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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 28, 2022

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DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/28/2022 08:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.321
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 356

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 86 in
SWE DAY: 178
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -13

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2022271-1352.8244.0748.44585.5045933333330.09320.09322.672.7632FF20.82355.82179459.2631360652239.2691076822480.32129140550055162122125DRYL
2022-06-28 04:00:05FORECAST2022271-1352.4245.9249.1784.78855350.03810.03812.672.7081FF20.42355.42179459.0107620602538.9188585560220.30843431514186162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022271-1456.4345.651.01585.4897613333330.02620.02622.672.6962FF24.43338.43178458.7300708660839.2167242747640.44536740056259162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-27 20:00:01FORECAST2022271-1458.0445.8651.9588.5729093333330.02820.04822.672.7182FF26.04357.04178459.8156814844240.7272126661650.50332463655525163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 16:00:01FORECAST2022271-1458.1245.4651.7988.6055453333330.02740.04742.672.7174FF26.12357.12178459.8271275703440.7432333974310.50621282935153163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 12:00:02FORECAST2022271-1458.845.6452.2286.0031933333330.02470.04472.672.7147FF26.8357.8178458.9114464822839.4678498546950.53073406278919163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.9845.6252.385.2128226666670.0490.0692.672.739FF26.98356.98178458.6321409290539.0813392942210.53720932581897163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022271-1459.6245.9252.7784.9356050.03270.07272.672.7427FF27.62359.62178458.5340433184638.945866382350.56014106530548163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2022271-1459.5845.9852.7886.647060.03920.09922.672.7692FF27.58340.58178459.1385655594839.7830068383460.55871291554917163122126DRYL
2022-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2022271-1458.7245.9852.3589.8164720.03680.06682.672.7368FF26.72352.72178460.2511532895641.33813482240.52785345389314163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2022271-1458.646.452.589.7723013333330.01360.04362.672.7136FF26.6353.6178460.2357091182541.3164187633240.52352985444077163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.2946.4352.3687.0731346666670.02320.05322.672.7232FF26.29352.29178459.2886560677239.9917030006570.51234896938896163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.4246.3352.37586.3848266666670.02650.05652.672.7265FF26.42355.42178459.0461095730239.6546186074730.51703941693751163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022271-1458.3546.1452.24586.3130934166670.02880.04882.672.7188FF26.35355.35178459.0208077483439.6195058593770.51451404293228163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.3946.352.34587.2707746666670.01410.02412.672.6941FF26.39342.39178459.3582222758240.0885479075140.51595719157935163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.7347.2552.9989.1290786666670.02170.03172.672.7017FF26.73355.73178460.0106113551741.0003219669770.52821361280264163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2022271-1459.247.2753.23589.1418706666670.01980.04982.672.7198FF27.2356.2178460.0150915402841.0066057947980.54510999577652163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2022271-1459.3947.4453.41586.9855986666670.03060.04062.672.7106FF27.39357.39178459.2578335954839.9488175976590.55191908686564163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.9247.8553.38586.5673986666670.03380.04382.672.7138FF26.92352.92178459.110485759739.7440004528070.53505191459614163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2022271-1458.7947.553.14586.349429750.02450.03452.672.7045FF26.79356.79178459.0336249128439.6372917472990.53037407152787163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022271-1459.2148.0653.63587.2457773333330.0060.0162.672.686FF27.21348.21178459.3494255320640.0762976981650.54546871745938163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022271-1457.4148.3452.87589.4352520.00780.02782.672.6978FF25.41358.41178460.1178035256841.1507517080060.48058615072956162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-24 16:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.0848.9853.5389.2686280.02530.07532.672.7453FF26.08361.08178460.0594783196241.0688784279880.50476876419905163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2022271-1458.6447.6353.13587.5272760.03790.06792.672.7379FF26.64358.64178459.4484547016140.2142717024420.52497138734309163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.0648.4153.23587.4705320.01960.02962.672.6996FF26.06354.06178459.4284982754940.1864551601190.50404670700591163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022271-1457.9748.4253.19586.774611420290.01850.02852.672.6985FF25.97360.97178459.1835142916639.8454710232620.50079731972731163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022271-1458.2850.6954.48589.4954973333330.03680.05682.672.7268FF26.28347.28178460.1388857778741.1803584250960.51198808668658163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022271-1457.0749.8153.4490.8183586666670.03760.05762.672.7276FF25.07361.07178460.6009956649741.8310264265250.46833607678095162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2022271-1457.5749.7953.6890.7292520.03760.05762.672.7276FF25.57357.57178460.5699171362941.7871640754780.48635795271404162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022271-1461.1850.9956.08589.1405293333330.0370.0472.672.717FF29.18364.18178460.0146217674341.0059468854220.61505178162795163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022271-1461.6651.6656.6688.6588066666670.00640.00642.672.6764FF29.66361.66178459.8458053279340.7693803510470.63154636252986163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 04:00:07FORECAST2022271-1461.7651.6756.71588.131405750.00640.00642.672.6764FF29.76364.76178459.6607442334440.5105475573840.63495357836498163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2022271-1463.1152.3257.71589.2223306666670.00990.00992.672.6799FF31.11360.11178460.0432679791241.0461325766070.67981549342204163121123DRYL
2022-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2022271-1466.5554.0360.2990.1338253333330.00690.00692.682.6869FF34.55371.55178460.362064215841.494193886120.78187911331062164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022271-1464.9453.4859.2190.059369333333002.692.69FF32.94368.94178460.3360508237341.4575744185820.73657298665256164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022271-1463.9453.0758.50589.06542002.692.69FF31.94364.94178459.9883138017840.9690523638480.70619545895005164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-22 08:00:04FORECAST2022271-1462.4952.2857.38588.870150666667002.72.7FF30.49355.49178459.9198948313540.8731503482590.65948930669574163121123DRYL
2022-06-22 04:00:08FORECAST2022271-1462.3552.1757.2688.747189416667002.692.69FF30.35362.35178459.8767939372640.812772939880.65483201231639163121123DRYL
2022-06-22 00:00:04FORECAST2022271-1470.457.7264.0689.682845333333002.692.69FF38.4355.4178460.2044257264241.2724423341380.87017496591899165121118DRYL
2022-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022271-1472.0961.2766.6890.8200040.010.022.692.71FF40.09375.09178460.6015694564541.8318363804410.89979472938588165121118DRYL
2022-06-21 16:00:03FORECAST2022271-1468.6656.7162.68595.4961906666670.010.022.682.7FF36.66346.66178462.2226870240444.1405058505070.83387824868172164121117DRYL
2022-06-21 12:00:04FORECAST2022271-1458.1450.3354.23596.021045333333002.692.69FF26.14330.14178462.403442124244.4004618784970.50693483258068163121123DRYL
2022-06-21 08:00:04FORECAST2022271-1455.1453.8654.595.900013333333002.72.7FF23.14320.14178462.3617811955444.3405009814760.39970056334575162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-21 04:00:08FORECAST2022271-1455.1154.2354.6795.512576166667002.692.69FF23.11328.11178462.2283336836944.1486189273550.39865218540367162121122.5DRYL