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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 26, 2022

[ Saturday, June 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, June 27, 2022 ]

DAY 269 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/27/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 80.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.984
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 48
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 321

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 91 in
SWE DAY: 176
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -16

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-27 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022269-1680.0999653.9667.0299891.489318333333005.585.58TF48.09996321.09996176459.78912239702 42.0657933851850.9836879752422116 5121118WETL
2022-06-27 00:00:01FORECAST2022269-1561.361.361.393.839826666667005.585.58TF29.3302.3177461.1319353657343.2725408851850.62329872629964163121123WETL
2022-06-26 12:00:02FORECAST2022269-1575.1664.1669.6694.318818666667005.585.58TF43.16316.16177461.2982316382943.5091042611460.95118632414672165121118WETL
2022-06-26 08:00:02FORECAST2022269-1576.8556.3866.61593.633244005.585.58TF44.85317.85177461.0601515989743.1705576733430.96566751786919165121118WETL
2022-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2022269-1577.2854.0665.6793.594857416667005.585.58TF45.28318.28177461.0468088003243.1516103320750.96872715070561165121118WETL
2022-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.6254.2965.45594.5070013333330.00010.00015.585.5801TF44.62305.62176460.8436837849243.552954637920.96393282050009165121118WETL
2022-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.6257.2366.92596.557677333333005.585.58TF44.62318.62176461.555715359344.566747835020.96393282050009165121118WETL
2022-06-25 16:00:01FORECAST2022269-1676.558.2167.35596.537068005.585.58TF44.5318.5176461.5485778618744.5565464463550.96299973427672165121118WETL
2022-06-25 12:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.5558.4667.50594.390144005.585.58TF44.55318.55176460.8029970164443.4952612440140.9633908837688165121118WETL
2022-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2022269-1675.9157.5266.71594.014748005.585.58TF43.91314.91176460.6722118811743.3099819106110.95812200425064165121118WETL
2022-06-25 04:00:06FORECAST2022269-1676.4158.7767.5993.811047083333005.585.58TF44.41320.41176460.6011918072243.2094800912660.96228708566682165121118WETL
2022-06-25 00:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.458.7567.57594.863030666667005.585.58TF44.4310.4176460.9675697755143.7287807079530.96220721756334165121118WETL
2022-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022269-1676.4158.8167.6196.95744005.585.58TF44.41322.41176461.6940886966944.7646769031640.96228708566682165121118WETL
2022-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.1858.9167.54596.857345333333005.585.58TF44.18322.18176461.6594552416344.7151092827370.96041502882852165121118WETL
2022-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.0158.9267.46594.99682005.585.58TF44.01322.01176461.0140949201843.7948729925960.95898346723337165121118WETL
2022-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022269-1675.6758.3567.0194.866112005.585.58TF43.67317.67176460.9686414848543.730302771590.95599484372578165121118WETL
2022-06-24 04:00:05FORECAST2022269-1675.6358.2566.9494.335722086957005.585.58TF43.63320.63176460.7840445603843.4683955697510.95563201582102165121118WETL
2022-06-24 00:00:02FORECAST2022269-1675.2858.0266.6597.295009333333005.585.58TF43.28306.28176461.8108251473344.9318885429440.95235380223662165121118WETL
2022-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2022269-1677.2758.0967.6898.268496005.585.58TF45.27323.27176462.1469111963645.4144818943120.96865863981044165121118WETL
2022-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2022269-1677.0157.4667.23598.340656005.585.58TF45.01319.01176462.171790611245.45027707340.9668334712184165121118WETL
2022-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022269-1677.515767.25597.148649333333005.585.58TF45.51322.51176461.7602239927744.8593820767550.97026911824692165121118WETL
2022-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2022269-1675.7957.0766.4396.900736005.585.58TF43.79320.79176461.674469797144.7365959157490.95706903521299165121118WETL
2022-06-23 04:00:07FORECAST2022269-1677.957.3567.62596.378364416667005.585.58TF45.9324.9176461.4936025555644.477998603060.97273974596177165121118WETL
2022-06-23 00:00:04FORECAST2022269-1678.6157.2367.9297.764762666667005.585.58TF46.61313.61176461.9731063058345.1646910963720.97679911114782165121118WETL
2022-06-22 20:00:03FORECAST2022269-1677.2256.3866.898.930293333333005.595.59TF45.22322.22176462.3749157305245.7428860431950.96831422648143165121118WETL
2022-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022269-1677.9957.9567.9798.71703866666700.015.595.6TF45.99321.99176462.3014863992545.6370337085320.97328495558012165121118WETL
2022-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022269-1678.1357.6367.8897.46724933333300.015.595.6TF46.13322.13176461.8703497243645.0172325362580.97411498567233165121118WETL
2022-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2022269-1675.6358.3266.97597.08944800.015.65.61TF43.63314.63176461.7397509266344.8300575371240.95563201582102165121118WETL
2022-06-22 04:00:07FORECAST2022269-1677.7658.1267.9496.974741416667005.65.6TF45.76321.76176461.7000742154444.7732453090980.97187326351991165121118WETL
2022-06-22 00:00:04FORECAST2022269-1676.0258.1967.10598.399937333333005.65.6TF44.02308.02176462.1922262916445.4796861030510.95906881975086165121118WETL
2022-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022269-1676.3456.4366.38599.246433333333005.65.6TF44.34324.34176462.4836980951545.8998575107540.96172511428394165121118WETL
2022-06-21 16:00:03FORECAST2022269-1672.9552.162.525102.23336533333005.595.59TF40.95301.95176463.5071880604147.3858996916060.92535234648935165121118WETL
2022-06-21 12:00:04FORECAST2022269-1670.4252.5261.47100.95531333333005.65.6TF38.42302.42176463.0702062222646.74939776450.88430886421113165121118WETL
2022-06-21 08:00:04FORECAST2022269-1671.252.7561.975100.80454266667005.615.61TF39.2293.2176463.0185622543246.6743744142240.89838081759591165121118WETL
2022-06-21 04:00:07FORECAST2022269-1671.2152.7661.985100.04274816667005.65.6TF39.21301.21176462.7573196680446.2955139938320.89855278031935165121118WETL
2022-06-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022269-1673.5355.3364.4399.736738666667005.595.59TF41.53302.53176462.6522372770946.1434252828540.93296983651806165121118WETL
2022-06-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022269-1673.5355.3464.435100.60471866667005.65.6TF41.53311.53176462.95008540546.5749630988790.93296983651806165121118WETL
2022-06-20 16:00:04FORECAST2022269-1674.2256.0565.135100.57820533333005.585.58TF42.22309.22176462.9409970499246.5617746585050.94123511911284165121118WETL
2022-06-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022269-1672.1555.8263.98599.971241333333005.65.6TF40.15307.15176462.7327718310346.2599696055620.91378801469684165121118WETL
2022-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022269-1672.1955.8264.00599.859448005.65.6TF40.19302.19176462.6943849619346.2044058749980.91439624680471165121118WETL
2022-06-20 04:00:08FORECAST2022269-1672.0656.4664.2699.372506166667005.595.59TF40.06316.06176462.5270548376545.9624726091050.91240772305396165121118WETL
2022-06-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022269-1669.854.462.1100.26416533333005.245.24TF37.8315.8176462.833302489546.405594762580.87217855895195165121118WETL
2022-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022269-1670.4753.8362.15101.66439733333005.285.28TF38.47312.47176463.3128260183647.102419233960.88525033366512165121118WETL
2022-06-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022269-1670.5153.8562.18102.32821466667005.285.28TF38.51312.51176463.5395617148547.433175777650.88599958702583165121118WETL
2022-06-19 12:00:04FORECAST2022269-1661.453.9557.675102.01574005.285.28TF29.4308.4176463.4328794321147.2774481355980.62696672877515163121123WETL
2022-06-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022269-1655.3554.1854.765102.935616005.35.3TF23.35294.35176463.7466930944647.7360515216420.39687005857595162121122.5WETL
2022-06-19 04:00:08FORECAST2022269-1655.0654.5354.795102.48830875005.295.29TF23.06305.06176463.5941867982147.512984151280.38609472781527162121122.5WETL