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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 23, 2022

[ Wednesday, June 22, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, June 24, 2022 ]

DAY 266 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/24/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.403
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 264

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 105 in
SWE DAY: 173
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-24 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022266-1953.1199434.5700443.84499104.78924608696005.65.6TF21.11994264.11994173462.84595833684 48.5012790285130.4031846871791816 2121122.5WETL
2022-06-24 00:00:01FORECAST2022266-1839.0739.0739.07107.96135066667005.65.6TF7.07250.07174464.4378574367350.1413383896030.056862385180877161121122WETL
2022-06-23 12:00:01FORECAST2022266-1853.2443.1448.19107.805752005.65.6TF21.24264.24174464.3851000221750.0633849254850.40760830770322162121122.5WETL
2022-06-23 08:00:01FORECAST2022266-1853.736.6945.195107.5399080.00470.00475.65.6047TF21.7264.7174464.2949144739149.9302323873920.42466155441282162121122.5WETL
2022-06-23 04:00:06FORECAST2022266-1855.1238.5246.82107.228549750.00340.00345.65.6034TF23.12266.12174464.1892111057949.774335916470.47806036718335162121122.5WETL
2022-06-23 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1955.541.548.5108.8463520.00250.00255.65.6025TF23.5252.5173464.2305504586450.5298019043750.49245795274821162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2022266-1955.5141.6548.58109.8962080.00430.01435.65.6143TF23.51262.51173464.586523154251.0562971825510.49283705167897162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 16:00:01FORECAST2022266-1955.0543.649.325109.856301333330.00030.01035.65.6103TF23.05262.05173464.5730094242551.0362725146440.47541074290795162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2022266-1954.914348.955108.633845333330.00150.01155.65.6115TF22.91261.91173464.1583806340950.4233097319740.47011487195257162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 08:00:02FORECAST2022266-1953.943.3448.62108.3545533333300.025.65.62TF21.9258.9173464.0634704438850.2833900582640.43212221826256162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 04:00:06FORECAST2022266-1953.8143.2948.55108.2040947500.025.65.62TF21.81262.81173464.0123130584650.2080322873440.42876175799449162121122.5WETL
2022-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1953.2743.2248.245109.495521333330.00290.02295.65.6229TF21.27249.27173464.4507750785650.8552797508980.40871552561005162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022266-1954.8743.549.185110.398542666670.00160.02165.65.6216TF22.87262.87173464.7565133549651.3084417692280.46860269516961162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 16:00:02FORECAST2022266-1950.0838.3444.21111.6721120.00480.01485.65.6148TF18.08254.08173465.1865188271951.948361031360.29665600146699162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022266-1950.0737.9744.02110.2576120.00480.02485.65.6248TF18.07254.07173464.7088442627151.2376874436860.29632728823955162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 08:00:03FORECAST2022266-1949.6337.7243.675110.064365333330.00620.02625.65.6262TF17.63249.63173464.6434517981251.140686628450.28203211592013162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 04:00:06FORECAST2022266-1949.8637.5443.7109.474770833330.00620.01625.65.6162TF17.86248.86173464.4437412823250.8448721418580.2894631967975162121122.5WETL
2022-06-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1949.8137.1743.49109.568593333330.00630.02635.585.6063TF17.81247.81173464.4755413406250.891931702430.28783995222057162121122.5WETL
2022-06-20 20:00:02FORECAST2022266-1952.1738.245.185110.506437333330.0060.0265.595.616TF20.17257.17173464.7929966547251.3626181577970.36866265921035162121122.5WETL
2022-06-20 16:00:03FORECAST2022266-1948.4837.4542.965110.5635640.00440.01445.595.6044TF16.48254.48173464.8123093104451.3913055084330.24631583103097161121122WETL
2022-06-20 12:00:02FORECAST2022266-1951.8637.8344.845109.577158666670.00460.03465.595.6246TF19.86257.86173464.4784440844550.8962281646890.35760762205807162121122.5WETL
2022-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022266-1949.7640.4645.11109.468481333330.00240.03245.595.6224TF17.76252.76173464.4416092575150.841717633430.28622101512542162121122.5WETL
2022-06-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022266-1955.5739.2147.39109.324682166670.00220.01225.65.6122TF23.57263.57173464.3928546926150.769601239740.49511176914249162121122.5WETL
2022-06-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1957.2144.0450.625110.1740840.00130.00135.265.2613TF25.21265.21173464.680583280151.195757615470.55709809269794163121123WETL
2022-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022266-1952.3340.0346.18110.4668786666700.015.295.3TF20.33263.33173464.7796215224151.3427540574550.37441196058223162121122.5WETL
2022-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2022266-1952.3342.3847.355110.3612626666700.015.295.3TF20.33263.33173464.743905241551.289724199090.37441196058223162121122.5WETL
2022-06-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022266-1956.3944.5750.48109.2761840.00420.01425.295.3042TF24.39270.39173464.3764075560750.7452817573560.52618421293152163121123WETL
2022-06-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022266-1953.0944.548.795109.5156240.00380.02385.35.3238TF21.09262.09173464.4575889252250.8653626726810.40208344864994162121122.5WETL
2022-06-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022266-1956.0844.4750.275108.695052750.00330.00335.315.3133TF24.08273.08173464.1791714046350.4539795212770.51444581890277163121123WETL
2022-06-19 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1957.3844.6951.035110.18828004.864.86TF25.38270.38173464.6853867979151.2028835123960.56347006749272163121123WETL
2022-06-18 20:00:04FORECAST2022266-1955.1741.0148.09110.54820533333005.035.03TF23.17270.17173464.8071173234951.3835926462720.47995355670103162121122.5WETL
2022-06-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022266-1955.244.6749.935110.25415333333005.035.03TF23.2271.2173464.7076741714951.235951163280.48108969025083162121122.5WETL
2022-06-18 12:00:04FORECAST2022266-1954.3543.0848.715110.177948005.055.05TF22.35270.35173464.6818907636451.1976971970980.44899348236921162121122.5WETL
2022-06-18 08:00:04FORECAST2022266-1952.541.3646.93110.86570933333005.055.05TF20.5258.5173464.9144081622451.5430656401940.38055130141061162121122.5WETL
2022-06-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022266-1952.541.3546.925110.24470291667005.095.09TF20.5267.5173464.7044769767651.2312070083480.38055130141061162121122.5WETL
2022-06-18 00:00:03FORECAST2022266-1952.1937.244.695112.3951013333300.034.724.75TF20.19248.19173465.4300092821352.3120530568390.36937974714988162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 20:00:04FORECAST2022266-1952.1337.3744.75112.2774586666700.044.985.02TF20.13261.13173465.3904196951752.2528536111880.36722985614534162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 16:00:04FORECAST2022266-1952.1537.4144.78112.513400.054.975.02TF20.15260.15173465.4698077016652.371590661860.36794602811094162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022266-1949.5238.9844.25112.51979600.025.125.14TF17.52251.52173465.471959123952.3748098843420.27851085628948162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022266-1950.2539.0344.64112.80794400.025.325.34TF18.25242.25173465.5688472063952.5198644438030.30226946226065162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 04:00:07FORECAST2022266-1951.3740.0445.705112.4198146666700.015.315.32TF19.37248.37173465.4383244097452.3244901689070.34037769786368162121122.5WETL
2022-06-17 00:00:04FORECAST2022266-1951.3641.1846.27113.870082666670.03830.03835.145.1783TF19.36240.36173465.9253733131853.0549607756690.34002936459883162121122.5WETL
2022-06-16 20:00:04FORECAST2022266-1952.2542.747.475114.655898666670.02220.02225.125.1422TF20.25250.25173466.1885283447353.4512646654560.37153372900092162121122.5WETL
2022-06-16 16:00:04FORECAST2022266-1950.6742.7146.69115.126906666670.02130.02135.145.1613TF18.67248.67173466.3460085028253.6889733952770.31633774832377162121122.5WETL
2022-06-16 12:00:04FORECAST2022266-1941.7236.1638.94115.5950720.00710.02715.065.0871TF9.72232.72173466.502351633953.925372925290.091895648180153161121122WETL
2022-06-16 08:00:04FORECAST2022266-1939.0637.8338.445115.5348840.00670.02675.075.0967TF7.06227.06173466.4822623517253.8949740688640.056753581689196161121122WETL
2022-06-16 04:00:08FORECAST2022266-1939.0638.2238.64115.429735666670.00420.02425.095.1142TF7.06228.06173466.4471590398453.8418722704360.056753581689196161121122WETL