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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 26, 2022

[ Monday, April 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 27, 2022 ]

DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.070
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 115
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-27 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022208-7728.7200422.9899225.85498163.764436250.299999999999950.449999999999956.116.56TT-3.27996-17.27996115452.96606412549 74.1797321318920.07009615864848816 1112123WETL
2022-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2022208-7624.5524.5524.55166.011310002350.00240.15246.116.2624TF-7.45-21.45116454.3374304930775.4251520192570.029499870103838161112123WETL
2022-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2022208-7630.221.9326.065165.600289289070.33730.48736.116.5973TT-1.8-15.8116454.1874739680575.2135770805840.091978414484674161112123WETL
2022-04-26 08:00:01FORECAST2022208-7625.6621.2223.44165.579835841870.31980.46986.116.5798TT-6.34-20.34116454.1800076560475.2030511103460.037690480985217161112123WETL
2022-04-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022208-7628.6221.4225.02165.497574641980.31730.46736.116.5773TT-3.38-17.38116454.1499751678975.1607194140010.068775161812802161112123WETL
2022-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2022208-7727.2521.7124.48167.958366410280.40450.40456.116.5145TF-4.75-28.75115454.5017906008976.3373782798720.052551133592982161112123WETL
2022-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2022208-7727.6721.5324.6167.950867110540.39820.51826.116.6282TT-4.33-19.33115454.4990590940476.333511075770.057166285675715161113124.5WETL
2022-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2022208-7727.6822.2924.985167.770849664060.35710.47716.116.5871TT-4.32-19.32115454.433474836376.2406901890770.057279925979622161112123WETL
2022-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7728.0422.4725.255168.024448464960.32470.44476.116.5547TT-3.96-18.96115454.5258577437376.3714565604540.061490188213007161112123WETL
2022-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2022208-7728.5722.8325.7168.222398267870.31910.49916.116.6091TT-3.43-21.43115454.5979270675976.4735535389130.068122138318078161113124.5WETL
2022-04-25 04:00:06FORECAST2022208-7728.5922.8725.73168.679482176740.31560.54566.116.6556TT-3.41-19.41115454.7642032481476.7093903164120.068382772982131161113124.5WETL
2022-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022208-7728.5322.1325.33171.590282514340.35770.64776.116.7577TT-3.47-32.47115455.8185656691878.2140364584560.06760316242185161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2022208-7729.3521.5325.44172.812153544410.36250.64256.116.7525TT-2.65-23.65115456.258839288578.8470725911190.078865519519263161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2022208-7729.5221.7325.625173.080839826220.39950.68956.116.7995TT-2.48-23.48115456.3554711844278.9863882118880.081368314431012161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7729.3621.6325.495172.195606932030.37960.66966.116.7796TT-2.64-22.64115456.0368514345978.5275424161510.079011114864136161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2022208-7729.621.3825.49172.11974867310.36770.63776.116.7477TT-2.4-24.4115456.0095146127478.4882430476850.082566558670995161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022208-7729.8521.4925.67172.000210346150.31060.60066.116.7106TT-2.15-23.15115455.9664262395378.4263212239810.086396388865649161113124.5WETL
2022-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022208-7729.5922.0225.805174.374033944630.27850.56855.956.5185TT-2.41-33.41115456.8196415962579.6574836902780.082416058286374161113124.5WETL
2022-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022208-7728.923.2126.055174.25483342480.22370.49375.956.4437TF-3.1-25.1115456.77692032579.5955861635250.07252132549939161113124.5WETL
2022-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2022208-7729.1623.4326.295174.071606841590.21330.50335.956.4533TF-2.84-25.84115456.7112269902679.5004571447890.076137552137115161113124.5WETL
2022-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2022208-7729.4522.0725.76173.754604819340.2260.4865.956.436TF-2.55-25.55115456.5974981085379.3359178453450.08033061532547161112123WETL
2022-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2022208-7730.0322.8226.425174.455342858720.33840.57845.956.5284TT-1.97-23.97115456.8487751582379.6997097048150.089234770887709161113124.5WETL
2022-04-23 04:00:06FORECAST2022208-7730.0222.9526.485174.184601528730.33580.56585.956.5158TT-1.98-26.98115456.7517432720979.5591203994010.089075290789977161113124.5WETL
2022-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2022208-7731.2523.0427.145176.266837085160.26750.52755.866.3875TF-0.75-27.75115457.4962885857480.6414237672060.11031451670677161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2022208-7731.1823.6427.41176.776503208710.31970.58975.936.5197TT-0.82-24.82115457.6779308866180.9067042179310.10901625930596161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2022208-7731.6223.6427.63177.069490221180.31850.73855.946.6785TT-0.38-24.38115457.7822435103381.0592684906810.11736041165947161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7732.8524.6528.75177.210071468280.39090.75095.946.6909TT0.85-18.15115457.8322673181681.1324888119340.14304355555335161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 08:00:04FORECAST2022208-7734.1524.2829.215176.848948827820.34720.62725.936.5572TT2.15-24.85115457.7037310382780.9444237086880.17403620072579161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 04:00:07FORECAST2022208-7733.8524.5429.195177.172791333440.34510.71515.926.6351TT1.85-19.15115457.8190034605281.1130707685930.16653115585305161113124.5WETL
2022-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022208-7733.3924.4328.91176.813242031570.30180.64185.596.2318TF1.39-27.61115457.6910153242580.9258322682020.15543459350445161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2022208-7730.8424.4827.66176.023835959150.35080.59085.766.3508TF-1.16-26.16115457.4096014555380.5149926527490.10286607816733161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2022208-7732.6824.5728.625175.611237501920.27840.51845.766.2784TF0.68-26.32115457.2622903288780.3003966676130.13928435098278161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7733.5524.9329.24177.58724632960.48410.67415.786.4541TT1.55-28.45115457.9663913311181.3289903479960.15923776456604161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 08:00:04FORECAST2022208-7734.3924.5729.48178.560651575820.47430.68435.866.5443TT2.39-41.61115458.3119427322781.8364791192540.180192229316161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 04:00:06FORECAST2022208-7732.8724.6228.745178.642965159770.47430.72435.996.7143TT0.87-27.13115458.3411242644981.8794174932730.14349026711399161113124.5WETL
2022-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022208-7734.6526.5830.615179.499697315730.66890.86895.86.6689TT2.65-24.35115458.644488094182.3265467884180.18701311314941161113124.5WETL
2022-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022208-7733.9825.3129.645178.531975357170.68870.84876.156.9987TT1.98-27.02115458.3017751035581.8215212189360.16975738262787161113124.5WETL
2022-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2022208-7734.425.3129.855178.460585426250.68870.83876.16.9387TT2.4-26.6115458.2764594029881.7842852321270.18045165511052161113124.5WETL
2022-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7738.2827.6832.98178.122017387710.79340.83346.187.0134TT6.28-8.72115458.1563367064581.6077309731170.29785344899745162113126WETL
2022-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022208-7738.2827.6832.98178.534907445160.79340.83346.267.0934TT6.28-10.72115458.3028147579581.8230506146650.29785344899745162113126WETL
2022-04-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022208-7738.2827.6832.98179.047230484950.79340.83346.267.0934TT6.28-10.72115458.4843545033482.0903538945020.29785344899745162113126WETL
2022-04-20 00:00:04FORECAST2022208-7734.5927.7231.155176.802089865750.60780.73785.96.6378TT2.59-25.41115457.6870436380280.9200258196810.18542508469897161113124.5WETL
2022-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022208-7734.5927.7231.155175.645127940220.56720.69726.066.7572TT2.59-17.41115457.2743961428280.3180198142910.18542508469897161113124.5WETL
2022-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022208-7734.5927.7231.155176.00289969020.52830.65836.036.6883TT2.59-21.41115457.4021302411680.5041012469210.18542508469897161113124.5WETL
2022-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022208-7736.329.5132.905174.923244502360.4690.5096.036.539TT4.3-23.7115457.0163107568379.9427758680830.23390669126647161113124.5WETL
2022-04-19 08:00:04FORECAST2022208-7736.333.8935.095174.726632449570.29010.33016.166.4901TF4.3-23.7115456.9459366304579.8406247189530.23390669126647161112123WETL
2022-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022208-7736.3135.8136.06175.336970621180.01990.05996.246.2999TF4.31-18.69115457.164282639480.1578003941990.23420940078439161111121.5WETL