Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 11, 2022

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DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.01°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.55°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.28°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.141 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 108 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.41 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.37 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.78 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 167 in SWE DAY: 130 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.17 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 77.26 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-12 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	223	-62	38.01002	22.55	30.28001	167.15845833333	0.080000000000041	0.41000000000004	6.37	6.78	T	T	6.01002	108.01002	130	462.17141300484	77.255860883627	0.14069494717458	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-12 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	223	-61	27.7	27.7	27.7	170.02265545926	0.0054	0.3354	6.37	6.7054	T	T	-4.3	97.7	131	463.66632196075	78.833779306793	0.019218783746321	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	223	-61	37.06	25.99	31.525	170.04184997981	0.0361	0.3661	6.37	6.7361	T	T	5.06	107.06	131	463.67286624099	78.843791961062	0.12130090137501	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-11 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	223	-61	34.95	23.67	29.31	170.07147375384	0.0324	0.3624	6.37	6.7324	T	T	2.95	104.95	131	463.68296569929	78.859245331029	0.085123202568429	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-11 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	223	-61	36.15	24.66	30.405	170.10689720325	0.042	0.372	6.37	6.742	T	T	4.15	106.15	131	463.69504140905	78.877724742628	0.10455871851896	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	37.91	24.86	31.385	172.03304283607	0.0392	0.3192	6.37	6.6892	T	T	5.91	98.91	130	463.84156818721	79.796076369098	0.13855953124617	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	36.12	23.22	29.67	172.18341342728	0.0657	0.3757	6.37	6.7457	T	T	4.12	103.12	130	463.89276086223	79.874639029462	0.10403671765975	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	36.52	24.35	30.435	172.29950169042	0.0916	0.4016	6.37	6.7716	T	T	4.52	103.52	130	463.93226897299	79.935298762155	0.11115275759096	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.91	23.67	29.79	172.38374154729	0.0876	0.3976	6.37	6.7676	T	T	3.91	102.91	130	463.96093087961	79.97932119679	0.10043538066049	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.72	25.32	30.52	172.4420893211	0.0923	0.4023	6.37	6.7723	T	T	3.72	98.72	130	463.98077962689	80.009815043693	0.097255925941553	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.83	25.43	30.13	172.28598498017	0.1021	0.4121	6.37	6.7821	T	T	2.83	102.83	130	463.9276694544	79.928235491506	0.083338960386149	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.11	25.71	30.41	174.43303672961	0.086	0.116	6.37	6.486	T	F	3.11	95.11	130	464.65630048748	81.051409529577	0.087546368875599	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.9	24.99	29.445	173.50699268606	0.0854	0.2754	6.37	6.6454	T	T	1.9	101.9	130	464.34252218799	80.566674601098	0.070449388957877	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.51	25.23	28.87	173.7449473507	0.1328	0.3228	6.37	6.6928	T	T	0.51	99.51	130	464.42322058538	80.69118800905	0.054105199487347	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.62	25.44	29.03	174.44348340962	0.1323	0.3323	6.37	6.7023	T	T	0.62	99.62	130	464.65983600448	81.056880393166	0.05527853260594	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.95	24.47	29.21	174.5449022957	0.1375	0.3475	6.37	6.7175	T	T	1.95	94.95	130	464.69415477926	81.109995843331	0.071101052354859	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.43	26.03	29.73	174.98297489607	0.0751	0.3951	6.37	6.7651	T	T	1.43	97.43	130	464.84229107876	81.339486950468	0.064545519403264	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.68	26	30.84	175.41089080054	0.0598	0.3398	6.27	6.6098	T	T	3.68	88.68	130	464.98683378737	81.563754725168	0.096596050902271	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.69	26	30.845	174.49077926489	0.0598	0.3598	6.44	6.7998	T	T	3.69	95.69	130	464.67584138017	81.081649667994	0.096760711527696	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.56	25.91	29.735	174.64847760071	0.1009	0.3809	6.44	6.8209	T	T	1.56	93.56	130	464.72919413352	81.164246252022	0.066138802595354	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	29.85	25.99	27.92	175.64498325304	0.0869	0.4069	6.44	6.8469	T	T	-2.15	87.85	130	465.06583977815	81.686481639394	0.031253891276431	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	31.07	25.7	28.385	175.98905917297	0.0966	0.4066	6.49	6.8966	T	T	-0.93	84.07	130	465.18187985511	81.866921380013	0.040488850745732	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.4	25.79	30.095	176.55033921354	0.0899	0.4099	6.55	6.9599	T	T	2.4	89.4	130	465.37095480654	82.161399931223	0.077175203174841	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.99	24.4	28.695	168.7108855684	0.1289	0.4789	5.58	6.0589	T	F	0.99	79.99	130	462.70555943671	78.063464689991	0.059372675561386	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.99	25.39	29.19	166.98917460395	0.1291	0.4591	5.94	6.3991	T	F	0.99	87.99	130	462.11303978693	77.167875087739	0.059372675561386	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.03	25.55	29.29	167.83534882546	0.1268	0.5568	5.99	6.5468	T	T	1.03	88.03	130	462.40457092371	77.607832459469	0.059829118053584	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.27	25.33	28.8	170.37281363004	0.143	0.673	6.02	6.693	T	T	0.27	85.27	130	463.27505251501	78.929474181587	0.051613420011427	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.91	25.32	29.115	171.81376093019	0.1532	0.6932	6.26	6.9532	T	T	0.91	79.91	130	463.76688005479	79.681531857075	0.058467957120455	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	28.33	25.31	26.82	172.47279497296	0.1517	0.6617	6.44	7.1017	T	T	-3.67	77.33	130	463.99122389507	80.025863228109	0.022250572703895	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.99	26.34	30.665	172.16155656925	0.0488	0.5388	5.19	5.7288	T	F	2.99	89.99	130	463.88532105363	79.86321894222	0.085724245598745	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.17	25.82	29.995	168.9375396597	0.0583	0.5683	6.19	6.7583	T	T	2.17	88.17	130	462.78336866473	78.181483697648	0.074023286979413	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.17	26.79	30.48	169.93702353485	0.0583	0.6083	6.35	6.9583	T	T	2.17	91.17	130	463.125952735	78.702245929531	0.074023286979413	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.7	27.22	31.46	172.75465821227	0.0475	0.5075	6.34	6.8475	T	T	3.7	93.7	130	464.08705924711	80.173201300972	0.096925577507204	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	35.66	27.16	31.41	173.73799415958	0.0475	0.5275	6.48	7.0075	T	T	3.66	87.66	130	464.42086321709	80.687549221196	0.096267345299091	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.84	26.66	29.75	172.9577148222	0.1017	0.5817	6.35	6.9317	T	T	0.84	82.84	130	464.1560573216	80.279370995225	0.057685210991925	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	36.35	25.5	30.925	173.65669198311	0.0157	0.3957	4.96	5.3557	T	F	4.35	79.35	130	464.39329592415	80.645003549322	0.10808710528419	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	36.15	24.81	30.48	173.01588508709	0.0507	0.5007	5.76	6.2607	T	F	4.15	80.15	130	464.17581686006	80.309789790069	0.10455871851896	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	36.19	25.77	30.98	172.26068024958	0.0507	0.5007	5.57	6.0707	T	F	4.19	84.19	130	463.91905823799	79.915012552821	0.10525765787622	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.03	25.14	29.585	175.21345233556	0.0872	0.4972	5.63	6.1272	T	F	2.03	78.03	130	464.92016195538	81.460266636609	0.072153295497691	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.97	24.83	29.4	177.70129127926	0.0817	0.6517	5.89	6.5417	T	T	1.97	79.97	130	465.75782686556	82.765767257434	0.071363005635548	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.79	25.02	29.905	176.17685848599	0.0817	0.4417	5.94	6.3817	T	F	2.79	87.79	130	465.2451726626	81.965432945471	0.082750482740194	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.49	26.36	29.925	182.09127722858	0.4597	0.8597	6.13	6.9897	T	T	1.49	72.49	130	467.22310216006	85.077251423024	0.065277149139324	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	33.49	26.36	29.925	180.51150886554	0.2471	0.6771	5.89	6.5671	T	T	1.49	81.49	130	466.69769309213	84.244304764125	0.065277149139324	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.24	26.37	29.305	180.68824603561	0.1847	0.6347	5.83	6.4647	T	T	0.24	83.24	130	466.75657821806	84.337427443806	0.05130844729708	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	34.43	29.74	32.085	178.82170266213	0.0139	0.3139	6.06	6.3739	T	F	2.43	94.43	130	466.13334840522	83.354759029421	0.077593704799898	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.4	29.89	31.145	176.60938221916	0.0025	0.2825	5.88	6.1625	T	F	0.4	87.4	130	465.3908285957	82.192386728751	0.052951600493812	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-05-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	223	-62	32.42	29.9	31.16	175.769221168	0.0022	0.2822	5.65	5.9322	T	F	0.42	92.42	130	465.1077508843	81.751627132134	0.053159887107061	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L