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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 23, 2022

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DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.396
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 160 in
SWE DAY: 142
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-24 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022235-5047.3300636.1700641.75006160.098105007.617.61TT15.33006125.33006142465.87510473273 74.5857214343870.3959182998734416 2111122WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:01FORECAST2022235-4936.0236.0236.02161.9780240.0010.0017.617.611TT4.02114.02143467.0023773662475.6441222890860.10646589633164161111121.5WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:01FORECAST2022235-4947.2734.340.785161.670957376960.04470.04477.617.6547TT15.27125.27143466.9002440430175.4842094539690.39391219180071162111122WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2022235-4939.0534.5736.81161.673308530430.0580.0587.617.668TT7.05117.05143466.9010263620275.4854336881990.16295312817795161111121.5WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:07FORECAST2022235-4936.9834.5935.785161.531206398260.06630.06637.617.6763TT4.98114.98143466.853735134975.4114470478720.122588428972161111121.5WETL
2022-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2022235-5038.1734.3136.24162.598708534150.07480.07487.617.6848TT6.17105.17142466.7110077657775.8866071213860.14484608871491161111121.5WETL
2022-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2022235-5038.7533.5136.13163.743067102780.11660.13667.617.7466TT6.75114.75142467.0917773201576.4830402368920.15662209327805161112123WETL
2022-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2022235-5038.1734.3236.245163.57401386030.08310.10317.617.7131TT6.17114.17142467.0355968315576.3948871893760.14484608871491161112123WETL
2022-05-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022235-5038.1934.5836.385162.795995696760.0770.0977.617.707TT6.19114.19142466.7767313333275.9893827454880.14524198873789161112123WETL
2022-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2022235-5037.6234.0235.82162.80982982390.07380.09387.617.7038TT5.62112.62142466.7813387513375.9965903270790.13424246931342161112123WETL
2022-05-22 04:00:06FORECAST2022235-5037.6334.0335.83163.08414025370.07310.09317.617.7031TT5.63112.63142466.8726636618576.1395269612470.13443038908036161112123WETL
2022-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2022235-5039.4733.636.535166.61477262580.07110.09117.617.7011TT7.47102.47142468.0424384280277.982784457910.17209143555066161112123WETL
2022-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022235-5038.8133.4736.14166.574164731120.05990.28997.617.8999TT6.81111.81142468.029043702177.9615470245810.15787520369364161112123WETL
2022-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2022235-5039.1733.8136.49166.4954640.05720.29727.617.9072TT7.17111.17142468.0030799215177.920389944960.16553137099475161112123WETL
2022-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022235-5038.1733.9436.055166.457094924680.06080.30087.617.9108TT6.17111.17142467.9904198818477.9003257461110.14484608871491161112123WETL
2022-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2022235-5039.1634.0136.585166.249646226060.05110.30117.617.9111TT7.16108.16142467.9219499280877.7918586369530.16531551760144161112123WETL
2022-05-21 04:00:06FORECAST2022235-5039.5434.2836.91166.004469063890.03730.28737.617.8973TT7.54106.54142467.8409808893377.6636936388620.17364561692912161112123WETL
2022-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022235-5040.6634.0337.345167.017710122680.04280.33287.617.9428TT8.6699.66142468.1752746213478.1935623033110.19971362888088161112123WETL
2022-05-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022235-5042.7636.0939.425166.905430484310.04750.33757.637.9675TT10.76109.76142468.1382731144278.1348200003450.25449412062948162112124WETL
2022-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2022235-5041.6135.6838.645167.331282540770.03220.44227.638.0722TT9.61106.61142468.2785558488778.3576513365290.22356711058042161112123WETL
2022-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022235-5045.0635.8240.44166.382121662190.00060.42067.638.0506TT13.06112.06142467.9656785737277.8611224661820.32244808610742162112124WETL
2022-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022235-5041.336.0738.685166.622743693530.00350.33357.647.9735TT9.3105.3142468.0450675640977.9869533297530.21561086086978161112123WETL
2022-05-20 04:00:06FORECAST2022235-504736.3341.665166.693343433010.00030.23037.647.8703TT15115142468.0683514963378.0238784661030.38492916232712162112124WETL
2022-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022235-5047.4836.1341.805160.403909572520.00030.28036.987.2603TT15.48106.48142465.9776144100274.7446311246450.40093849067134162112124WETL
2022-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022235-5043.6735.1139.39160.493601494760.00070.27077.057.3207TT11.67107.67142466.0076652126174.7912485141360.28046572167611162112124WETL
2022-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022235-5043.5935.6539.62160.522280980620.00070.33077.067.3907TT11.59109.59142466.0172726777374.8061555865970.27813208836002162112124WETL
2022-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022235-5047.2337.3142.27160.6572611640.00690.41697.077.4869TT15.23112.23142466.0624808764674.8763217089130.39257767854878162112124WETL
2022-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022235-5043.5336.4439.985161.743909498730.00860.41867.167.5786TT11.53102.53142466.4258621561975.4415424364590.27638809381039162112124WETL
2022-05-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022235-5044.736.9740.835162.378919602270.01020.30027.337.6302TT12.7107.7142466.6377492421475.7721335675740.3113255723046162112124WETL
2022-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022235-5048.5536.9942.77163.2531288618900.216.356.56TF16.5597.55142466.9288925964776.2276026723930.43719173241678162112124WETL
2022-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2022235-5049.4334.9642.195162.481064834230.00480.16486.556.7148TT17.43108.43142466.671800669875.8253311009340.46742250978211162112124WETL
2022-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022235-5049.6134.6642.135161.799993172690.00480.25486.476.7248TT17.61108.61142466.4445896460875.4707314201730.47363512121238162112124WETL
2022-05-18 12:00:04FORECAST2022235-5044.7534.7239.735162.661525655420.00260.17266.496.6626TT12.75102.75142466.7319380196375.9193291103830.31286041609166162112124WETL
2022-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2022235-5044.7734.7239.745163.084802699790.00260.21266.827.0326TT12.7797.77142466.8728841299776.1398721942160.31347526432489162112124WETL
2022-05-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022235-5045.1834.6739.925164.189259009550.00220.23227.087.3122TT13.18103.18142467.2399418933676.7157798391350.32619182044374162112124WETL
2022-05-18 00:00:04FORECAST2022235-5050.0735.1442.605166.4431144666300.187.117.29TT18.0799.07142467.9858066635377.8930151872580.48953739687446162112124WETL
2022-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022235-505035.4942.745166.725921741740.00510.08517.137.2151TT18110142468.0790944784878.0409184749610.48711578396941162111122WETL
2022-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2022235-505035.4942.745166.300362075170.00510.08517.167.2451TT18108142467.9386923955177.8183739743530.48711578396941162111122WETL
2022-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022235-5040.0236.9338.475166.397720813361.07671.14677.138.2767TT8.0293.02142467.9708267091477.8692789715450.18454164483968161114126WETL
2022-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022235-5041.437.9839.69167.646174688781.06661.18667.38.4866TT9.494.4142468.3821890075478.5224822794720.21815931965281161114126WETL
2022-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2022235-5041.4237.9839.7167.486513119391.06661.18667.328.5066TT9.4296.42142468.3296536525678.4389006806790.2186710827629161114126WETL
2022-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2022235-5038.130.234.15169.924940326180.06990.53997.137.6699TT6.184.1142469.1296811265979.7168330706750.14346614913103161113124.5WETL
2022-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2022235-5038.132.3635.23170.28980737350.06990.53997.077.6099TT6.194.1142469.2489653209279.9083159147110.14346614913103161113124.5WETL
2022-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2022235-5038.0635.3236.69170.387504200380.0710.5217.097.611TT6.0697.06142469.2808861067579.959598952670.14268159874262161113124.5WETL
2022-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2022235-5039.0437.2338.135171.174072899340.56480.71487.067.7748TT7.0493.04142469.5375957167580.3726626381980.16273945641467161113124.5WETL
2022-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2022235-5038.9437.6138.275171.369767880820.52430.74437.037.7743TT6.9485.94142469.6013843528380.4754802330570.1606127411578161113124.5WETL
2022-05-16 04:00:08FORECAST2022235-5038.9538.1138.53172.053418189020.35580.57587.077.6458TT6.9584.95142469.8239779589980.8348213550070.16082459424152161113124.5WETL