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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 18, 2022

[ Sunday, April 17, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 19, 2022 ]

DAY 200 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.72 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.97 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 107
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-19 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022200-8532.9300623.5799628.25501171.059369166670.720000000000030.970000000000037.658.62TT0.93006-0.069940000000003107451.23531976066 77.1880291439770.1936068807314116 1113124.5WETL
2022-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022200-8423.7523.7523.75174.082467289870.01710.26717.657.9171TT-8.25-9.25108452.9092097194578.8435526862680.034373848987152161112123WETL
2022-04-18 12:00:01FORECAST2022200-8433.5319.9626.745173.822622297910.5920.8427.658.492TT1.530.53108452.8134833008378.7092270792020.21117432271247161113124.5WETL
2022-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2022200-8432.8920.1126.5174.136523933180.65270.90277.658.5527TT0.89-0.11108452.9291161578.8715018744890.19246640975565161113124.5WETL
2022-04-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8430.1920.7825.485174.528786307160.70110.95117.658.6011TT-1.81-2.81108453.0734854397179.0743655217490.12518316861056161113124.5WETL
2022-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2022200-8529.8820.9325.405176.538295683330.75080.97087.658.6208TT-2.12-10.12107453.2622383830680.0181430617580.11866354125679161113124.5WETL
2022-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2022200-8529.8722.2326.05176.434451668250.76350.99357.658.6435TT-2.13-5.13107453.2240831459279.9643425926960.11845728905292161114126WETL
2022-04-17 16:00:01FORECAST2022200-8529.0822.1425.61176.743964760470.8081.0387.658.688TT-2.92-5.92107453.3377773385780.1247161425180.10295412718392161114126WETL
2022-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2022200-8530.222226.11176.57013121550.77731.00737.658.6573TT-1.78-4.78107453.2739336452980.0346379403140.12582708374447161114126WETL
2022-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2022200-8529.322.926.1176.51738765010.73870.96877.658.6187TT-2.7-5.7107453.2545569876480.0073103399630.10711579054149161113124.5WETL
2022-04-17 04:00:05FORECAST2022200-8529.9822.5226.25176.357469323620.75130.99137.658.6413TT-2.02-6.02107453.1957911520979.9244628356970.12073998216249161114126WETL
2022-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2022200-8530.1522.426.275180.546876103480.88930.93937.658.5893TT-1.85-10.85107454.7274384742182.0996184950560.12432818883506161113124.5WETL
2022-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2022200-8528.462225.23178.32220015650.83641.28647.658.9364TT-3.54-7.54107453.9161265152280.9433223667120.091858241207991161114126WETL
2022-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022200-8528.4622.1125.285178.442845232420.83571.29577.658.9457TT-3.54-7.54107453.9602419567381.0059571971550.091858241207991161114126WETL
2022-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2022200-8528.5122.3425.425180.998638899180.85891.31897.658.9689TT-3.49-7.49107454.8916315453982.3347661563430.092718940000103161114126WETL
2022-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2022200-8528.7422.0325.385181.207751827730.88171.30177.658.9517TT-3.26-6.26107454.967569819282.4436504814620.096754794910513161114126WETL
2022-04-16 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8528.621.6725.135181.073220800730.88741.29747.658.9474TT-3.4-7.4107454.9187202030882.3735978697190.094283152613467161114126WETL
2022-04-16 00:00:03FORECAST2022200-8530.7822.2826.53184.588138077030.92151.36157.578.9315TT-1.22-16.22107456.1895599244884.2071814766380.13827082914946161114126WETL
2022-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022200-8530.3221.9626.14183.562975407660.95481.36487.739.0948TT-1.68-7.68107455.8200774003583.6716896581570.12799008623434161114126WETL
2022-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2022200-8530.323.3826.84183.570483930430.91891.35897.739.0889TT-1.7-9.7107455.8227870727683.6756096094640.12755543830812161114126WETL
2022-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022200-8530.6823.4727.075183.518532568040.77171.21177.738.9417TT-1.32-7.32107455.8040378296283.6484881610790.13598947593324161114126WETL
2022-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022200-8531.4723.827.635183.131076099680.64131.12137.728.8413TT-0.53-7.53107455.6641267557583.44626187280.1547193457313161114126WETL
2022-04-15 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8531.9322.9727.45183.923946885710.70941.20947.89.0094TT-0.07-7.07107455.9502861702883.8601762161060.16637371820364161114126WETL
2022-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022200-8530.2622.9826.62188.114392190230.88511.36517.578.9351TT-1.74-13.74107457.4531485307186.053520991360.12668921470242161114126WETL
2022-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022200-8530.1721.7925.98185.37952515140.83281.24287.819.0528TT-1.83-4.83107456.4741292578384.6209573257160.12475516843338161114126WETL
2022-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022200-8530.1721.7925.98186.327030099440.83291.34297.859.1929TT-1.83-7.83107456.8140843643985.1168116472140.12475516843338161114126WETL
2022-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022200-8532.8223.9128.365188.379889067220.82481.28487.969.2448TT0.82-2.18107457.5478286319386.1928092006320.19048343775874161114126WETL
2022-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022200-8533.8323.9128.87187.850388899110.73031.12038.059.1703TT1.83-6.17107457.3589377320785.9150543194520.22029760860428161114126WETL
2022-04-14 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8533.8825.5529.715188.073424001820.69951.11958.059.1695TT1.88-0.12107457.4385329834886.0320311685740.22183978838862161114126WETL
2022-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022200-8533.6926.9230.305193.722710718671.0721.6227.849.462TT1.69-18.31107459.4396494828389.003894309450.21601229528603161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2022200-8534.827.1630.98192.417455038421.00621.52628.149.6662TT2.8-4.2107458.9798432509688.3157333522820.251291503060561621151210WETL
2022-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022200-8532.8723.9728.42193.109992177571.2941.79489.794TT0.87-6.13107459.2239951655188.6807421141640.19189856537857161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022200-8537.7524.9131.33188.899071582550.57771.03777.979.0077TT5.753.75107457.7327923662586.4652995108710.35790966143119162114128WETL
2022-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022200-8538.3624.9331.645188.911149725380.57771.11777.848.9577TT6.367.36107457.7370924175586.4716404005530.38182056556956162114128WETL
2022-04-13 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8538.2427.532.87188.124935869180.29070.83077.918.7407TT6.243.24107457.4569097796986.0590518152180.37707770659021162113126WETL
2022-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2022200-853525.9930.495182.532081274070.43880.81887.498.3088TT3-15107455.4475577260883.1337906229330.25795665241438162113126WETL
2022-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2022200-8535.0426.0530.545181.081619581980.44030.90037.758.6503TT3.042.04107454.9217703765282.3779709628840.25930058726977162113126WETL
2022-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2022200-8534.4226.9830.7180.316421306980.36110.80117.728.5211TT2.427.42107454.6436071400981.9797082095960.23888256221339161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2022200-8540.1928.134.145183.920369111570.36621.16627.728.8862TT8.1911.19107455.9489961898283.8583076752790.4559439586863162114128WETL
2022-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2022200-8540.1928.134.145184.830618123850.36621.09627.929.0162TT8.194.19107456.2768124158784.3339252744070.4559439586863162114128WETL
2022-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2022200-8539.6929.1834.435183.884645093080.37121.10127.728.8212TT7.69-2.31107455.9361151122983.839650712540.43542363560471162114128WETL
2022-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022200-8537.1228.232.66183.912208702710.4981.7386.498.228TT5.125.12107455.9460538786283.8540458181030.333787485761831621151210WETL
2022-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2022200-8537.5228.3732.945184.028310673820.26891.58896.958.5389TT5.528.52107455.9879097843883.9146847253070.349031081929181621151210WETL
2022-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2022200-8537.528.4232.96181.690631271510.021.346.98.24TT5.58.5107455.142770950282.6951773726080.34826283785669162114128WETL
2022-04-11 12:00:04FORECAST2022200-8530.9626.3928.675185.72185989780.39511.39517.138.5251TT-1.04-3.04107456.5970498820584.8000533279440.14244250240617161114126WETL
2022-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022200-8527.5525.726.625185.164535166440.24981.26987.198.4598TT-4.45-9.45107456.3968790971884.5085159694450.07720814977251161114126WETL
2022-04-11 04:00:07FORECAST2022200-8527.6625.8826.77186.453114541980.1631.1837.428.603TT-4.34-4.34107456.8592605271985.1828320326380.078878731676481161114126WETL