Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 18, 2022

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DAY 261 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/19/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.75°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.47°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.043 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 259 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.47 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.95 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.56 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.51 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 118 in SWE DAY: 168 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.64 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 54.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-19 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	261	-24	36.75002	34.19006	35.47004	117.54077541667	0.47000000000003	0.95000000000003	6.56	7.51	T	T	4.75002	258.75002	168	464.64213010138	54.614396263367	0.042547360855104	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	261	-23	36.86	36.86	36.86	118.973432	0.006	0.486	6.56	7.046	T	T	4.86	258.86	169	465.62975044659	55.397569451935	0.043527737320768	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-23	37.83	33.44	35.635	118.75722533333	0.1464	0.6264	6.56	7.1864	T	T	5.83	259.83	169	465.55709231499	55.288268517583	0.052982293192441	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-23	37.23	31.5	34.365	118.831572	0.1504	0.6304	6.56	7.1904	T	T	5.23	259.23	169	465.58208166069	55.325850658772	0.046960046522616	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	261	-23	38.69	31.6	35.145	118.39911091667	0.1914	0.6714	6.56	7.2314	T	T	6.69	260.69	169	465.4366570346	55.107286380922	0.062659772109347	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	38.66	31.64	35.15	119.56042533333	0.1902	0.2502	6.56	6.8102	T	T	6.66	249.66	168	465.3239806742	55.634333047207	0.06230052104603	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	38.11	32.26	35.185	119.62023066667	0.1654	0.4854	6.56	7.0454	T	T	6.11	259.11	168	465.34411817735	55.664570755751	0.055994107268534	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.74	33.04	35.39	119.56747733333	0.2096	0.5296	6.56	7.0896	T	T	5.74	258.74	168	465.32635536519	55.63789844773	0.052041883786954	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.32	33	35.16	119.215588	0.2989	0.6189	6.56	7.1789	T	T	5.32	258.32	168	465.2078082158	55.460022398638	0.047826826362553	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.92	32.84	35.38	119.15124533333	0.3057	0.7857	6.56	7.3457	T	T	5.92	254.92	168	465.18612050919	55.427505570452	0.053936084285335	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.14	33.14	35.14	119.35346133333	0.3422	0.7522	6.56	7.3122	T	T	5.14	253.14	168	465.25426865571	55.529707364167	0.046105869235928	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	36.43	33.42	34.925	120.90737733333	0.2522	0.6322	6.56	7.1922	T	T	4.43	242.43	168	465.77678243402	56.315849186856	0.039795571047255	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	38.96	33.95	36.455	121.68690666667	0.2415	0.6915	6.56	7.2515	T	T	6.96	251.96	168	466.03812818197	56.710738207188	0.065965837430303	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	39.23	34.04	36.635	121.76939866667	0.2118	0.7018	6.56	7.2618	T	T	7.23	251.23	168	466.06575426344	56.752546635785	0.069405015325422	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.44	34.41	35.925	121.04714266667	0.1834	0.6734	6.56	7.2334	T	T	5.44	249.44	168	465.82367837309	56.386625253539	0.049002340166243	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	38.54	34.52	36.53	120.82771066667	0.2429	0.6929	6.56	7.2529	T	T	6.54	249.54	168	465.75004415534	56.275511578188	0.060879505657417	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	37.84	34.65	36.245	120.75224633333	0.2239	0.6939	6.56	7.2539	T	T	5.84	248.84	168	465.72471130239	56.237305062707	0.053087607040293	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	38.92	33.7	36.31	119.48746533333	0.2054	0.7654	6.44	7.2054	T	T	6.92	237.92	168	465.29940962175	55.5974470768	0.065467720941529	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	41.12	33.79	37.455	120.41071333333	0.2203	0.7303	6.44	7.1703	T	T	9.12	251.12	168	465.61000030795	56.064432272213	0.09743727700957	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	40.63	34.54	37.585	120.30624533333	0.352	0.912	6.44	7.352	T	T	8.63	250.63	168	465.57489266818	56.011567258378	0.089479510715221	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	41.97	34.17	38.07	119.19908133333	0.3393	0.7593	6.44	7.1993	T	T	9.97	252.97	168	465.20224472249	55.451680205126	0.11244723947758	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	43.47	33.81	38.64	119.151084	0.339	0.829	6.45	7.279	T	T	11.47	252.47	168	465.1860661248	55.427424040466	0.14281059945904	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.32	34.25	39.285	119.30170375	0.2013	0.6913	6.45	7.1413	T	T	12.32	255.32	168	465.23682933627	55.503546387066	0.1622716849426	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.88	36.67	40.775	117.56369066667	0.1395	0.7695	6.13	6.8995	T	T	12.88	256.88	168	464.64988611466	54.625955479486	0.17599225107758	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.05	35.56	39.805	117.315504	0.1963	0.7163	6.14	6.8563	T	T	12.05	263.05	168	464.56585954245	54.500777953416	0.15591157823063	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.07	38.09	41.08	117.154292	0.2252	0.6952	6.14	6.8352	T	T	12.07	264.07	168	464.51125090152	54.419486725402	0.15637699903767	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.15	38.38	41.265	116.72450266667	0.1921	0.4721	6.15	6.6221	T	T	12.15	265.15	168	464.36555557441	54.202838529954	0.15824779931571	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	40.56	37.65	39.105	117.09545443008	0.2125	0.4525	6.17	6.6225	T	T	8.56	259.56	168	464.49131480643	54.389821586087	0.088383194694455	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	40.6	37.69	39.145	117.3914329626	0.2125	0.5025	6.26	6.7625	T	T	8.6	259.6	168	464.59157182727	54.539070359152	0.089008433000512	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	46.23	39.99	43.11	116.83068905253	0.0684	0.4984	5.97	6.4684	T	F	14.23	267.23	168	464.40156674955	54.256355040425	0.21197489513147	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	45.67	35.91	40.79	117.6542495999	0.0299	0.5499	6.11	6.6599	T	T	13.67	270.67	168	464.68053273981	54.671639383185	0.19655512069185	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	45.61	37.66	41.635	118.09607647889	0.027	0.557	6.2	6.757	T	T	13.61	263.61	168	464.82995313259	54.894593694827	0.19494421531851	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.52	37.09	40.805	118.04293171787	0.0275	0.3775	6.13	6.5075	T	F	12.52	260.52	168	464.81198910152	54.867769891159	0.16708997603014	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	45.26	37	41.13	118.3335869009	0.0248	0.3848	6.25	6.6348	T	T	13.26	256.26	168	464.91020695092	55.014492375342	0.18570786656448	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	45.26	37	41.13	118.65312599088	0.0248	0.3948	6.39	6.7848	T	T	13.26	256.26	168	465.0181015709	55.175851393731	0.18570786656448	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	48.17	39.32	43.745	121.6646232196	0.0209	0.1909	6.22	6.4109	T	F	16.17	258.17	168	466.03066459467	56.699445216691	0.27054979127918	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	45.84	39.15	42.495	121.09430668339	0.063	0.193	6.7	6.893	T	T	13.84	264.84	168	465.83949971999	56.410511244329	0.20116286564528	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	46.67	39.11	42.89	120.59822781596	0.063	0.193	6.63	6.823	T	T	14.67	266.67	168	465.67299328415	56.15933773182	0.22457116919074	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	43.64	36.79	40.215	121.9475958007	0.0218	0.0918	6.53	6.6218	T	F	11.64	260.64	168	466.12541167261	56.842873295084	0.14657125561473	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	43.67	36.8	40.235	121.93609664111	0.0218	0.1418	6.45	6.5918	T	F	11.67	256.67	168	466.12156276197	56.837043923449	0.14724171890024	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	44.56	34.23	39.395	121.16028287801	0.013	0.073	6.28	6.353	T	F	12.56	263.56	168	465.86162850292	56.443926691426	0.16806456495043	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	47.1	39.72	43.41	120.06396191047	0.0568	0.1368	6.19	6.3268	T	F	15.1	255.1	168	465.49343474912	55.888986019294	0.23728057128902	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	46.87	39.72	43.295	123.09905975188	0.035	0.125	6.28	6.405	T	F	14.87	269.87	168	466.51025219108	57.426973409335	0.23043399213878	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	51.77	43.93	47.85	122.83813792371	0.0009	0.0809	6.3	6.3809	T	F	19.77	274.77	168	466.42314589867	57.294550726711	0.39683966054835	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	48.78	42.97	45.875	122.56778089189	0	0.08	6.34	6.42	T	F	16.78	273.78	168	466.33282883379	57.157379987195	0.29050595735056	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	40.15	38.77	39.46	123.78730764969	0	0.14	6.29	6.43	T	F	8.15	249.15	168	466.73974048572	57.776455847844	0.082161514607433	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	261	-24	40.19	39.12	39.655	123.9740614945	0	0.14	6.35	6.49	T	F	8.19	252.19	168	466.80194222589	57.871332691267	0.082753631390615	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L