Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 22, 2022

[ Saturday, May 21, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, May 23, 2022 ]

DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/23/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.23°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.469 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 119 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.77 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.77 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 162 in SWE DAY: 141 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.98 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-23 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2022	234	-51	49.85996	32.59994	41.22995	161.89272083333	0	0	8.77	8.77	T	T	17.85996	118.85996	141	465.97518445678	75.437990452522	0.46870136943786	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-50	38.52	38.52	38.52	162.96435733333	0	0	8.77	8.77	T	T	6.52	107.52	142	466.83279271085	76.077106046248	0.14292099045816	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2022-05-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-50	47.82	37.16	42.49	163.23452366156	0.0219	0.0219	8.77	8.7919	T	T	15.82	116.82	142	466.92270312125	76.217905030764	0.39883502836564	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	234	-50	47.27	35.45	41.36	163.121944	0.0229	0.0229	8.77	8.7929	T	T	15.27	116.27	142	466.88524450124	76.159228707958	0.38044628466298	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-22 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	234	-50	46.63	33.44	40.035	163.38492771451	0.0246	0.0246	8.77	8.7946	T	T	14.63	115.63	142	466.97273033618	76.296305790624	0.3593861592387	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.64	32.18	39.91	167.0711672126	0.0204	0.0204	8.77	8.7904	T	T	15.64	103.64	141	467.6990628797	78.13902833955	0.39278994266521	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-05-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.61	32.41	40.01	167.055524	0.0174	0.2274	8.77	8.9974	T	T	15.61	113.61	141	467.69388940413	78.130847766005	0.39178489407604	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.47	31.14	39.305	167.07985066667	0.0281	0.2381	8.77	9.0081	T	T	15.47	113.47	141	467.70193455642	78.143569382198	0.38710430917392	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.71	32.57	40.14	166.94066539528	0.0269	0.2369	8.77	9.0069	T	T	15.71	113.71	141	467.65589742033	78.070786691374	0.39513782606378	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	48.01	32.65	40.33	166.90007022606	0.0458	0.2458	8.77	9.0158	T	T	16.01	110.01	141	467.64246703321	78.049560588532	0.40524235127669	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	48.61	32.91	40.76	166.68643573056	0.0361	0.2461	8.77	9.0161	T	T	16.61	107.61	141	467.57176599669	77.93787112223	0.42563545869963	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	48.01	32.85	40.43	167.75002478934	0.0467	0.2867	8.77	9.0567	T	T	16.01	100.01	141	467.92337468126	78.494157702294	0.40524235127669	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.72	32.83	40.275	167.82219048431	0.0522	0.3122	8.77	9.0822	T	T	15.72	107.72	141	467.94719732572	78.531923686198	0.3954735510883	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.83	32.81	40.32	168.21294654077	0.0457	0.4257	8.77	9.1957	T	T	15.83	105.83	141	468.07611414438	78.736462365579	0.39917159356281	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.28	33.22	40.25	167.44298299552	0.0358	0.4358	8.77	9.2058	T	T	15.28	108.28	141	467.8219681729	78.333505861707	0.38077836467973	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.18	32.76	39.97	167.59017969353	0.032	0.362	8.77	9.132	T	T	15.18	105.18	141	467.87059260669	78.410516688273	0.37746155419545	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	46.53	32.87	39.7	167.86649009968	0.0095	0.2595	8.77	9.0295	T	T	14.53	108.53	141	467.96181892539	78.555108043667	0.35613189632374	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	45.55	32.95	39.25	161.55677490586	0.0132	0.3132	8.11	8.4232	T	T	13.55	99.55	141	465.86256461874	75.263253489175	0.32482481705665	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.37	32.86	40.115	161.50422416142	0.0099	0.3099	8.17	8.4799	T	T	15.37	105.37	141	465.84493923203	75.235925490196	0.38377100930022	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	46.98	32.52	39.75	161.56761698062	0.0023	0.3823	8.17	8.5523	T	T	14.98	106.98	141	465.86620073043	75.268891883831	0.37085518908965	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.39	32.53	39.96	161.82505049734	0.007	0.467	8.17	8.637	T	T	15.39	106.39	141	465.95250692055	75.402787961779	0.38443699064001	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	43.27	30.12	36.695	162.77557883206	0.0149	0.4749	8.26	8.7349	T	T	11.27	100.27	141	466.27068903618	75.897481300289	0.25687159414441	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	46.65	32.08	39.365	163.44218626894	0.0073	0.3473	8.43	8.7773	T	T	14.65	103.65	141	466.49337295778	76.244696756189	0.3600382459154	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	46.47	31.85	39.16	164.49624886189	0.0052	0.2552	7.46	7.7152	T	T	14.47	90.47	141	466.8447198715	76.794205219843	0.35418433655938	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.89	30.78	39.335	163.59779550089	0.0026	0.1926	7.68	7.8726	T	T	15.89	99.89	141	466.54530082906	76.325782716935	0.40119255031902	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	48.19	31.8	39.995	162.90682917269	0.0026	0.2926	7.59	7.8826	T	T	16.19	100.19	141	466.31456375781	75.96582697883	0.41133598927519	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	47.26	31.76	39.51	163.59971498875	0.0038	0.2238	7.6	7.8238	T	T	15.26	99.26	141	466.54594124723	76.326783017205	0.3801142926971	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	43.44	32.45	37.945	164.02403069979	0.006	0.316	7.87	8.186	T	T	11.44	94.44	141	466.68743338684	76.547953901048	0.2616721679172	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	44.15	32.45	38.3	165.13996700955	0.006	0.346	8.12	8.466	T	T	12.15	99.15	141	467.05882594926	77.13007910878	0.28220665869447	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	45.96	31.9	38.93	167.70339979997	0.0043	0.2843	8.17	8.4543	T	T	13.96	89.96	141	467.90798096647	78.469759201615	0.33778823839149	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	50.81	29.49	40.15	167.9623724084	0.0021	0.1621	8.21	8.3721	T	T	18.81	100.81	141	467.99346035513	78.605291872865	0.50170859709562	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	50.8	29.5	40.15	167.53692207517	0	0.19	8.21	8.4	T	T	18.8	98.8	141	467.85300177327	78.382651900721	0.50136083106636	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-17 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	45.84	34.55	40.195	167.25041148003	0.0025	0.1425	8.22	8.3625	T	T	13.84	93.84	141	467.75832732754	78.232772718741	0.33397324855631	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	45.65	34.46	40.055	168.58518402212	0.0025	0.2125	8.37	8.5825	T	T	13.65	93.65	141	468.19880243876	78.931381268073	0.32796789213667	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-17 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	45.67	34.46	40.065	168.42628778606	0.0025	0.1825	8.42	8.6025	T	T	13.67	95.67	141	468.14644493227	78.848167860183	0.32859797998378	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	40.21	34.77	37.49	170.37287899285	0.3963	0.5263	8.23	8.7563	T	T	8.21	87.21	141	468.78640744042	79.868489868338	0.17882379115494	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	40.21	34.77	37.49	170.73889404016	0.3963	0.5063	8.19	8.6963	T	T	8.21	97.21	141	468.9063857561	80.060557712366	0.17882379115494	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	40.51	34.84	37.675	170.80012820038	0.3998	0.4798	8.22	8.6998	T	T	8.51	99.51	141	468.92644718766	80.092697296199	0.18574358703635	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	39.15	32.11	35.63	171.567071566	0.1548	0.1748	8.2	8.3748	T	T	7.15	95.15	141	469.17744777229	80.495400759103	0.15569216787288	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	39.39	32.23	35.81	171.64446788082	0.1413	0.2613	8.15	8.4113	T	T	7.39	88.39	141	469.20275041911	80.536056423906	0.16074898548744	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	39.4	32.23	35.815	172.19866752235	0.1413	0.2613	8.19	8.4513	T	T	7.4	87.4	141	469.38378585315	80.82726248051	0.16096198200986	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-16 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	41.72	34.52	38.12	174.94857966033	0.5684	0.6684	7.32	7.9884	T	T	9.72	85.72	141	470.27831524718	82.274523297548	0.21529884956964	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	41.5	33.84	37.67	176.90108941462	0.6362	0.7562	8.07	8.8262	T	T	9.5	92.5	141	470.90967214961	83.304434019148	0.20973137860987	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	37.65	33.84	35.745	175.30774787674	0.5699	0.6899	7.85	8.5399	T	T	5.65	91.65	141	470.39468979393	82.463833680951	0.12647606331523	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	44.7	35.51	40.105	174.68575169656	0.2222	0.2322	7.87	8.1022	T	T	12.7	100.7	141	470.19308873171	82.136033147624	0.29862831885687	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	37.3	36.07	36.685	175.12260566209	0.06	0.06	7.8	7.86	T	T	5.3	85.3	141	470.3347148897	82.366240804821	0.12024627861515	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2022-05-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	234	-51	37.31	36.1	36.705	175.10726923532	0.0285	0.0285	7.78	7.8085	T	T	5.31	84.31	141	470.32974554795	82.358157383043	0.12042122669682	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L