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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 28, 2022

[ Friday, May 27, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 29, 2022 ]

DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/29/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.169
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.40 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 147
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-29 04:00:07OBSERVATION2022240-4539.8899431.0135.44997150.6493050.400000000000091.06000000000014.946.0000000000001TF7.88994182.88994147465.2133335602 70.0840653775780.1693994838480516 1114126WETL
2022-05-29 00:00:01FORECAST2022240-4434.8434.8434.84151.984474666670.01830.67834.945.6183TF2.84177.84148466.1641045398470.8497065369440.076179342670581161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 12:00:02FORECAST2022240-4439.2233.9836.6151.678341333330.29520.95524.945.8952TF7.22182.22148466.0616296819270.6914549492640.1539891529588161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 08:00:01FORECAST2022240-4439.3431.7735.555151.798064588720.38061.04064.945.9806TF7.34182.34148466.1017152486270.7533382762220.15667920184367161114126WETL
2022-05-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022240-4439.532.0335.765151.670656800180.45651.11654.946.0565TF7.5182.5148466.0590563413470.6874831829610.16031363673951161114126WETL
2022-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022240-4534.8331.7333.28154.155438374850.49820.86824.945.8082TF2.83169.83147466.3897390592971.8965146782150.076044643788518161113124.5WETL
2022-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2022240-4536.8531.4434.145153.888650689030.49641.02644.945.9664TF4.85178.85147466.3005921497471.758368941420.10708115762129161114126WETL
2022-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2022240-4537.2831.0834.18153.789128564390.42570.95574.945.8957TF5.28179.28147466.2673214309471.7068450409190.11472481851388161113124.5WETL
2022-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2022240-4535.1731.9733.57154.363642010190.46040.99044.945.9304TF3.17177.17147466.4592681954872.0043514880640.080726622970398161114126WETL
2022-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022240-4537.1231.7934.455153.977401646180.45861.03864.945.9786TF5.12177.12147466.3302549226671.8043209619910.11183667152825161114126WETL
2022-05-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022240-4537.7831.9834.88153.941557064670.43221.12224.946.0622TF5.78179.78147466.3182755787271.78576143030.12408996423506161114126WETL
2022-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2022240-4537.4132.2334.82154.695663606150.49640.95644.945.8964TF5.41174.41147466.5700700177272.1763666001620.11711008910225161113124.5WETL
2022-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2022240-4536.1731.9634.065156.099610302590.5831.5634.946.503TT4.17178.17147467.0375617410372.9043813844450.095752436154927161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2022240-4536.1831.6733.925156.009890681290.59691.69694.946.6369TT4.18178.18147467.007736384672.8578259006790.095912405783033161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.8331.733.765155.346650228630.66171.73174.946.6717TT3.83181.83147466.787045413272.5138038750580.09042926781288161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022240-4536.3431.1633.75155.585114102260.62131.53134.946.4713TT4.34181.34147466.8664362530372.6374677549420.098498617053012161115127.5WETL
2022-05-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022240-4535.7831.7533.765155.357345562430.58331.41334.946.3533TT3.78180.78147466.7906071987372.5193496678680.089665291766914161114126WETL
2022-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.4930.2332.86156.893353290120.64511.45514.846.2951TT3.49169.49147467.3011286646373.3164410724510.085328327510477161114126WETL
2022-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.5831.7433.66157.292148727860.67051.47054.866.3305TT3.58179.58147467.4333505613973.5235960968640.086657185463265161114126WETL
2022-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.3230.9533.135157.419692557470.64321.38324.866.2432TT3.32174.32147467.4756098647473.5898667830210.082859867513415161114126WETL
2022-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2022240-4536.9130.7933.85155.802752722030.55971.26974.866.1297TT4.91175.91147466.9388518638972.7503584732590.10812516652373161114126WETL
2022-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022240-4534.6431.3332.985156.149942241760.55651.22654.886.1065TF2.64179.64147467.0542905347972.9305004907750.073519572495862161114126WETL
2022-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2022240-4536.1433.0534.595157.180283726840.45871.29874.956.2487TT4.14177.14147467.3962748785973.4654790982860.095273701197815161114126WETL
2022-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022240-4536.3132.2634.285158.088497413190.4261.2164.916.126TT4.31165.31147467.6969820840773.9375131423560.098009865764163161114126WETL
2022-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022240-4536.5132.3834.445158.545648885180.36081.03084.925.9508TF4.51180.51147467.8480814947374.1752776602690.10130183210719161114126WETL
2022-05-24 16:00:04FORECAST2022240-4536.5332.534.515158.315559264620.36071.03074.915.9407TF4.53187.53147467.772053345174.055594233690.10163539300123161114126WETL
2022-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2022240-4537.731.8234.76158.642350096190.56071.26074.916.1707TT5.7189.7147467.8800210642174.2255861046840.12255674430693161114126WETL
2022-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022240-4538.9431.8135.375158.889905096820.54541.31545.076.3854TT6.94178.94147467.9617505899474.3543981401770.14783156593438161114126WETL
2022-05-24 04:00:07FORECAST2022240-4538.9431.8135.375158.389563724930.54541.16544.976.1354TF6.94180.94147467.7965113694274.0940853478460.14783156593438161114126WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022240-4539.0731.2435.155160.8215534950.15871.22874.986.2087TT7.07165.07147468.5977164955475.3606127310220.15066970195905161114126WETL
2022-05-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022240-4539.0731.2435.155160.260103493150.16571.17574.946.1157TF7.07176.07147468.4131891621975.067946172690.15066970195905161114126WETL
2022-05-23 16:00:04FORECAST2022240-4540.2731.4635.865160.489597319390.20031.25034.966.2103TT8.27177.27147468.4886468834875.1875542870360.17856606712453161114126WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.8630.0532.955161.867334272350.57191.21194.976.1819TT3.86174.86147468.9407242111475.9061849598030.090889959695654161114126WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022240-4535.129.7132.405162.184547516370.57191.25194.946.1919TT3.1165.1147469.0445876421776.0717842117470.079745368737383161114126WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:09FORECAST2022240-4535.4330.4632.945162.213072649570.53221.22224.966.1822TT3.43161.43147469.0539233731876.0866781486980.084450912415305161114126WETL
2022-05-23 00:00:04FORECAST2022240-4535.1929.4832.335165.219469108780.68791.33794.836.1679TT3.19150.19147470.0340767306277.6587806204690.081008643486793161114126WETL
2022-05-22 20:00:04FORECAST2022240-4535.2727.8931.58167.077632229470.72331.41334.916.3233TT3.27158.27147470.6361479920478.6327732481080.082144139592363161114126WETL
2022-05-22 16:00:04FORECAST2022240-4535.2727.931.585167.256169563550.7321.4324.856.282TT3.27160.27147470.6938471343178.7264499088150.082144139592363161114126WETL
2022-05-22 12:00:04FORECAST2022240-4537.930.8134.355162.125701457910.15680.88684.895.7768TF5.9169.9147469.0253263145776.0410600302740.12641479528995161113124.5WETL
2022-05-22 08:00:03FORECAST2022240-4537.9430.8134.375161.745443402040.15680.84684.885.7268TF5.94168.94147468.9007918756475.8425664934940.12719641979587161113124.5WETL
2022-05-22 04:00:07FORECAST2022240-4536.1827.6231.9162.383603501290.0910.9214.865.781TF4.18165.18147469.1097207552576.1757268937230.095912405783033161113124.5WETL
2022-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.5427.2831.41172.194554343490.19941.69944.916.6094TT3.54141.54147472.2794916205581.3239565851710.0860646911213161115127.5WETL
2022-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2022240-4535.6127.2831.445172.22584227650.1851.6855.16.785TT3.61153.61147472.2894744552481.3404525363820.087103546222188161115127.5WETL
2022-05-21 16:00:04FORECAST2022240-4533.828.0730.935168.216486027280.22121.89125.16.9912TT1.8150.8147471.0037507553479.2305958577320.063115827211513161115127.5WETL
2022-05-21 12:00:04FORECAST2022240-4531.6929.3130.5165.231943212980.16331.30335.066.3633TT-0.31166.69147470.0381279990877.6653132734780.042005238735613161114126WETL
2022-05-21 08:00:04FORECAST2022240-4531.7129.3430.525166.688834861440.12851.52855.066.5885TT-0.29153.71147470.5104070940578.4288315486910.042174510302442161115127.5WETL
2022-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2022240-4532.0529.6130.83166.097608803780.04681.46685.056.5168TT0.049999999999997157.05147470.3189606222178.1188547344290.045137208688967161114126WETL