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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 24, 2022

[ Monday, May 23, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 25, 2022 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.400
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 139

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 158 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-25 04:00:06OBSERVATION2022236-4947.5732.8899240.22996157.934395416670.120.126.126.24TF15.57138.57143465.65102401884 73.5423129535670.4000064063725116 2112124WETL
2022-05-25 00:00:01FORECAST2022236-4835.2835.2835.28158.982069333330.01080.01086.126.1308TF3.28126.28144466.5027423083174.165571321850.092676341150738161111121.5WETL
2022-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2022236-4847.8837.1842.53159.3544960.07080.07086.126.1908TF15.88138.88144466.6269805770374.3591073098550.41047346515268162111122WETL
2022-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2022236-4842.4235.3238.87159.349740.08130.08136.126.2013TF10.42133.42144466.6253947578774.3566353320640.24135133713535161111121.5WETL
2022-05-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022236-4843.5834.839.19159.3031970.07570.07576.126.1957TF11.58134.58144466.6098746590774.3324447849590.27395261691115162111122WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2022236-4943.3835.539.44161.098218666670.08660.08666.126.2066TF11.38123.38143466.7095326338975.1860743420720.26818036862714162111122WETL
2022-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2022236-4943.4435.5939.515161.106309333330.07040.11046.126.2304TF11.44134.44143466.7122286087875.1902846718950.26990560590852162112124WETL
2022-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2022236-4943.4736.0639.765161.066402666670.06540.10546.126.2254TF11.47134.47143466.6989303574975.1695178410620.27077030042306162112124WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2022236-4943.5936.5240.055160.737852043630.07160.11166.126.2316TF11.59134.59143466.589394928574.9985771271430.27424283139518162112124WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2022236-4944.5136.3140.41160.761632530430.07450.13456.126.2545TF12.51127.51143466.5973261694575.0109478893320.30157179822753162112124WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:08FORECAST2022236-4944.5236.3140.415160.623685064920.07390.14396.126.2639TF12.52125.52143466.5513114159374.9391909114990.30187546691627162112124WETL
2022-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2022236-4944.0535.5539.8161.695724534150.02240.09246.126.2124TF12.05115.05143466.9084847923375.4971057396390.28775419765763162112124WETL
2022-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2022236-4944.1435.439.77162.831172436120.01360.15366.126.2736TF12.14125.14143467.285725007876.0886824656810.2904340178999162112124WETL
2022-05-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022236-4944.7834.6639.72162.65364586030.00440.10446.126.2244TF12.78124.78143467.2268154644475.9961449789860.30981851296763162112124WETL
2022-05-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022236-4946.6534.9740.81161.80898903010.00670.10676.126.2267TF14.65126.65143466.9461645593775.5560868188320.36938988567753162112124WETL
2022-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2022236-4946.2835.1940.735161.84780582390.00760.09766.126.2176TF14.28125.28143466.9590752712975.5763017422170.35729455498502162112124WETL
2022-05-22 04:00:06FORECAST2022236-4946.4634.9740.715162.121733587030.00780.09786.126.2178TF14.46125.46143467.0501492047875.7189798611610.36316174926506162112124WETL
2022-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022236-4946.3533.740.025165.698687936470.00780.09786.126.2178TF14.35114.35143468.2335965947677.5856926035280.35957232604915162112124WETL
2022-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022236-4946.6533.5140.08165.640187796030.01010.09016.336.4201TF14.65124.65143468.2143279860977.5551092164080.36938988567753162112124WETL
2022-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2022236-4947.5233.9840.75165.477406666670.01240.10246.336.4324TF15.52124.52143468.1606965339377.4700179656950.39832466586856162112124WETL
2022-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022236-4947.7334.3541.04165.453524258010.00930.09936.336.4293TF15.73124.73143468.1528261380777.4575349758910.40540030160348162112124WETL
2022-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2022236-4945.0634.2939.675165.29150355940.010.116.326.43TF13.06119.06143468.0994199611577.3728569406590.31847280999494162112124WETL
2022-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2022236-4948.6734.5241.595164.931307730560.00940.08946.336.4194TF16.67121.67143467.9806114067477.1846542318580.43742048913888162111122WETL
2022-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022236-4948.6435.341.97165.996536789340.02090.11096.366.4709TF16.64114.64143468.3316568103977.741433099340.43639103248099162112124WETL
2022-05-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022236-4949.0135.3242.165165.840141150980.01070.11076.386.4907TF17.01125.01143468.2801762195677.6596505224570.44911562658603162112124WETL
2022-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2022236-4948.3735.2941.83166.269109207430.01280.09286.56.5928TF16.37121.37143468.4213303265977.8839973271630.42714612031973162112124WETL
2022-05-20 12:00:04FORECAST2022236-4948.9735.1942.08165.276816328860.0030.0436.526.563TF16.97126.97143468.0945775867777.3651815243420.44773722937496162111122WETL
2022-05-20 08:00:04FORECAST2022236-4946.2735.5640.915165.59205836020.00370.03376.456.4837TF14.27117.27143468.1984731034977.5299488823080.35696957137325162111122WETL
2022-05-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022236-4947.7535.9241.835165.648663433010.0030.0136.376.383TF15.75128.75143468.2171198444877.5595400986940.40607582599168162111122WETL
2022-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022236-4948.1235.9342.025159.253449572520.00040.01045.765.7704TF16.12120.12143466.0933692347974.2269768735190.41862142816491162111122WETL
2022-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022236-4948.1232.1940.155159.445204161420.00050.01055.825.8305TF16.12122.12143466.1575509002674.3265858746810.41862142816491162111122WETL
2022-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022236-4948.2335.3941.81159.371000980620.00050.00055.95.9005TF16.23124.23143466.1327182598874.2880378988950.42236783466988162111122WETL
2022-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022236-4946.937.6442.27159.470338497340.34870.36875.986.3487TF14.9124.9143466.1659612295874.3396436332170.37763704889001162112124WETL
2022-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022236-4946.5437.6542.095160.56693616540.34640.36646.076.4364TF14.54115.54143466.5323771617874.9096744228270.36577982597507162112124WETL
2022-05-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022236-4947.437.7142.555161.186530268940.34840.36846.126.4884TF15.4121.4143466.7389568602375.2320329976420.39429623970947162112124WETL
2022-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022236-4948.8936.8442.865161.888648861890.2080.2185.065.278TF16.89112.89143466.9726585506175.5975727482040.44498234377235162112124WETL
2022-05-18 20:00:04FORECAST2022236-4945.1335.8440.485161.440375500890.21190.21195.225.4319TF13.13119.13143466.8234979004375.3641607936850.32065218509813162112124WETL
2022-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022236-4944.9535.7340.34160.792541172690.21190.21195.235.4419TF12.95119.95143466.6076340687575.027027212490.31506074593209162112124WETL
2022-05-18 12:00:04FORECAST2022236-4941.9837.4739.725161.705952322080.59520.59525.175.7652TF9.98110.98143466.9118877218675.5024314545660.22955952217065161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2022236-494237.4739.735162.128901366450.59520.60525.536.1352TF10106143467.0525314563875.7227138054430.23008842691544161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022236-4941.5936.9739.28163.244291009550.59910.60915.816.4191TT9.59110.59143467.4227094495976.3040888058610.21938279362015161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 00:00:04FORECAST2022236-4943.7435.839.77165.48180113330.30740.30745.86.1074TF11.74108.74143468.1621446688577.4723149222290.27861415640008162112124WETL
2022-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022236-4943.7435.4239.58165.983985741740.15970.16975.725.8897TF11.74119.74143468.327526149777.7348694228940.27861415640008162112124WETL
2022-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2022236-4943.3734.5238.945165.763972741830.0370.0475.755.797TF11.37117.37143468.2550965367277.6198250585370.26789336884728162111122WETL
2022-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022236-4941.9237.8339.875165.889320813360.02781.10785.716.8178TT9.92100.92143468.2963668425977.6853662348820.22797689496627161114126WETL
2022-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022236-4940.4138.2439.325167.310740022120.09011.16015.937.0901TT8.41100.41143468.7634447430778.4291588352790.19021481433488161114126WETL
2022-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2022236-4940.4539.2939.87167.270525119390.05281.12285.957.0728TT8.45102.45143468.7502533057778.4081010203050.19116287495211161114126WETL