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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 13, 2022

[ Tuesday, April 12, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 14, 2022 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/14/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.068
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 52

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 177 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-14 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022195-9025.8299614.5299220.17994177.060013333330.190000000000051.88000000000016.027.9000000000001TT-6.1700451.82996102450.68306339315 79.7979492134990.06799822678927416 1115127.5WETL
2022-04-14 00:00:01FORECAST2022195-8915.7915.7915.79180.017691821860.00271.69276.027.7127TT-16.2141.79103452.3390710270581.4290354871340.0077887333723588161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2022195-8922.9517.0620.005180.403117782470.25631.94636.027.9663TT-9.0548.95103452.4815028172381.6290738471240.039495034047235161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 08:00:01FORECAST2022195-8924.1514.7119.43180.0112241740.17591.86596.027.8859TT-7.8550.15103452.3366797578681.4256794620160.049900787336601161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 04:00:05FORECAST2022195-8925.4414.0319.735180.099709677260.20691.89696.027.9169TT-6.5651.44103452.3693919005181.4715961481580.063402489749876161115127.5WETL
2022-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2022195-9020.1313.1416.635173.865015391270.13131.50136.027.5213TT-11.8731.13102449.4834937096878.1494545519570.021841557418951161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022195-9024.311419.155171.84471473670.14121.81126.027.8312TT-7.6949.31102448.7199274903177.1101479362450.051439526356241161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2022195-9024.9514.8719.91171.933534823760.1551.8256.027.845TT-7.0549.95102448.7535791692677.1557891313830.057973734329403161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2022195-9024.5814.7919.685173.704521661860.15651.82656.027.8465TT-7.4249.58102449.4229787826978.0668035532950.054121183538139161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9024.3814.3719.375174.516556607610.18511.95516.027.9751TT-7.6246.38102449.7289072408678.4851402985790.052124444198714161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2022195-9023.7914.1518.97174.104331059490.10421.85426.027.8742TT-8.2145.79102449.5736830198478.2727253441220.046572385909049161115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2022195-9024.714.4919.595169.355255808020.0940.5646.026.584TT-7.341.7102447.7736395820175.8328192754990.055347887511921161113124.5WETL
2022-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2022195-9024.7814.319.54169.595302403870.17270.96276.026.9827TT-7.2245.78102447.8651464797475.9558249533850.056177774866417161113124.5WETL
2022-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2022195-9025.1314.3119.72168.954853317460.17310.85316.026.8731TT-6.8747.13102447.6208800549875.6277201315230.059924035935352161113124.5WETL
2022-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022195-9024.4415.6120.025170.461214403880.23180.92186.026.9418TT-7.5645.44102448.1947729832976.3998252922020.052717245475883161113124.5WETL
2022-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9025.4914.3219.905171.481090128580.21681.09686.027.1168TT-6.5146.49102448.5820801564376.9233441173730.063977912925768161114126WETL
2022-04-11 04:00:06FORECAST2022195-9025.4115.3320.37172.327329088980.22981.23986.027.2598TT-6.5948.41102448.9026864187177.3582009714020.06305916785843161114126WETL
2022-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2022195-9025.6415.0720.355159.730859872650.18391.24394.886.1239TT-6.3638.64102444.0584298000170.9298348256560.065728478955253161114126WETL
2022-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022195-9026.8113.420.105159.049898430010.25751.28755.126.4075TT-5.1947.81102443.7921086952670.5850898120190.080677223258986161114126WETL
2022-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022195-9026.3414.5620.45159.532652547870.28461.34465.126.4646TT-5.6647.34102443.980959284370.8294601153710.074390810155436161114126WETL
2022-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022195-9021.5214.6218.07160.680004397830.33671.25675.126.3767TT-10.4842.52102444.4288685143671.410832547410.029469265222984161114126WETL
2022-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9022.2515.2518.75161.5790088460.24931.16935.286.4493TT-9.7539.25102444.7789156248771.8669363422670.03428694767499161114126WETL
2022-04-10 04:00:06FORECAST2022195-9026.2814.2720.275162.195551155170.2091.0995.516.609TT-5.7247.28102445.0185182573972.1800238430160.073615886551442161114126WETL
2022-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022195-9025.6616.5221.09162.39189648890.27331.15335.016.1633TT-6.3442.66102445.094743864872.2797795734460.065964657149833161114126WETL
2022-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2022195-9025.8514.0819.965159.863762915120.31061.06065.396.4506TT-6.1554.85102444.1103539077770.9971523252630.068241150302005161114126WETL
2022-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2022195-9025.5216.7421.13159.88706417640.33011.16015.336.4901TT-6.4855.52102444.1194557099471.0089559170820.064325104456556161114126WETL
2022-04-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022195-9027.0216.7721.895161.794867025970.28591.12595.226.3459TT-4.9856.02102444.8628458081771.9765249823280.083611975459162161114126WETL
2022-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9022.4815.9519.215161.310884760820.37710.95715.256.2071TF-9.5243.48102444.6745992626471.7308530377190.035932266985856161113124.5WETL
2022-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2022195-9027.6819.1723.425163.126002648990.35111.14115.436.5711TT-4.3256.68102445.3794036005972.6529617715560.09335571873007161114126WETL
2022-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022195-902817.1922.595175.407292708841.151.994.876.86TT-429102450.0637609072578.9444658470990.098370366740426161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2022195-9028.8817.5323.205173.256334090571.05811.84815.267.1081TT-3.1232.88102449.2538568259977.8360763097210.11316826799526161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022195-9028.8818.123.49173.701105069361.06762.16765.017.1776TT-3.1239.88102449.4216902719978.0650442423830.11316826799526161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022195-9028.1418.3823.26171.45272628880.39651.48655.016.4965TT-3.8636.14102448.5713222858576.9087761408790.10062505060447161114126WETL
2022-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9029.2817.6823.48172.773294259580.31761.41765.146.5576TT-2.7229.28102449.0713677990577.5875395722970.12039381762048161114126WETL
2022-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2022195-9029.1717.7323.45168.092839708010.31460.98465.086.0646TF-2.8350.17102447.2914812524575.1864952609270.11837525589979161113124.5WETL
2022-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022195-9029.7218.324.01175.452064682510.56261.25265.016.2626TT-2.2843.72102450.0805720086678.9675656324020.12870927034418161114126WETL
2022-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2022195-9029.2719.0924.18178.370249606330.54761.21765.276.4876TT-2.7345.27102451.1721870246280.4756956150150.12020931945525161114126WETL
2022-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2022195-9029.0819.0824.08179.082183475450.54761.23765.346.5776TT-2.9244.08102451.4372769387380.84437325640.11674153724656161114126WETL
2022-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2022195-9025.8518.5922.22176.80993393970.3241.1045.326.424TT-6.1540.85102450.5895212447579.6687034852060.068241150302005161114126WETL
2022-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022195-9027.217.9622.58172.801260383860.25730.71735.125.8373TF-4.836.2102449.0819393100477.6019251284030.086190492361943161113124.5WETL
2022-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022195-9026.5919.3222.955173.934080632730.26690.70695.235.9369TF-5.4143.59102449.5095274975978.1850264009480.077686588341661161113124.5WETL
2022-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2022195-9025.2517.1521.2183.663126502260.61031.39035.196.5803TT-6.7527.25102453.1315816714483.2235630066910.061252434121244161114126WETL
2022-04-06 20:00:04FORECAST2022195-9027.9919.9423.965182.014189467510.57971.15975.326.4797TT-4.0145.99102452.5239765670382.3657848094620.098210740424317161114126WETL
2022-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2022195-9027.9519.9323.94180.93181551660.52591.11595.26.3159TT-4.0547.95102452.1237545670281.8035717519930.09757412627373161114126WETL
2022-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2022195-9030.5127.328.905184.182132968150.58421.81425.136.9442TT-1.4951.51102453.3223007263383.4938682698070.14461793356146161115127.5WETL
2022-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2022195-9030.5727.6529.11183.516161136240.36941.59945.246.8394TT-1.4345.57102453.0775306869583.1470491287550.14587794976912161115127.5WETL
2022-04-06 04:00:07FORECAST2022195-9030.6528.5529.6182.975118196240.15841.41845.316.7284TT-1.3549.65102452.8783717278782.8654735954290.14756938387754161114126WETL