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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 3, 2022

[ Monday, May 2, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 4, 2022 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/04/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.170
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 122
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-04 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022215-7035.5899229.9400832.765163.026248750.22999999999991.12999999999993.554.6799999999999TF3.5899267.58992122456.50561817337 74.4223984641050.1701673333722416 1114126WETL
2022-05-04 00:00:01FORECAST2022215-6937.1737.1737.17163.9717373333300.93.554.45TF5.1769.17123457.3797678904474.9973551621120.21746694356971161113124.5WETL
2022-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2022215-6936.2533.7134.98163.793305333330.00720.90723.554.4572TF4.2568.25123457.3160672590374.9053102383980.18906687560863161113124.5WETL
2022-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2022215-6936.9229.3633.14163.885090666670.01150.91153.554.4615TF4.9268.92123457.3488384383874.9526558537690.2095159348135161113124.5WETL
2022-05-03 04:00:06FORECAST2022215-6938.129.533.8163.831400750.01670.91673.554.4667TF6.170.1123457.3296698337974.9249604134050.24852614796067161113124.5WETL
2022-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2022215-7038.1429.8433.99162.7853240.03270.04273.553.5927FF6.1461.14122456.4190655617174.2983254672410.24991297343315162111122DRYL
2022-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2022215-7038.2429.5933.915161.751758666670.0350.2453.553.795TF6.2461.24122456.0471539292373.766429182980.25339790183238162112124DRYL
2022-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2022215-7038.4130.4234.415161.778326666670.03470.24473.553.7947TF6.4161.41122456.0567262221373.7800940332950.25938030191696162112124DRYL
2022-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2022215-7038.3930.8534.62162.263654395140.04040.25043.553.8004TF6.3961.39122456.2314732954274.0297861069950.25867272750232162112124DRYL
2022-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2022215-7038.2830.834.54163.090145285010.04960.53963.554.0896TF6.2863.28122456.528564223474.4553098659510.25479898061332162113126WETL
2022-05-02 04:00:06FORECAST2022215-7038.6631.134.88162.730592152750.04140.79143.554.3414TF6.6667.66122456.3993956717674.2701439158240.26830847403551162113126WETL
2022-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.6631.3835.52166.088939228440.04360.83363.554.3836TF7.6661.66122457.6012908572576.0025129880460.30549481933612162113126WETL
2022-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.2431.1335.185166.890770815330.04730.84733.554.3973TF7.2465.24122457.8867397574576.4170709442390.28959913651162162113126WETL
2022-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.9231.5435.73166.903821049210.05040.78043.554.3304TF7.9266.92122457.8913807832576.4238210782250.31552456105013162113126WETL
2022-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022215-7039.8831.5635.72166.474000630770.04580.74583.554.2958TF7.8866.88122457.7384437636476.2015499758380.31397240725884162113126WETL
2022-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.8931.6535.77166.056144599740.04370.73373.554.2837TF7.8967.89122457.5896037185575.9855654024250.31436013894314162113126WETL
2022-05-01 04:00:06FORECAST2022215-7039.3831.9635.67166.360574553310.05380.87383.554.4238TF7.3867.38122457.6980570883176.1429117491460.29485450327417162113126WETL
2022-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.6231.8935.755163.856340746350.0560.7862.763.546TF7.6260.62122456.803424785874.85013762580.30396439369223162113126DRYL
2022-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2022215-7038.7732.0435.405163.362635472980.05120.75123.013.7612TF6.7763.77122456.6263770860674.5956883872570.27228520658875162113126DRYL
2022-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2022215-7041.2831.836.54163.162879272370.04070.58073.013.5907TF9.2866.28122456.5546793818974.4927760332210.37007845694127162113126DRYL
2022-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2022215-7041.2931.5736.43163.105818383060.03890.62893.013.6389TF9.2966.29122456.5341920614574.4633830160330.37049111772671162113126DRYL
2022-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2022215-7039.1131.4535.28163.744803607030.03510.57513.183.7551TF7.1161.11122456.7634458517174.7926407358590.28475884618009162113126DRYL
2022-04-30 04:00:07FORECAST2022215-7042.5131.2536.88163.335044647160.0220.6423.374.012TF10.5166.51122456.6164761850974.581472524320.42181666093039162113126WETL
2022-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2022215-7042.6531.837.225164.833879655390.02270.56273.664.2227TF10.6556.65122457.1533257890975.3543562871830.42781059466474162113126WETL
2022-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022215-7042.9532.2137.58164.824407126220.02210.53213.734.2621TF10.9563.95122457.1499393518375.3494677214560.44070923716457162113126WETL
2022-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2022215-7042.5931.7437.165165.281625611550.0260.6763.634.306TF10.5961.59122457.3133024388775.5854860408810.42523964145509162113126WETL
2022-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2022215-7041.4431.3636.4166.878922652920.06740.91743.674.5874TF9.4461.44122457.8825260884476.4109426552360.37669866451247162113126WETL
2022-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2022215-7036.6630.2833.47167.917741234750.0911.1013.644.741TF4.6654.66122458.2514890959776.9485549664590.20143075291633161114126WETL
2022-04-29 04:00:07FORECAST2022215-7041.9229.9935.955167.457835057040.06950.96953.624.5895TF9.9263.92122458.0882617358676.7104685753280.39677056439543162113126WETL
2022-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2022215-7041.7230.2735.995169.12727264840.06240.88243.54.3824TF9.7257.72122458.6798602584677.5752737842630.3883706198295162113126WETL
2022-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022215-7041.429.2235.31169.206554837940.07950.99953.774.7695TF9.465.4122458.7078931366477.616382274620.37504012448063162114128WETL
2022-04-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022215-7041.4230.6336.025169.101501564470.09131.05133.754.8013TF9.4262.42122458.6707468112677.5619120094830.37586910795536162114128WETL
2022-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2022215-7043.429.7636.58171.189064685780.07131.28133.85.0813TF11.463.4122459.4070436422778.6454621111810.46017146235322162114128WETL
2022-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022215-7043.3429.8136.575171.546308720520.07131.23133.734.9613TF11.3459.34122459.5326551313178.8311307243170.457569938938162114128WETL
2022-04-28 04:00:08FORECAST2022215-7043.5528.7636.155171.653997082580.06831.22833.85.0283TF11.5562.55122459.5704973595578.8871128129950.46668249241008162114128WETL
2022-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022215-7043.2428.2835.76169.074317477320.0321.1223.634.752TF11.2453.24122458.6611330361777.5478180214670.45323815812914162114128WETL
2022-04-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022215-7043.2628.4635.86169.300984867130.03111.08113.744.8211TF11.2658.26122458.7412746765477.6653496019420.45410408605937162114128WETL
2022-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2022215-7043.2828.9536.115168.701140788150.03111.06113.754.8111TF11.2859.28122458.5290902900477.3543806164810.4549702321887162114128WETL
2022-04-27 12:00:04FORECAST2022215-7042.8932.2637.575168.857571043370.03310.40313.74.1031TF10.8957.89122458.5844559305477.4354573466780.43812401720062162112124WETL
2022-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022215-7042.9232.3137.615169.879614765510.03310.40313.664.0631TF10.9250.92122458.9456488070877.9655100176530.43941630423749162112124WETL
2022-04-27 04:00:07FORECAST2022215-7044.2831.9538.115170.439025796030.02750.50753.644.1475TF12.2857.28122459.1429493971478.2558769963660.4984648544188162113126WETL
2022-04-27 00:00:04FORECAST2022215-7041.3133.2837.295171.802883253270.06030.60033.23.8003TF9.3161.31122459.6227996581778.9645221902150.37131688589875162113126DRYL
2022-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2022215-7040.7834.2937.535169.327125509560.08930.53933.574.1093TF8.7862.78122458.7505141239377.6789058826380.34964494901338162113126WETL
2022-04-26 16:00:04FORECAST2022215-7040.7834.6437.71169.130660335070.07320.52323.544.0632TF8.7861.78122458.681058204277.5770302572670.34964494901338162113126WETL
2022-04-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022215-7037.2633.0235.14171.98982970070.00270.27274.044.3127TF5.2660.26122459.6884441671679.0617372276910.22037132017086161112123WETL
2022-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022215-7034.0533.0333.54172.589020901640.00270.27273.94.1727TF2.0548.05122459.8986346535779.3734550688620.13095049123636161112123WETL
2022-04-26 04:00:08FORECAST2022215-7033.0632.6932.875172.486902669270.00120.28123.874.1512TF1.0653.06122459.8628351739779.3203160918670.10930671083995161112123WETL