2.67	2.7198	F	F	27.2	356.2	178	460.01509154028	41.006605794798	0.54510999577652	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	59.39	47.44	53.415	86.985598666667	0.0306	0.0406	2.67	2.7106	F	F	27.39	357.39	178	459.25783359548	39.948817597659	0.55191908686564	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.92	47.85	53.385	86.567398666667	0.0338	0.0438	2.67	2.7138	F	F	26.92	352.92	178	459.1104857597	39.744000452807	0.53505191459614	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.79	47.5	53.145	86.34942975	0.0245	0.0345	2.67	2.7045	F	F	26.79	356.79	178	459.03362491284	39.637291747299	0.53037407152787	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	59.21	48.06	53.635	87.245777333333	0.006	0.016	2.67	2.686	F	F	27.21	348.21	178	459.34942553206	40.076297698165	0.54546871745938	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	57.41	48.34	52.875	89.435252	0.0078	0.0278	2.67	2.6978	F	F	25.41	358.41	178	460.11780352568	41.150751708006	0.48058615072956	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.08	48.98	53.53	89.268628	0.0253	0.0753	2.67	2.7453	F	F	26.08	361.08	178	460.05947831962	41.068878427988	0.50476876419905	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.64	47.63	53.135	87.527276	0.0379	0.0679	2.67	2.7379	F	F	26.64	358.64	178	459.44845470161	40.214271702442	0.52497138734309	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.06	48.41	53.235	87.470532	0.0196	0.0296	2.67	2.6996	F	F	26.06	354.06	178	459.42849827549	40.186455160119	0.50404670700591	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	57.97	48.42	53.195	86.77461142029	0.0185	0.0285	2.67	2.6985	F	F	25.97	360.97	178	459.18351429166	39.845471023262	0.50079731972731	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.28	50.69	54.485	89.495497333333	0.0368	0.0568	2.67	2.7268	F	F	26.28	347.28	178	460.13888577787	41.180358425096	0.51198808668658	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	57.07	49.81	53.44	90.818358666667	0.0376	0.0576	2.67	2.7276	F	F	25.07	361.07	178	460.60099566497	41.831026426525	0.46833607678095	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	57.57	49.79	53.68	90.729252	0.0376	0.0576	2.67	2.7276	F	F	25.57	357.57	178	460.56991713629	41.787164075478	0.48635795271404	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	61.18	50.99	56.085	89.140529333333	0.037	0.047	2.67	2.717	F	F	29.18	364.18	178	460.01462176743	41.005946885422	0.61505178162795	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	61.66	51.66	56.66	88.658806666667	0.0064	0.0064	2.67	2.6764	F	F	29.66	361.66	178	459.84580532793	40.769380351047	0.63154636252986	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	61.76	51.67	56.715	88.13140575	0.0064	0.0064	2.67	2.6764	F	F	29.76	364.76	178	459.66074423344	40.510547557384	0.63495357836498	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	63.11	52.32	57.715	89.222330666667	0.0099	0.0099	2.67	2.6799	F	F	31.11	360.11	178	460.04326797912	41.046132576607	0.67981549342204	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-22 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	66.55	54.03	60.29	90.133825333333	0.0069	0.0069	2.68	2.6869	F	F	34.55	371.55	178	460.3620642158	41.49419388612	0.78187911331062	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	64.94	53.48	59.21	90.059369333333	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	32.94	368.94	178	460.33605082373	41.457574418582	0.73657298665256	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	63.94	53.07	58.505	89.06542	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	31.94	364.94	178	459.98831380178	40.969052363848	0.70619545895005	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	62.49	52.28	57.385	88.870150666667	0	0	2.7	2.7	F	F	30.49	355.49	178	459.91989483135	40.873150348259	0.65948930669574	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	62.35	52.17	57.26	88.747189416667	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	30.35	362.35	178	459.87679393726	40.81277293988	0.65483201231639	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	70.4	57.72	64.06	89.682845333333	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	38.4	355.4	178	460.20442572642	41.272442334138	0.87017496591899	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2022-06-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	72.09	61.27	66.68	90.820004	0.01	0.02	2.69	2.71	F	F	40.09	375.09	178	460.60156945645	41.831836380441	0.89979472938588	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2022-06-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	68.66	56.71	62.685	95.496190666667	0.01	0.02	2.68	2.7	F	F	36.66	346.66	178	462.22268702404	44.140505850507	0.83387824868172	16	4	1	2	1	1	1	7	DRY	L
2022-06-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	58.14	50.33	54.235	96.021045333333	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	26.14	330.14	178	462.4034421242	44.400461878497	0.50693483258068	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	55.14	53.86	54.5	95.900013333333	0	0	2.7	2.7	F	F	23.14	320.14	178	462.36178119554	44.340500981476	0.39970056334575	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	271	-14	55.11	54.23	54.67	95.512576166667	0	0	2.69	2.69	F	F	23.11	328.11	178	462.22833368369	44.148618927355	0.39865218540367	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L