Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 10, 2022
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Monday, May 9, 2022 |
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Today |
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 ]
DAY 222
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/11/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.03°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.128
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 109
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.86 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 170 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.67 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-05-11 04:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 35.49992 | 22.56008 | 29.03 | 170.03574916667 | 0.049999999999955 | 0.43999999999995 | 6.42 | 6.86 | T | T | 3.49992 | 109.49992 | 129 | 462.64675782885 | 78.666488066959 | 0.12828068185161 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-11 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -62 | 25.94 | 25.94 | 25.94 | 172.00237545504 | 0.0005 | 0.3905 | 6.42 | 6.8105 | T | T | -6.06 | 99.94 | 130 | 463.83112527913 | 79.780055357994 | 0.021231550336986 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-10 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -62 | 32.04 | 25.29 | 28.665 | 172.09456370642 | 0.0261 | 0.4161 | 6.42 | 6.8361 | T | T | 0.039999999999999 | 106.04 | 130 | 463.86251492473 | 79.828217125736 | 0.072448675779337 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-10 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -62 | 28 | 23.74 | 25.87 | 172.13315059738 | 0.0324 | 0.4224 | 6.42 | 6.8424 | T | T | -4 | 102 | 130 | 463.87565138911 | 79.848377359018 | 0.033187965920745 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-10 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -62 | 33.17 | 21.94 | 27.555 | 171.89484428817 | 0.0327 | 0.4227 | 6.42 | 6.8427 | T | T | 1.17 | 107.17 | 130 | 463.79450215828 | 79.723883730209 | 0.088159616319736 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-10 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 33.4 | 22.27 | 27.835 | 174.10494661096 | 0.0307 | 0.1407 | 6.42 | 6.5607 | T | F | 1.4 | 99.4 | 129 | 464.03750349457 | 80.791224771406 | 0.091646485032523 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.78 | 19.94 | 26.36 | 173.1367052552 | 0.0359 | 0.2959 | 6.42 | 6.7159 | T | T | 0.78 | 106.78 | 129 | 463.70788588 | 80.284855562119 | 0.08247389559585 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.43 | 21.28 | 26.855 | 173.15960494889 | 0.0426 | 0.3026 | 6.42 | 6.7226 | T | T | 0.43 | 106.43 | 129 | 463.71569096711 | 80.296825856466 | 0.077609631583141 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.37 | 23.51 | 27.94 | 173.8498078723 | 0.0491 | 0.3091 | 6.42 | 6.7291 | T | T | 0.37 | 106.37 | 129 | 463.95072546763 | 80.65774448476 | 0.076798015364151 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.33 | 21.56 | 26.945 | 173.92639733236 | 0.046 | 0.316 | 6.42 | 6.736 | T | T | 0.33 | 100.33 | 129 | 463.97678105379 | 80.69780997455 | 0.07626052151085 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.11 | 23.09 | 27.1 | 174.68551485513 | 0.0889 | 0.4289 | 6.42 | 6.8489 | T | T | -0.89 | 103.11 | 129 | 464.23475745818 | 81.095087620226 | 0.061202115191472 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-09 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.95 | 24.01 | 27.98 | 175.24108284757 | 0.0862 | 0.2862 | 6.42 | 6.7062 | T | T | -0.050000000000001 | 91.95 | 129 | 464.42324516674 | 81.386032382603 | 0.071295765746876 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.95 | 24.01 | 27.98 | 174.31715110556 | 0.0862 | 0.4762 | 6.42 | 6.8962 | T | T | -0.050000000000001 | 98.95 | 129 | 464.10963586065 | 80.902269523866 | 0.071295765746876 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.97 | 23.86 | 27.915 | 174.22680651167 | 0.091 | 0.461 | 6.42 | 6.881 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 98.97 | 129 | 464.07893075803 | 80.854990075321 | 0.071550747208904 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.48 | 23.81 | 27.645 | 175.27397060334 | 0.1151 | 0.4951 | 6.42 | 6.9151 | T | T | -0.52 | 97.48 | 129 | 464.43439466837 | 81.403260438284 | 0.065501787356584 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.18 | 23.75 | 27.465 | 175.5660360237 | 0.115 | 0.545 | 6.42 | 6.965 | T | T | -0.82 | 92.18 | 129 | 464.53336889984 | 81.556282178482 | 0.06199825029487 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.66 | 23.77 | 27.715 | 176.20355773043 | 0.1091 | 0.6091 | 6.42 | 7.0291 | T | T | -0.34 | 93.66 | 129 | 464.74915541117 | 81.890454635659 | 0.067676205205217 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-08 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.1 | 23.24 | 27.67 | 168.05004829714 | 0.1419 | 0.6219 | 5.47 | 6.0919 | T | F | 0.1 | 86.1 | 129 | 461.96286049824 | 77.632881018212 | 0.07322515464063 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32 | 23.31 | 27.655 | 166.26546231088 | 0.1353 | 0.6453 | 5.78 | 6.4253 | T | T | 0 | 94 | 129 | 461.34527940897 | 76.705786165874 | 0.071934526113315 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.69 | 22.67 | 27.68 | 167.10722173128 | 0.1879 | 0.7979 | 5.78 | 6.5779 | T | T | 0.69 | 93.69 | 129 | 461.63693091739 | 77.142864974161 | 0.081201767086117 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.56 | 23.15 | 27.355 | 169.54866246639 | 0.2183 | 0.9283 | 5.78 | 6.7083 | T | T | -0.44 | 91.56 | 129 | 462.4793189317 | 78.412749943238 | 0.066461434599133 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.65 | 23.2 | 27.425 | 170.93861730655 | 0.2184 | 0.9184 | 6.04 | 6.9584 | T | T | -0.35 | 85.65 | 129 | 462.95657668325 | 79.137157091208 | 0.067553964244836 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.84 | 23.09 | 27.465 | 171.53625096407 | 0.1921 | 0.8821 | 6.23 | 7.1121 | T | T | -0.16 | 87.84 | 129 | 463.16126398571 | 79.448946815889 | 0.069905776963797 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-07 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.94 | 24.65 | 28.795 | 172.00070252463 | 0.2112 | 0.8312 | 5.01 | 5.8412 | T | F | 0.94 | 93.94 | 129 | 463.32012248922 | 79.691386561943 | 0.084772287479181 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.24 | 24.54 | 28.39 | 168.68976010717 | 0.216 | 0.856 | 6 | 6.856 | T | T | 0.24 | 93.24 | 129 | 462.18356105269 | 77.965634039459 | 0.075061597836486 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.24 | 24.53 | 28.385 | 169.70813300251 | 0.2153 | 0.9353 | 6.12 | 7.0553 | T | T | 0.24 | 96.24 | 129 | 462.53416066986 | 78.495808857164 | 0.075061597836486 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.85 | 25.35 | 29.1 | 172.63899813957 | 0.1609 | 0.8809 | 6.08 | 6.9609 | T | T | 0.85 | 96.85 | 129 | 463.53813614588 | 80.024759423709 | 0.083473622361103 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 33.34 | 25.57 | 29.455 | 173.61595028429 | 0.174 | 0.944 | 6.18 | 7.124 | T | T | 1.34 | 91.34 | 129 | 463.87113619421 | 80.535428119814 | 0.090727198931566 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 28.52 | 25.43 | 26.975 | 172.36020872055 | 0.1736 | 0.8736 | 6.12 | 6.9936 | T | T | -3.48 | 88.52 | 129 | 463.4429574391 | 79.879124874275 | 0.036955074565296 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-06 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.03 | 24.34 | 28.185 | 173.67417544049 | 0.1507 | 0.7307 | 4.77 | 5.5007 | T | F | 0.030000000000001 | 82.03 | 129 | 463.89095651143 | 80.565879366426 | 0.072319876081069 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.61 | 23.82 | 27.715 | 172.82139128792 | 0.2081 | 0.8281 | 5.54 | 6.3681 | T | T | -0.39 | 82.61 | 129 | 463.60036870502 | 80.120060721196 | 0.067066700123604 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.6 | 23.83 | 27.715 | 172.060334182 | 0.1913 | 0.8013 | 5.38 | 6.1813 | T | F | -0.4 | 86.6 | 129 | 463.34050500728 | 79.72252213161 | 0.066945308374364 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.6 | 25.09 | 28.345 | 174.57044407097 | 0.1558 | 0.7458 | 5.45 | 6.1958 | T | F | -0.4 | 82.6 | 129 | 464.19568409902 | 81.034846708994 | 0.066945308374364 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.12 | 24.74 | 27.93 | 177.10004611679 | 0.1386 | 0.9386 | 5.68 | 6.6186 | T | T | -0.88 | 85.12 | 129 | 465.05200566506 | 82.360731649987 | 0.061315358849194 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 31.85 | 24.76 | 28.305 | 175.56462313048 | 0.1386 | 0.7086 | 5.75 | 6.4586 | T | T | -0.15 | 91.85 | 129 | 464.53289027964 | 81.555541813657 | 0.070031274330269 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-05 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.46 | 26.44 | 29.45 | 177.9840683668 | 0.176 | 0.726 | 5.96 | 6.686 | T | T | 0.46 | 78.46 | 129 | 465.34997009321 | 82.824880891558 | 0.078017865635438 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.49 | 26.43 | 29.46 | 178.37046799548 | 0.176 | 0.686 | 5.79 | 6.476 | T | T | 0.49 | 87.49 | 129 | 465.47999817155 | 83.027885116394 | 0.078427721265611 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.73 | 26.41 | 29.57 | 178.90032554305 | 0.2034 | 0.7634 | 5.68 | 6.4434 | T | T | 0.73 | 89.73 | 129 | 465.6580941935 | 83.306384642975 | 0.081765323960432 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 37.65 | 28.83 | 33.24 | 178.79511050579 | 0.1061 | 0.7961 | 5.72 | 6.5161 | T | T | 5.65 | 98.65 | 129 | 465.62274832459 | 83.251070740705 | 0.17518342968409 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 37.32 | 28.4 | 32.86 | 176.60268826867 | 0.0548 | 0.8448 | 5.48 | 6.3248 | T | T | 5.32 | 94.32 | 129 | 464.88407421325 | 82.099777239353 | 0.16735467955315 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 37.35 | 28.34 | 32.845 | 175.76314043785 | 0.0548 | 0.8148 | 5.28 | 6.0948 | T | F | 5.35 | 99.35 | 129 | 464.60012155404 | 81.659576412146 | 0.1680569473142 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-04 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 39.53 | 28.59 | 34.06 | 180.47329023205 | 0.0156 | 1.3256 | 5.15 | 6.4756 | T | T | 7.53 | 98.53 | 129 | 466.1853902257 | 84.134011232142 | 0.2240807057168 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-03 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 39.5 | 28.59 | 34.045 | 182.53089976701 | 0.0151 | 1.3451 | 5.33 | 6.6751 | T | T | 7.5 | 99.5 | 129 | 466.87197827752 | 85.218562271 | 0.22324425313158 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 39.41 | 29.08 | 34.245 | 180.76687832351 | 0.0046 | 1.1346 | 5.5 | 6.6346 | T | T | 7.41 | 101.41 | 129 | 466.28357500817 | 84.288626267755 | 0.22074556762278 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-03 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32 | 29.49 | 30.745 | 176.35398107113 | 0.0683 | 0.5183 | 5.5 | 6.0183 | T | F | 0 | 96 | 129 | 464.80001934057 | 81.969333812648 | 0.071934526113315 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-03 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.89 | 29.84 | 31.365 | 176.12684194014 | 0.0542 | 0.5942 | 5.35 | 5.9442 | T | F | 0.89 | 98.89 | 129 | 464.72320736159 | 81.850230888891 | 0.084048955236593 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-05-03 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 222 | -63 | 32.92 | 29.85 | 31.385 | 176.42250004356 | 0.0276 | 0.5676 | 5.22 | 5.7876 | T | F | 0.92 | 102.92 | 129 | 464.82318180466 | 82.00526781218 | 0.084482398316785 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |