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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 14, 2022

[ Wednesday, April 13, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, April 15, 2022 ]

DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.050
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.75 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 176 in
SWE DAY: 103
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-15 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022196-8924.2200413.4400218.83003175.657457083330.23999999999990.74999999999997.378.1199999999999TT-7.7799623.22004103450.71802431262 79.1719820123790.05021592309855316 1113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 00:00:01FORECAST2022196-8817.6817.6817.68179.036234552990.0060.5167.377.886TT-14.3216.68104452.5292092126281.0191256426690.010823997659715161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2022196-8825.9417.0221.48178.6147483790.29190.80197.378.1719TT-6.0624.94104452.3734955587580.8005780825530.070617998055895161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 08:00:01FORECAST2022196-8819.3915.5117.45179.160906403750.35610.86617.378.2361TT-12.6118.39104452.5752359843381.0837894948450.016777676663827161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 04:00:05FORECAST2022196-8823.911418.955179.376787743910.40460.91467.378.2846TT-8.0922.91104452.6549013187781.1957821550970.047094226493597161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022196-8924.2914.7519.52182.669706954850.45240.77247.378.1424TT-7.7113.29103453.3162916524582.8071541540120.050942575586719161113124.5WETL
2022-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022196-8923.6817.0520.365181.638962104650.44871.02877.378.3987TT-8.3219.68103452.9372622635582.2710542160710.044880185354216161114126WETL
2022-04-13 16:00:01FORECAST2022196-8924.9216.8820.9181.387053949950.41170.99177.378.3617TT-7.0820.92103452.8444786518382.1401258801590.057867925716595161114126WETL
2022-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022196-8925.516.5921.045182.749347006850.39960.97967.378.3496TT-6.521.5103453.345535915882.8486006570820.064876373843749161113124.5WETL
2022-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2022196-8925.7416.3321.035182.133993051910.35910.85917.378.2291TT-6.2622.74103453.1194207635582.5284494330320.067961680940343161113124.5WETL
2022-04-13 04:00:05FORECAST2022196-8925.6116.1920.9182.320631748550.36870.89877.378.2687TT-6.3923.61103453.1880395103582.6255296644140.066276747089095161113124.5WETL
2022-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022196-8925.1115.5820.345176.075378861150.36190.49197.377.8619TT-6.893.11103450.8741782220879.3878417491630.060095305139937161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022196-8924.3216.8920.605174.294481809950.39490.83497.378.2049TT-7.6820.32103450.2076035954678.4687009755720.05125672091876161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2022196-8926.1515.2420.695173.820752580190.30620.76627.378.1362TT-5.8523.15103450.0297824721278.2245154728030.073491966199663161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.3316.0721.2175.582778849180.29290.75297.378.1229TT-5.6723.33103450.6901037879779.1334208229170.076025583921779161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2022196-8924.7414.4319.585176.476485712250.29890.88897.378.2589TT-7.2617.74103451.0238935268879.5951117018820.055817941977996161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2022196-8920.1115.3217.715175.62387385230.21410.69417.378.0641TT-11.8913.11103450.7054689475579.1546404229850.020018805762338161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2022196-8925.2814.9220.1171.078312090830.26540.81546.016.8254TT-6.7214.28103448.9961524319976.813503893340.062144423969151161113124.5WETL
2022-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.2315.0820.655171.787128728590.33481.08486.217.2948TT-5.7719.23103449.2639968792877.1777720650240.074609958783298161114126WETL
2022-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2022196-8925.0616.0120.535171.368522934670.35530.99536.217.2053TT-6.9419.06103449.1058743056676.9626103210470.059502766863834161114126WETL
2022-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022196-8923.9815.4919.735173.595429117230.43661.14666.217.3566TT-8.0215.98103449.9451289310278.1084177359870.047785123602056161114126WETL
2022-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022196-8924.9515.5520.25173.825096443160.32241.05246.377.4224TT-7.0517.95103450.0314139761478.2267539368560.058215252971246161114126WETL
2022-04-11 04:00:06FORECAST2022196-8924.5216.3420.43175.451014052920.41551.12556.537.6555TT-7.4819.52103450.6408269541579.0653900627510.053390452836095161114126WETL
2022-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2022196-8923.8514.6919.27162.618366794920.38561.01565.476.4856TT-8.159.85103445.7618422848372.4890627718560.046508403364269161114126WETL
2022-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022196-8923.915.8919.895162.050671855150.39411.11415.676.7841TT-8.118.9103445.5423091673272.2004305404580.046996181846952161114126WETL
2022-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022196-8923.8815.919.89162.656141377820.4031.1935.656.843TT-8.1217.88103445.7764388514172.5082754607160.046800582024447161114126WETL
2022-04-10 12:00:04FORECAST2022196-8924.7917.9321.36166.260411937270.71231.54235.537.0723TT-7.2114.79103447.1627513903374.3454632491610.056381567845405161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2022196-8920.7317.2518.99168.097167584810.77121.58125.627.2012TT-11.276.73103447.8643569281975.2847298618210.023220274246784161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 04:00:06FORECAST2022196-8925.9917.8121.9168.547341645490.76821.47825.887.3582TT-6.0119.99103448.0358159556875.5152457412970.071294342631158161114126WETL
2022-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022196-8925.417.6321.515169.556247122580.85561.59565.46.9956TT-6.615.4103448.4193692372476.032305384940.063623274626296161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.0715.3120.69167.679140060410.93591.73595.637.3659TT-5.9328.07103447.7049659910775.0707836981590.072386786515774161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.0818.0422.06167.871621010780.94751.81755.67.4175TT-5.9229.08103447.7783786383675.1692822756020.07252423589915161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022196-8925.8117.3721.59166.884835345310.57951.43955.476.9095TT-6.1928.81103447.4016365210174.6645484440320.068882505006015161114126WETL
2022-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.0817.221.64166.520955562450.5821.2625.516.772TT-5.9216.08103447.262473407874.4785744590910.07252423589915161114126WETL
2022-04-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022196-892619.4122.705167.423587334280.4931.3035.747.043TT-630103447.6074421569474.9400436834360.071430204280571161114126WETL
2022-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022196-8926.6520.4623.555178.712191883830.41092.05095.27.2509TT-5.352.65103451.8555942220880.7521036583970.080692626837703161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2022196-8928.3718.523.435177.71733033320.49522.03525.557.5852TT-3.638.37103451.486080879680.2369009765220.10952356632168161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022196-8928.4118.523.455178.302199550280.49522.12525.537.6552TT-3.5915.41103451.7034272036680.5397146148140.11027214049279161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022196-8924.518.3521.425176.610184959320.54261.46265.567.0226TT-7.57.5103451.0737636096879.6642208214020.053173972302494161114126WETL
2022-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2022196-8925.0418.621.82177.851904391650.5131.2835.777.053TT-6.961.04103451.5361192559880.306558711290.059267033351118161114126WETL
2022-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2022196-8925.0518.621.825173.379325862690.5131.1835.376.553TT-6.9522.05103449.8638938739377.9970986498270.059384808715816161114126WETL
2022-04-08 00:00:04FORECAST2022196-8927.3419.5123.425184.15099461990.75021.72025.276.9902TT-4.6618.34103453.8592615197383.5786344263120.09148461470324161115127.5WETL
2022-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2022196-8922.3817.1219.75186.954037798180.64231.57235.547.1123TT-9.6214.38103454.8811505361385.0418678110110.033889282435132161115127.5WETL
2022-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2022196-8922.4317.3819.905184.648721940630.42171.35175.636.9817TT-9.5713.43103454.0412467076983.8381359129060.034266833185522161114126WETL
2022-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2022196-8922.4619.3220.89179.146034682640.18330.84335.746.5833TT-9.5410.46103452.0164407794480.9769529769960.034495013538169161113124.5WETL
2022-04-07 08:00:04FORECAST2022196-8923.3419.7921.565174.481718130250.13090.69095.265.9509TF-8.666.34103450.2778264831578.5652488007350.041761083550316161113124.5WETL
2022-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022196-8923.4521.8722.66174.319161112480.03130.61135.345.9513TF-8.5514.45103450.2168614664378.4814256095240.042750460972633161113124.5WETL