Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 14, 2022

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DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/15/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.96°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.58°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.054 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.33 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.90 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 123 in SWE DAY: 164 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.59 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 57.32 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -28 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-15 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	257	-28	35.20004	29.96006	32.58005	123.37409708333	0.32999999999993	1.1499999999999	5.9	7.0499999999999	T	T	3.20004	241.20004	164	464.59103417552	57.318499354417	0.053542661234638	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	257	-27	34.02	34.02	34.02	121.98895733333	0.0002	0.8202	5.9	6.7202	T	T	2.02	240.02	165	464.62858802421	56.679557000332	0.042534839340865	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	257	-27	36.83	32.82	34.825	121.786964	0.017	0.837	5.9	6.737	T	T	4.83	242.83	165	464.56019384112	56.577375603161	0.072307551875948	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	257	-27	36.89	26.96	31.925	121.83111843008	0.0373	0.8573	5.9	6.7573	T	T	4.89	242.89	165	464.57514736217	56.599709797954	0.07308372872278	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-27	37.35	27.42	32.385	122.15541429594	0.1502	0.9702	5.9	6.8702	T	T	5.35	243.35	165	464.68492335834	56.763779329914	0.079246940723862	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.04	26.97	32.005	122.23317705253	0.2688	0.6688	5.9	6.5688	T	T	5.04	242.04	164	464.20415289925	56.741148409854	0.07505195840415	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.12	25.09	31.105	122.43938693324	0.2627	0.8127	5.9	6.7127	T	T	5.12	247.12	164	464.2741608514	56.845443623589	0.076118022042746	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	36.52	25.6	31.06	122.75892447889	0.3475	0.8975	5.9	6.7975	T	T	4.52	246.52	164	464.38257097185	57.007104959249	0.068397240504502	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	36.08	27.74	31.91	122.55790638454	0.2828	0.8328	5.9	6.7328	T	T	4.08	246.08	164	464.31438144039	56.905398493567	0.063128922111989	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	35.61	26.67	31.14	122.5849589009	0.3098	0.9398	5.9	6.8398	T	T	3.61	245.61	164	464.32356024595	56.919084549469	0.05785515031771	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	35.71	26.61	31.16	123.04941932421	0.3581	1.0881	5.9	6.9881	T	T	3.71	242.71	164	464.48105139238	57.154123660932	0.058947300325931	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	34.24	25.56	29.9	126.69067655293	0.4418	0.9218	5.9	6.8218	T	T	2.24	237.24	164	465.70932688979	59.001029700679	0.04443575144115	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	33.89	25.19	29.54	126.14479601672	0.4649	1.4149	5.9	7.3149	T	T	1.89	242.89	164	465.52591256242	58.723671280685	0.041442742767066	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	33.89	25.5	29.695	125.71147448262	0.4068	1.3368	5.9	7.2368	T	T	1.89	242.89	164	465.38013657563	58.503623163846	0.041442742767066	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	33.95	25.54	29.745	126.27615713403	0.3712	1.2412	5.9	7.1412	T	T	1.95	242.95	164	465.57007276722	58.790399665655	0.041943939459884	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	34.87	26.16	30.515	125.98427264111	0.3687	1.1587	5.9	7.0587	T	T	2.87	245.87	164	465.47192875397	58.642142378923	0.050258719426548	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	35.14	27.17	31.155	125.55865354468	0.2791	0.9891	5.9	6.8891	T	T	3.14	245.14	164	465.32868699385	58.426043394662	0.05293296559689	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	35.58	27.37	31.475	125.05437257714	0.2466	0.9866	5.82	6.8066	T	T	3.58	235.58	164	465.1587710941	58.170138267926	0.057530615499075	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	36.1	28.32	32.21	127.85861308521	0.2369	0.9769	5.92	6.8969	T	T	4.1	247.1	164	466.10089719799	59.595014273509	0.063361351624593	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	36.99	28.27	32.63	127.95925659038	0.2203	1.0003	5.92	6.9203	T	T	4.99	246.99	164	466.13458529005	59.646235004778	0.074391454614638	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.1	28.45	32.775	127.23401822522	0.2361	1.0261	5.92	6.9461	T	T	5.1	248.1	164	465.89163580123	59.277264880513	0.075850435267367	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.57	28.67	33.12	127.03926364969	0.2312	0.9812	5.92	6.9012	T	T	5.57	239.57	164	465.82631819536	59.178232452186	0.082329702792547	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.6	27.17	32.385	127.12734416117	0.2222	1.0022	5.96	6.9622	T	T	5.6	243.6	164	465.8558630086	59.223018626194	0.0827569587366	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.16	28.78	32.97	130.66405544232	0.2865	0.9665	5.6	6.5665	T	T	5.16	236.16	164	467.03673608214	61.024913977037	0.076655343150838	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.55	27.91	32.73	131.85346029197	0.3127	1.0127	6.37	7.3827	T	T	5.55	244.55	164	467.43148896813	61.632459269877	0.08204578656343	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.24	27.76	32.5	132.42496138738	0.3439	1.2739	6.3	7.5739	T	T	5.24	245.24	164	467.62074133263	61.924658614913	0.077738602616039	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	39.66	29.48	34.57	130.51635585592	0.1487	0.9387	6.32	7.2587	T	T	7.66	244.66	164	466.98763260908	60.949524037922	0.11621786070428	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	41.94	29.14	35.54	129.48047270279	0.109	0.659	6.67	7.329	T	T	9.94	240.94	164	466.64272987739	60.421121247846	0.16328722456467	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	41.11	30.12	35.615	128.93258680195	0.06	0.68	6.63	7.31	T	T	9.11	244.11	164	466.45994114021	60.141886850692	0.14489412604401	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.89	30.5	37.195	129.85284688175	0.0456	0.9056	4.62	5.5256	T	F	11.89	247.89	164	466.76681830305	60.611000186586	0.21217471915164	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.9	30.09	36.995	129.83587045885	0.046	0.756	6.06	6.816	T	T	11.9	241.9	164	466.76116370337	60.602341985812	0.21244559779897	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	42.59	28.73	35.66	128.76395488968	0.0581	0.5481	5.93	6.4781	T	T	10.59	244.59	164	466.40363001061	60.055975975071	0.17870369056906	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.56	31.39	37.475	128.78183760936	0.0991	0.7191	5.93	6.6491	T	T	11.56	240.56	164	466.40960271728	60.065085716582	0.2033493284747	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.58	31.39	37.485	129.04174396133	0.101	0.791	6.09	6.881	T	T	11.58	241.58	164	466.49637905218	60.197506304539	0.20387789700301	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.5	31.41	37.455	129.44850627994	0.1103	0.8503	6.29	7.1403	T	T	11.5	241.5	164	466.6320720482	60.404824708954	0.20176852638425	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.21	30.57	36.89	129.70187222987	0.0573	0.7773	6.89	7.6673	T	T	11.21	232.21	164	466.71652228241	60.534006740642	0.19423209452614	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.21	30.57	36.89	130.36662532918	0.0573	0.7773	6.58	7.3573	T	T	11.21	241.21	164	466.93783513288	60.873109804786	0.19423209452614	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	43.42	32.59	38.005	130.53791765957	0.0573	0.8173	5.8	6.6173	T	T	11.42	241.42	164	466.99480208792	60.960529022399	0.19967225257964	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	51.03	35.79	43.41	127.20850213271	0.0132	0.3532	5.7	6.0532	T	F	19.03	252.03	164	465.88307994639	59.264288768952	0.44738549228141	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	51.06	35.79	43.425	126.76076630526	0.0132	0.3632	6.05	6.4132	T	F	19.06	249.06	164	465.7328584324	59.036654028431	0.44849329239936	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-08 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	51.97	36.39	44.18	125.83827426087	0.0121	0.3721	5.32	5.6921	T	F	19.97	260.97	164	465.42281056603	58.568003283273	0.48224748872367	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	49.81	36.06	42.935	126.70845271891	0.0049	0.3449	5.59	5.9349	T	F	17.81	243.81	164	465.71529535715	59.010064482233	0.40277687487922	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	49.71	36.41	43.06	127.98019535055	0.0063	0.3263	5.12	5.4463	T	F	17.71	250.71	164	466.14159297491	59.656892129944	0.39916779106619	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	48.47	36.41	42.44	128.36016933333	0.0063	0.3163	5.08	5.3963	T	F	16.47	248.47	164	466.26869613664	59.850328790931	0.3552196490198	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	39.93	35.9	37.915	127.63273746614	0.0152	0.3452	5.14	5.4852	T	F	7.93	241.93	164	466.02525918439	59.48007955807	0.12122837954402	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-07 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	37.35	36.1	36.725	127.21743206493	0.0136	0.3936	4.76	5.1536	T	F	5.35	238.35	164	465.88607432388	59.268830010295	0.079246940723862	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	257	-28	36.27	35.43	35.85	127.24913252487	0.0117	0.4117	4.85	5.2617	T	F	4.27	238.27	164	465.89670354744	59.284951372608	0.065363893013855	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L