MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 20, 2022

[ Thursday, May 19, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 21, 2022 ]

DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/21/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.211
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 113

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 168 in
SWE DAY: 139
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.30 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-21 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022232-5340.6700623.3400232.00504167.6981554166701.887.129TT8.67006112.67006139466.91453311276 78.3007059402440.2112609784613916 1115127.5WETL
2022-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2022232-5230.0730.0730.07169.003616364390.0011.8817.129.001TT-1.93102.07140467.8433003598379.0672096526610.027850622096325161115127.5WETL
2022-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2022232-5238.2929.3633.825168.823814377740.02261.90267.129.0226TT6.29110.29140467.7838902841178.9730606622220.14659198251803161115127.5WETL
2022-05-20 08:00:01FORECAST2022232-5234.7826.2830.53168.969201026860.02841.90847.129.0284TT2.78106.78140467.8319309620679.0491875895140.077965223890457161115127.5WETL
2022-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2022232-5238.6125.0431.825169.270712766350.02741.90747.129.0274TT6.61110.61140467.93150413579.207099230760.15441951860287161115127.5WETL
2022-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2022232-5338.0126.2132.11162.818426905860.03061.25067.128.3706TT6.01104.01139465.280929433375.7563089996250.1399644913855161114126WETL
2022-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022232-5339.3324.1431.735162.776098828090.03741.31747.128.4374TT7.33110.33139465.2666703505575.7342935143990.173021115882161114126WETL
2022-05-19 16:00:01FORECAST2022232-5337.9325.0531.49162.817624980620.05371.33377.128.4537TT5.93108.93139465.2806593025675.755891897060.13810881026317161114126WETL
2022-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022232-5337.4326.5431.985163.050403830670.05731.33737.128.4573TT5.43108.43139465.3590484093375.8769807693980.12689037614962161114126WETL
2022-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2022232-5337.9726.5232.245163.5135147560.05671.42677.128.5467TT5.97105.97139465.514864901176.1179717311450.1390345493263161114126WETL
2022-05-19 04:00:06FORECAST2022232-5337.7926.3532.07164.455653065890.06261.60267.128.7226TT5.79106.79139465.831287917976.6085886730650.1349017795184161115127.5WETL
2022-05-19 00:00:01FORECAST2022232-5337.3426.431.87165.662070195230.05110.62117.127.7411TT5.3494.34139466.2353665822177.2375160262380.12494021142351161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2022232-5338.1426.8332.485164.849607500890.03160.82167.127.9416TT6.14101.14139465.9633756197976.8138795807140.14301586217242161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2022232-5337.8126.7432.275164.198438506020.04250.74257.127.8625TT5.81101.81139465.7449759371376.4745977909010.13535678169637161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022232-5337.6526.7232.185164.788878988750.05290.76297.127.8829TT5.65101.65139465.9430227702876.7822283949450.13174606309368161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022232-5338.2226.8332.525164.991815355950.11221.09227.128.2122TT6.22103.22139466.0110235717376.8880047549860.14491574540573161114126WETL
2022-05-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022232-5338.4326.6732.55166.261642579870.1191.3497.128.469TT6.43103.43139466.435727871777.5503702738870.14998324629321161114126WETL
2022-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2022232-5337.827.1732.485168.977843799970.09981.37987.128.4998TT5.890.8139467.3395981950578.9700376253420.13512914967299161114126WETL
2022-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2022232-5338.127.1332.615169.334451075070.07581.39587.128.5158TT6.196.1139467.4578039769879.1567106371990.14207224217699161114126WETL
2022-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2022232-5337.1727.0832.125168.924362075170.10731.42737.128.5473TT5.1794.17139467.3218611978378.9420472866230.12131374368067161114126WETL
2022-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022232-5337.8226.8732.345168.716516813360.07351.40357.128.5235TT5.8296.82139467.252907277678.8332829867930.13558467564083161114126WETL
2022-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2022232-5339.8126.5933.2170.049102688780.08531.56537.128.6853TT7.8196.81139467.694369846879.5310079250440.18618136423864161115127.5WETL
2022-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2022232-5339.4726.532.985169.889933119390.06181.58187.138.7118TT7.4799.47139467.6417182780779.44762024210.17679700014433161115127.5WETL
2022-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022232-5341.3826.8434.11171.755070992850.06211.47217.058.5221TT9.3891.38139468.2573509846380.4255745612870.23337715056876161114126WETL
2022-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2022232-5341.2625.5833.42172.090308706830.03831.37837.088.4583TT9.26101.26139468.3676952061480.601541256330.22955121466808161114126WETL
2022-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2022232-5341.2627.0734.165172.17478290390.03061.40067.088.4806TT9.26102.26139468.3954852537680.645890986730.22955121466808161114126WETL
2022-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2022232-5340.9526.5233.735172.6348755660.02421.37427.088.4542TT8.95101.95139468.5467404109280.8875082276960.21983174272536161114126WETL
2022-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022232-5337.3426.2931.815172.757043880820.03591.30597.118.4159TT5.3494.34139468.5868734729480.9516830625420.12494021142351161114126WETL
2022-05-16 04:00:07FORECAST2022232-5337.3326.231.765173.312774189020.03591.29597.168.4559TT5.3393.33139468.7692772942481.2437039024460.12472482207582161114126WETL
2022-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2022232-5341.8127.6534.73176.366359660330.04691.15696.447.5969TT9.8191.81139469.7669549602182.8510877350510.24737256567148161114126WETL
2022-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022232-5342.2624.5833.42177.998522747950.01041.39046.928.3104TT10.2699.26139470.2970558100683.7121811869030.26248536651498162114128WETL
2022-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022232-5342.2824.5833.43176.21144254340.01041.17046.928.0904TT10.28102.28139469.7165260343582.769426638990.26316783588732162114128WETL
2022-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2022232-5341.6727.2934.48175.791275696560.01151.16156.958.1115TT9.6799.67139469.57965255782.548006164140.24276733678561161114126WETL
2022-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022232-5340.9526.1333.54176.133064328760.00451.07456.968.0345TT8.9589.95139469.6910046427682.7281159353820.21983174272536161114126WETL
2022-05-15 04:00:07FORECAST2022232-5340.9626.2933.625176.045349235320.00451.014578.0145TT8.9688.96139469.6624369659282.6818877383740.22014154758241161114126WETL
2022-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022232-5342.0327.0834.555177.089262818670.00251.07256.057.1225TT10.0391.03139470.0020136585183.2323101220760.2547025224406162114128WETL
2022-05-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022232-5341.2326.7133.97178.146085887350.00061.17066.197.3606TT9.2392.23139470.3448737554183.7900982767050.2286002415902161114126WETL
2022-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022232-5341.2826.5733.925177.304132779490.00061.15066.227.3706TT9.2891.28139470.0717974595483.3456723926610.23018642400146161114126WETL
2022-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022232-5339.5425.7832.66181.716299936610.03581.98586.168.1458TT7.5484.54139471.4963585580385.6785737107470.17870428071069161115127.5WETL
2022-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022232-5339.3825.5532.465182.649107434180.02722.31726.378.6872TT7.3885.38139471.7954961118686.1730262562970.1743637213377161115127.5WETL
2022-05-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022232-5339.3825.5632.47182.404547316230.02722.31726.528.8372TT7.3884.38139471.7171378408286.0433509891610.1743637213377161115127.5WETL
2022-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2022232-5338.926.8332.865174.858904908990.05211.96216.588.5421TT6.978.9139469.2754013878282.0569827874030.16174703195564161115127.5WETL
2022-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2022232-5339.3426.1432.74174.902266988340.22482.40486.779.1748TT7.3487.34139469.2895672800282.0798091912510.17328911002498161115127.5WETL
2022-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022232-5338.2926.132.195175.292658268080.21782.39786.979.3678TT6.2986.29139469.4170333864882.2853596186310.14659198251803161115127.5WETL
2022-05-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022232-5331.0428.2229.63175.637943054490.09261.33267.228.5526TT-0.9675.04139469.5296665510682.467224836090.035037586737077161114126WETL
2022-05-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022232-5331.0528.4629.755175.758123446590.08591.32597.248.5659TT-0.9571.05139469.5688466671382.5305393191960.035118919845007161114126WETL
2022-05-13 04:00:08FORECAST2022232-5331.452930.225178.920452237010.10161.53167.258.7816TT-0.5571.45139470.5955141531384.1991622129860.038501000309874161115127.5WETL