MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 29, 2022

[ Saturday, May 28, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, May 30, 2022 ]

DAY 241 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/30/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 180

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 150 in
SWE DAY: 148
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-30 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022241-4434.9300429.0331.98002150.135854583330.149999999999980.839999999999985.236.07TF2.93004179.93004148465.54408478919 69.8948590160410.08902387740660316 1113124.5WETL
2022-05-30 00:00:01FORECAST2022241-4329.9329.9329.93152.0187909130.00490.69495.235.9249TF-2.07174.93149466.6751894945770.9433980560580.038569639907086161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2022241-4331.0924.4227.755151.743538044110.19180.88185.236.1118TF-0.91176.09149466.5834126016370.8010178208670.047475822045607161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2022241-4331.8524.1427.995152.084630082360.28420.97425.236.2042TF-0.15176.85149466.6971325803470.9774607689760.054152535614982161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 04:00:08FORECAST2022241-4334.3124.5129.41151.745525849030.33751.02755.236.2575TT2.31179.31149466.5840756206270.8020459078330.080919017813047161114126WETL
2022-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2022241-4434.5724.3529.46153.396947748030.45680.76685.235.9968TF2.57174.57148466.6358841879271.5805203441310.084247311487173161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2022241-4433.2626.2329.745153.60887050810.54731.13735.236.3673TT1.26177.26148466.7065225229371.690261783510.068478549116388161114126WETL
2022-05-28 16:00:01FORECAST2022241-4433.8726.8330.35152.97583057490.56921.15925.236.3892TT1.87177.87148466.4954040334971.3625218913980.075513325038472161114126WETL
2022-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2022241-4434.4526.3830.415152.675344495190.54891.13895.236.3689TT2.45178.45148466.3950732105671.2070284732820.082698668424993161114126WETL
2022-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2022241-4434.7925.9930.39152.837414428590.59121.26125.236.4912TT2.79178.79148466.4491970761571.290889243410.087142665857639161114126WETL
2022-05-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022241-4434.5126.0230.265152.786058540060.58281.33285.236.5628TT2.51179.51148466.4320489948871.2643143426910.083470299906635161114126WETL
2022-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022241-4433.6225.9529.785155.3593858650.58451.08455.236.3145TT1.62165.62148467.2885543578672.5976628267820.072566580872665161114126WETL
2022-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2022241-4433.2626.2429.75155.158306331260.57881.23885.236.4688TT1.26174.26148467.2218285664672.4933476013650.068478549116388161114126WETL
2022-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2022241-4433.0626.4329.745155.028519173960.53461.12465.236.3546TT1.06174.06148467.1787421800272.4260285897190.066285223305874161114126WETL
2022-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2022241-4432.7726.9629.865155.656995519260.5661.1865.236.416TT0.77171.77148467.3872499667872.7520950738380.063201715245999161114126WETL
2022-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022241-4433.426.0729.735155.363327935940.59771.26775.236.4977TT1.4172.4148467.2898621454672.5997080936470.070046780978175161114126WETL
2022-05-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022241-4434.3926.3130.35155.354759593540.60031.35035.236.5803TT2.39176.39148467.2870195690872.5952625863380.081932399331295161114126WETL
2022-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2022241-4434.3627.8431.1155.958771347820.59551.54554.876.4155TT2.36170.36148467.4872510428772.9087372934150.08155127010511161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2022241-443425.5829.79157.849900831730.67431.73435.367.0943TT2174148468.1121825042273.8914615864140.077081111646384161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022241-4433.9727.7130.84156.978684053060.63011.83015.367.1901TT1.97173.97148467.8246582480473.438499219350.076717144626867161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2022241-4434.1227.9631.04156.114761278260.5361.7665.367.126TT2.12178.12148467.5389122198772.9897256695040.078550065799226161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022241-4434.1227.7530.935156.095267334050.48041.58045.296.8704TT2.12177.12148467.5324572805672.9796039065520.078550065799226161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 04:00:07FORECAST2022241-4434.4329.1431.785155.687279855420.45931.44935.286.7293TT2.43177.43148467.3972889103472.7678125222480.082442650451737161114126WETL
2022-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022241-4433.8728.6531.26158.047963813860.54421.59425.176.7642TT1.87164.87148468.1774597349473.9944942146540.075513325038472161115127.5WETL
2022-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022241-4434.0628.0731.065158.714328963330.53941.62945.166.7894TT2.06176.06148468.3968381791874.3412898601530.077812966823569161115127.5WETL
2022-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022241-4434.0629.2231.64158.200969202860.56751.61755.116.7275TT2.06170.06148468.2278644890674.0741019699520.077812966823569161115127.5WETL
2022-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2022241-4434.9431.8433.39156.048351426510.54241.47245.126.5924TT2.94172.94148467.5169209234672.9552447741060.089158812657718161114126WETL
2022-05-25 08:00:04FORECAST2022241-4434.9429.632.27156.732677629550.64711.55715.126.6771TT2.94176.94148467.7433544502873.3106683864190.089158812657718161115127.5WETL
2022-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2022241-4434.8429.632.22160.143843096340.64691.59695.226.8169TT2.84173.84148468.8662070964875.0860363024360.087810909630013161115127.5WETL
2022-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022241-4436.7232.834.76159.512359988330.43321.36325.126.4832TT4.72163.72148468.6590750665374.7569150938080.11577476895196161114126WETL
2022-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022241-4436.923234.46160.436532836770.46521.22525.116.3352TT4.92179.92148468.9620992904775.2386532420160.11908443138973161114126WETL
2022-05-24 16:00:04FORECAST2022241-4436.932.0234.46160.333472262370.46821.23825.096.3282TT4.9186.9148468.9283423004875.1849093632730.11875049962768161114126WETL
2022-05-24 12:00:05FORECAST2022241-4434.8528.931.875163.340099735530.84741.82745.116.9374TT2.85186.85148469.9095260755576.7550688558560.087945014306223161115127.5WETL
2022-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022241-4435.3529.7732.56163.233450022640.79651.75655.357.1065TT3.35176.35148469.8748500049276.6992928451750.094845828281272161115127.5WETL
2022-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2022241-4435.3529.7732.56162.847634423630.79651.58655.276.8565TT3.35178.35148469.7493274968976.4975667549610.094845828281272161115127.5WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:04FORECAST2022241-4435.8629.8632.86162.741181380360.35561.13565.356.4856TT3.86162.86148469.7146720579776.4419206424030.10228608915833161114126WETL
2022-05-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022241-4435.7929.8632.825162.249047270240.35561.06565.336.3956TT3.79173.79148469.554337562576.1847439111240.1012405392823161114126WETL
2022-05-23 16:00:04FORECAST2022241-4434.4229.231.81163.503126284110.48251.26255.356.6125TT2.42173.42148469.9625143507576.8403403326860.082314864692338161114126WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022241-4435.9329.4432.685163.934263439390.35541.22545.236.4554TT3.93172.93148470.1025405194377.065913721040.1033394447181161114126WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022241-4435.9529.4832.715164.32902687620.35541.22545.246.4654TT3.95162.95148470.2306186981377.2725399780580.1036418401729161114126WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:10FORECAST2022241-4435.0128.0931.55166.537125258140.61991.44995.276.7199TT3.01158.01148470.9446571070978.4297693502970.090111434659792161114126WETL
2022-05-23 00:00:04FORECAST2022241-4431.3826.5728.975175.62262865541.30652.27655.127.3965TT-0.62143.38148473.8408813583883.2171811485470.049941475723279161115127.5WETL
2022-05-22 20:00:04FORECAST2022241-4429.6825.8427.76177.842515449741.21752.29755.167.4575TT-2.32149.68148474.5384218508884.3931066195120.036840192388155161115127.5WETL
2022-05-22 16:00:04FORECAST2022241-4428.9525.927.425177.895622424431.15162.25165.17.3516TT-3.05150.95148474.5550611835384.421267983910.03214909249813161115127.5WETL
2022-05-22 12:00:04FORECAST2022241-4431.925.7528.825165.955461802240.42870.92875.26.1287TF-0.1163.9148470.7569514606478.1246872762660.054616531266674161113124.5WETL
2022-05-22 08:00:03FORECAST2022241-4431.9330.2131.07164.404132812470.30340.80345.155.9534TF-0.07162.93148470.2549717453377.3118608305440.054896429031073161113124.5WETL
2022-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2022241-4433.232.232.7163.495553878730.14060.71065.135.8406TF1.2160.2148469.9600535890476.8363792624170.067814771116729161113124.5WETL