Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 1, 2022

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DAY 244 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/02/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.49°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.68°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.58°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.513 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.29 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 146 in SWE DAY: 151 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.55 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 67.81 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -41 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	244	-41	52.48994	44.67992	48.58493	145.66571916667	0.089999999999918	0.15999999999992	4.13	4.2899999999999	T	F	20.48994	217.48994	151	465.5501539684	67.814697985959	0.51256159232806	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	244	-40	45.28	45.28	45.28	146.92740266667	0.0016	0.0716	4.13	4.2016	T	F	13.28	210.28	152	466.47398243349	68.537810650529	0.26189245386066	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-01 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	244	-40	52.49	43.92	48.205	146.92984533333	0.1757	0.2457	4.13	4.3757	T	F	20.49	217.49	152	466.47479784704	68.539069899563	0.51256381224877	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-40	49.88	44.57	47.225	146.629124	0.1822	0.2522	4.13	4.3822	T	F	17.88	214.88	152	466.3743726984	68.384065724816	0.41656903899556	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-01 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	244	-40	48.02	42.29	45.155	146.65531841667	0.2542	0.3242	4.13	4.4542	T	F	16.02	213.02	152	466.38312330948	68.397565453112	0.35076140505184	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.39	42.75	47.07	146.146964	0.2167	0.2867	4.13	4.4167	T	F	19.39	206.39	151	465.71183453835	68.062370716651	0.4718705019336	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.33	40.36	45.845	147.239952	0.2028	0.3928	4.13	4.5228	T	F	19.33	212.33	151	466.07830500687	68.625347257452	0.46965544985766	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.84	41.39	46.615	147.09934933333	0.222	0.412	4.13	4.542	T	F	19.84	212.84	151	466.03121901556	68.55288908621	0.48850640843997	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	52.52	43.94	48.23	145.970592	0.2084	0.3984	4.13	4.5284	T	F	20.52	213.52	151	465.65260297248	67.971586122234	0.51367372241675	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	52.24	44.04	48.14	145.74514666667	0.2129	0.4129	4.13	4.5429	T	F	20.24	213.24	151	465.57685230735	67.85556662414	0.50331159335206	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	52.54	43.73	48.135	146.00179425	0.1831	0.3931	4.13	4.5231	T	F	20.54	213.54	151	465.66308365467	67.98764572957	0.51441360421972	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.93	43.78	47.855	146.590276	0.1742	0.3442	4.13	4.4742	T	F	19.93	211.93	151	465.86059629286	68.290633388095	0.49183692070929	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.86	43.87	47.865	146.60744133333	0.1609	0.3609	4.13	4.4909	T	F	19.86	210.86	151	465.86635307832	68.299474028103	0.48924646119952	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.78	44.08	47.93	146.486628	0.1272	0.3172	4.13	4.4472	T	F	19.78	210.78	151	465.82583024161	68.237255107393	0.48628649777162	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	53.13	43.83	48.48	146.21924520219	0.1244	0.3444	4.13	4.4744	T	F	21.13	211.13	151	465.73610129823	68.099581195236	0.5362069423983	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	49.61	44.41	47.01	146.4326726737	0.1214	0.3314	4.13	4.4614	T	F	17.61	208.61	151	465.80772869475	68.209470664838	0.40682055148593	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	53.15	43.64	48.395	146.36845098341	0.1328	0.3328	4.13	4.4628	T	F	21.15	212.15	151	465.78617963732	68.176401602995	0.53694416937362	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	53.45	43.88	48.665	148.23829589838	0.1218	0.3518	3.98	4.3318	T	F	21.45	210.45	151	466.41215413931	69.140142915906	0.54798594429183	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	54.67	43.53	49.1	147.29794795891	0.1107	0.3807	4.17	4.5507	T	F	22.67	213.67	151	466.0977221957	68.65523802775	0.59242050562097	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.38	43.07	47.225	147.41086531512	0.0898	0.3898	4.17	4.5598	T	F	19.38	209.38	151	466.13551899766	68.713440209557	0.4715012642987	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.78	42.89	47.335	148.21684804774	0.1108	0.4208	4.17	4.5908	T	F	19.78	208.78	151	466.40499080973	69.129077651554	0.48628649777162	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.85	42.89	47.37	148.6764515591	0.1077	0.3577	4.26	4.6177	T	F	19.85	209.85	151	466.55840758607	69.36624848496	0.48887643003252	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	55.91	43.81	49.86	148.2616704292	0.0928	0.3528	4.32	4.6728	T	F	23.91	214.91	151	466.41996051301	69.152202467182	0.6363929393706	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	58.26	43.16	50.71	150.13040865875	0.0848	0.3448	4.06	4.4048	T	F	26.26	214.26	151	467.04256423176	70.117291029143	0.71460727889492	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	58.34	41.3	49.82	149.95875746735	0.0784	0.2384	4.43	4.6684	T	F	26.34	218.34	151	466.98549873228	70.028565145162	0.71712397296453	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	57.76	43.6	50.68	149.02840907022	0.14	0.31	4.45	4.76	T	F	25.76	218.76	151	466.67577083485	69.547947679139	0.69864156452204	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	57.89	43.46	50.675	148.71867364744	0.1386	0.3286	4.43	4.7586	T	F	25.89	216.89	151	466.57249244225	69.388042236392	0.70283116649739	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	56.9	44.93	50.915	148.74689921824	0.082	0.262	4.55	4.812	T	F	24.9	216.9	151	466.58190736116	69.402611951305	0.67028343205489	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	60.41	43.11	51.76	148.65986177335	0.0743	0.3043	4.62	4.9243	T	F	28.41	224.41	151	466.55287299011	69.35768560867	0.7782881260665	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	62.8	42.08	52.44	151.06406815057	0.0152	0.2052	4.37	4.5752	T	F	30.8	214.8	151	467.352524321	70.600173584368	0.83849584444579	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	62.47	42.08	52.275	150.9020504662	0.0525	0.2525	4.53	4.7825	T	F	30.47	223.47	151	467.29878972593	70.516345550016	0.83088132791901	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	62.47	43.15	52.81	150.64120213828	0.0528	0.1728	4.41	4.5828	T	F	30.47	222.47	151	467.21223060142	70.381412071507	0.83088132791901	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	59.99	42.13	51.06	151.7409153176	0.065	0.195	4.48	4.675	T	F	27.99	215.99	151	467.57676765737	70.950526705576	0.76652280672911	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	59.91	41.24	50.575	151.52252797744	0.0681	0.1881	4.56	4.7481	T	F	27.91	212.91	151	467.50445680572	70.837457135921	0.76424323504473	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	59.91	42.4	51.155	151.36655559439	0.0681	0.1881	4.64	4.8281	T	F	27.91	218.91	151	467.45278778838	70.756718390523	0.76424323504473	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	56.31	41.94	49.125	151.83121934782	0.0283	0.1283	4.48	4.6083	T	F	24.31	214.31	151	467.60665676068	70.99728887113	0.65023298917625	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	56.48	40.97	48.725	154.05488052469	0.0126	0.2326	5.15	5.3826	T	F	24.48	213.48	151	468.34049217453	72.15013856682	0.6560563714337	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	56.5	40.97	48.735	153.04487071973	0.0126	0.2526	5.25	5.5026	T	F	24.5	213.5	151	468.00769027992	71.626176454729	0.65673908162767	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	54.52	42.13	48.325	152.70394151881	0.0153	0.3153	5.19	5.5053	T	F	22.52	210.52	151	467.89515999693	71.449435149105	0.58700898496672	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	54.73	42.45	48.59	152.67956279602	0.0128	0.3228	4.93	5.2528	T	F	22.73	208.73	151	467.88710959372	71.436799330664	0.59458024814633	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	55.11	42.45	48.78	152.0596416204	0.0124	0.3224	4.79	5.1124	T	F	23.11	215.11	151	467.682230065	71.115592295911	0.60818926251048	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	60.36	42.07	51.215	154.18122648053	0.0022	0.1322	4.82	4.9522	T	F	28.36	211.36	151	468.38206357609	72.215721023643	0.77690547543893	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	57.09	40.01	48.55	155.45143962999	0.0051	0.1251	4.85	4.9751	T	F	25.09	215.09	151	468.79925928658	72.875519753573	0.67664098782798	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	57.92	40.01	48.965	155.24618120286	0.0004	0.1204	4.79	4.9104	T	F	25.92	209.92	151	468.73193423988	72.768842798569	0.70379420717782	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	51.89	42.65	47.27	152.38317009318	0	0.07	4.65	4.72	T	F	19.89	216.89	151	467.78919416628	71.283200342393	0.49035660896362	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-05-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	43.18	41.36	42.27	153.72202029622	0	0.03	4.74	4.77	T	F	11.18	210.18	151	468.23090782946	71.977401116676	0.20258427424801	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	244	-41	43.14	41.29	42.215	157.37134616491	0	0.03	4.88	4.91	T	F	11.14	207.14	151	469.42729455894	73.874405271294	0.20153837024837	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L