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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 10, 2022

[ Thursday, June 9, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 11, 2022 ]

DAY 253 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.339
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 271

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.91 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 160
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-11 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022253-3248.3000839.5299443.91501125.162151250.560000000000062.91000000000013.796.7000000000001TT16.30008271.30008160463.16258263039 57.9704252205250.3392230633719116 21251212.5WETL
2022-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2022253-3142.1542.1542.15128.944513333330.03162.38163.796.1716TT10.15265.15161464.9569783015459.9536512880290.145597589142961611251210WETL
2022-06-10 12:00:01FORECAST2022253-3148.5939.2343.91129.2929960.74773.09773.796.8877TT16.59271.59161465.0746002179160.1308884256760.350348426482491621251212.5WETL
2022-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2022253-3145.0138.941.955129.082420.89053.24053.797.0305TT13.01268.01161465.0035378181660.023781970130.224409543508171611251210WETL
2022-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2022253-3146.2139.5642.885128.391587393940.8413.1913.796.981TT14.21269.21161464.770137711159.6725757540280.263580958945381621251212.5WETL
2022-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2022253-3247.3340.143.715128.5582761.20041.31043.795.1004TF15.33270.33160464.3198501664859.6921594499810.303048900827211621241210WETL
2022-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2022253-3245.6139.8242.715129.5435161.46042.76043.796.5504TT13.61265.61160464.6537178460360.1928763322470.243570685565161611251210WETL
2022-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2022253-3245.5340.7243.125129.5072721.17042.47043.796.2604TT13.53265.53160464.6414506606360.1744467331810.240965950455261611251210WETL
2022-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2022253-3246.8441.3444.09128.774957333331.14382.44383.796.2338TT14.84266.84160464.3933485243959.8022336421120.285457802041921621251212.5WETL
2022-06-09 08:00:02FORECAST2022253-3246.6941.6944.19128.558422666671.35892.61893.796.4089TT14.69267.69160464.3198999295359.6922339476850.280171527558911621251212.5WETL
2022-06-09 04:00:06FORECAST2022253-3245.7142.0143.86128.682362916671.45632.72633.796.5163TT13.71266.71160464.3619454265859.7551923860730.246847838736751611251210WETL
2022-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3245.9642.2744.115130.063142666671.63572.86573.796.6557TT13.96253.96160464.8294671754560.4571813049120.255142760863751621251212.5WETL
2022-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2022253-3246.0942.7444.415130.984861.47882.81883.796.6088TT14.09261.09160465.1406424557760.9263819323780.259512947750731621251212.5WETL
2022-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022253-3246.6340.8543.74131.0212681.05152.22153.796.0115TT14.63260.63160465.1529189849460.9449252593090.278070364658331621251212.5WETL
2022-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022253-3246.5341.6644.095130.0989321.11452.26453.796.0545TT14.53260.53160464.8415633900160.475390946250.274585581478421621251212.5WETL
2022-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2022253-3245.440.442.9130.009989333331.01742.18743.795.9774TT13.4260.4160464.8115001809660.4301381805370.236765714628141611251210WETL
2022-06-08 04:00:06FORECAST2022253-3246.242.3944.295130.029184927541.00011.94013.795.7301TF14.2261.2160464.8179889933760.4399042484650.263240721079841621251212.5WETL
2022-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3246.5342.3644.445130.358745333331.02952.05953.785.8395TT14.53246.53160464.9293431268660.6076058386680.274585581478421621251212.5WETL
2022-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2022253-3246.5143.1144.81131.3364960.97411.71413.825.5341TF14.51258.51160465.2591642610961.105508365940.273891215714571621251212.5WETL
2022-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2022253-3248.6942.6945.69131.436809333330.72331.59333.825.4133TF16.69259.69160465.2929562925761.156621580370.354216374027391621251212.5WETL
2022-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2022253-3248.5342.4445.485130.3236320.86271.73273.825.5527TF16.53259.53160464.9174832287760.5897349946730.348035051144261621251212.5WETL
2022-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2022253-3246.4642.644.53129.795989333330.83981.34983.825.1698TF14.46258.46160464.7391389314460.3212763195270.272159103580721621241210WETL
2022-06-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022253-3248.0144.4246.215129.4089021.15341.55343.815.3634TF16.01264.01160464.6081505461460.1244306224260.328230027501921621251212.5WETL
2022-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3248.5244.6546.585130.169509333330.90241.23243.815.0424TF16.52262.52160464.8654141625960.5113028675810.347650034738531621241210WETL
2022-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2022253-3248.0844.5346.305130.173390666670.80611.08613.844.9261TF16.08271.08160464.8667256891260.5132778910640.3308696639031621241210WETL
2022-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2022253-3248.2443.8246.03130.3584921.05371.42373.875.2937TF16.24272.24160464.9292575646560.6074769028070.336934589918421621241210WETL
2022-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2022253-3248.0443.3945.715130.005181333331.07291.42293.895.3129TF16.04266.04160464.8098748516960.4276920656170.329360260744841621241210WETL
2022-06-06 08:00:04FORECAST2022253-3248.9942.7445.865129.670566666670.98781.37783.915.2878TF16.99269.99160464.6967106421960.2574857971090.365909303658041621241210WETL
2022-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2022253-3248.9742.7545.86129.975565839990.8881.0783.894.968TF16.97268.97160464.7998629896560.4126251944320.365125747724731621241210WETL
2022-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3249.7143.6646.685131.376350666670.48010.72012.883.6001TF17.71264.71160465.2725909264761.1258150611450.39446614501465162123127.5DRYL
2022-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2022253-3250.8243.3347.075131.5275040.85641.18643.434.6164TF18.82268.82160465.3235007233961.202838602690.439570749848561621241210WETL
2022-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2022253-3254.2943.3848.835131.322613333330.79921.26923.434.6992TF22.29276.29160465.2544870010161.0984350980320.582950009731971631241212WETL
2022-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2022253-3255.1148.6451.875130.445377333330.34070.85073.424.2707TF23.11276.11160464.9585994733160.6516999526740.61595487825809163123129WETL
2022-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2022253-3254.3746.6950.53130.330358666670.66941.00943.564.5694TF22.37276.37160464.9197553131860.5931584611860.586199942349961631241212WETL
2022-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2022253-3254.3246.5350.425129.756053333330.66940.95943.964.9194TF22.32278.32160464.7256307494860.3009637288960.58416941133801163123129WETL
2022-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3257.2246.7151.965130.635654666670.72150.95153.684.6315TF25.22277.22160465.0228351167360.7485625004240.69661842065634163123129WETL
2022-06-04 20:00:04FORECAST2022253-3258.9747.5553.26131.3074360.6030.8934.365.253TF26.97289.97160465.2493733613361.0907023166820.757109965993981641231210.5WETL
2022-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2022253-3258.9747.4953.23131.940864687040.6030.8634.235.093TF26.97287.97160465.4626245336361.4135411604670.757109965993981641231210.5WETL
2022-06-04 12:00:04FORECAST2022253-3261.0849.1555.115130.044255938730.53060.87064.225.0906TF29.08294.08160464.8230833242860.447572014050.820411437940551641231210.5WETL
2022-06-04 08:00:04FORECAST2022253-3262.0349.3655.695130.240112152730.45850.58853.914.4985TF30.03288.03160464.8892692703160.5472305683670.845178433253731641231210.5WETL
2022-06-04 04:00:08FORECAST2022253-3262.0249.3555.685129.923390424620.45850.52853.984.5085TF30.02294.02160464.7822226512560.3860821759410.844930046467621641231210.5WETL
2022-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022253-3249.8345.2147.52132.639763177760.85931.11933.874.9893TF17.83268.83160465.6975190951261.7700086452490.39928596556121621241210WETL
2022-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022253-3258.4148.153.255133.208295527030.3410.3614.474.831TF26.41291.41160465.888291240762.0601851821760.7384862619848164122127WETL
2022-06-03 16:00:04FORECAST2022253-3258.5548.4453.495133.192809370040.32210.34214.64.9421TF26.55292.55160465.8830984792962.0522787244750.74320984617674164122127WETL
2022-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2022253-3252.5549.4751.01132.598086982170.35280.36284.484.8428TF20.55283.55160465.6835237253961.7487443851030.51123804764569163122126WETL
2022-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2022253-3251.7649.450.58133.592434966420.24030.25034.534.7803TF19.76280.76160466.01703411862.2563503236530.47841633345058162122125WETL
2022-06-03 04:00:07FORECAST2022253-3251.7951.6551.72133.081607857630.06830.07834.64.6783TF19.79286.79160465.8458047957661.9955087159510.47966146243407162121122.5WETL