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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 11, 2022

[ Sunday, April 10, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 12, 2022 ]

DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.046
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 100
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-12 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022193-9225.8200618.3399822.08002171.193883333331.373.254.187.43TT-6.1799486.82006100447.33314145797 76.580697629890.0460909586935416 1115127.5WETL
2022-04-12 00:00:01FORECAST2022193-9120.6820.6820.68166.05389092030.011.894.186.07TT-11.3281.68101445.9330885871274.0489244499970.012867337081245161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2022193-9124.741720.87166.07827508160.21082.09084.186.2708TT-7.2685.74101445.9425004832974.0613612658410.036037514763758161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2022193-9124.9515.2120.08166.994037337470.36632.24634.186.4263TT-7.0585.95101446.2955483571474.5286954658960.037837834793445161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2022193-9125.7514.8120.28167.905472846450.52572.40574.186.5857TT-6.2586.75101446.6461137216574.9943269194650.045377046987559161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2022193-9224.813.9119.355155.595694765730.60511.34514.185.5251TF-7.279.8100441.2480246451468.6562929586650.03654460685394161114126WETL
2022-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2022193-9225.1515.4720.31154.299152369230.57051.55054.185.7305TF-6.8585.15100440.7312851884468.004463727180.039619801840212161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2022193-9225.3216.7321.025154.185229734890.55061.53064.185.7106TF-6.6885.32100440.6857997198167.9472412707050.041187431234707161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022193-9225.0615.5920.325154.877467192380.42531.40534.185.5853TF-6.9485.06100440.9619839216968.2950751979180.038809671551412161114126WETL
2022-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9223.7814.6719.225155.855361303070.36161.50164.185.6816TF-8.2280.78100441.3513108610968.7869680158390.028676932013112161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2022193-9224.5413.3218.93157.315985213840.38921.75924.185.9392TT-7.4684.54100441.9310280718969.5228150776930.034388556875504161115127.5WETL
2022-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2022193-9224.7414.3219.53157.183494583910.41121.28124.185.4612TF-7.2679.74100441.8785315937269.4560117775090.036037514763758161114126WETL
2022-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2022193-9225.4115.6220.515154.127263154610.26241.51244.185.6924TF-6.5991.41100440.6626505649867.9181283060380.042037430281898161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2022193-9225.9215.1720.545153.677691605050.29151.48154.185.6615TF-6.0891.92100440.4829968355267.6924101449580.047124880449432161114126WETL
2022-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2022193-9226.3314.0320.18155.346795300960.2681.3484.185.528TF-5.6793.33100441.1489572272468.531076755610.051561857387219161114126WETL
2022-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9226.9515.5221.235156.025122196330.28011.39014.185.5701TF-5.0584.95100441.4187989569468.8724220470140.058892923614205161114126WETL
2022-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2022193-9227.2316.8422.035157.239713878340.32831.61834.185.7983TF-4.7791.23100441.9008094019369.4843568329660.062460152242566161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022193-9226.9617.1622.06163.827895054770.34871.59873.665.2587TF-5.0463.96100444.4895761709472.8197916378710.059017520441984161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2022193-9227.616.8322.215162.13788596540.30931.59934.015.6093TF-4.468.6100443.8296276019871.9615975481980.067428798323373161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2022193-9227.118.2222.66162.079951256810.54461.58464.015.5946TF-4.974.1100443.8069538375571.9322094454230.060783596413379161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2022193-9227.891822.945164.416576920320.57491.61494.015.6249TF-4.1169.89100444.7187919941573.1191414718160.071531691191347161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9222.2317.0819.655166.399011740740.65431.80434.035.8343TT-9.7760.23100445.4881795592974.1287928208460.019445481603323161115127.5WETL
2022-04-08 04:00:07FORECAST2022193-9229.1715.922.535162.38811921710.31111.22114.215.4311TF-2.8383.17100443.9275224549772.0885554401720.091948114198548161114126WETL
2022-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022193-9230.8215.7323.275167.055782657670.28031.14034.195.3303TF-1.1874.82100445.7422207185874.4638155457080.12422060663249161114126WETL
2022-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2022193-9228.6314.4521.54170.20932419120.28991.37994.225.5999TF-3.3776.63100446.9561356283176.0761017884070.082864346637181161114126WETL
2022-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2022193-9228.4614.9921.725170.738184177360.30991.42994.265.6899TF-3.5476.46100447.1587630545476.3470752429270.080148698220568161114126WETL
2022-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2022193-9228.2417.1322.685170.532573905510.43511.51514.285.7951TF-3.7677.24100447.0800178693576.2417061889810.07673454449678161115127.5WETL
2022-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9228.3314.6321.48167.333836403570.16081.05084.275.3208TF-3.6769.33100445.8496452023674.6057315908790.078117677778672161114126WETL
2022-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022193-9232.3914.6323.51168.326424938240.12881.11884.285.3988TF0.3979.39100446.2325079023775.1127227464320.16157525702918161114126WETL
2022-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2022193-9227.4514.9621.205172.015303359460.26491.24494.255.4949TF-4.5564.45100447.6469576974677.0021272262670.065378985418064161114126WETL
2022-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2022193-9229.2514.8122.03171.959505059710.14011.21014.295.5001TF-2.7578.25100447.6256611730476.9734871473430.093354080805541161114126WETL
2022-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2022193-9229.3514.8722.11171.113217461820.14791.21794.175.3879TF-2.6580.35100447.3022884558876.539333755720.095133718088359161114126WETL
2022-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2022193-9229.9419.8624.9175.91070995650.82781.91784.085.9978TT-2.0678.94100449.1262807697979.0061229103370.10614243154336161115127.5WETL
2022-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9229.9819.8124.895176.97011127970.82781.98784.126.1078TT-2.0272.98100449.5260747603879.5526794734680.10692068527357161115127.5WETL
2022-04-06 04:00:06FORECAST2022193-9230.520.425.45178.093799798150.87012.08014.146.2201TT-1.577.5100449.9489552208180.133119150480.11741322596668161115127.5WETL
2022-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2022193-9230.4717.3823.925163.338103683340.10751.30753.464.7675TF-1.5367.47100444.2986040854872.5708914604780.1167888059184161114126WETL
2022-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2022193-9226.417.3821.89162.991785026040.10751.37753.584.9575TF-5.671.4100444.1634292668272.3949901794860.052351457940651161114126WETL
2022-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2022193-9231.4918.3224.905162.332207626630.21781.38783.444.8278TF-0.5175.49100443.905654433172.0601848620690.13935245821307161114126WETL
2022-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2022193-9231.2317.9424.585164.215924438560.04081.46083.545.0008TF-0.7778.23100444.6407021748873.017083950660.13333824497364161114126WETL
2022-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022193-9230.6519.5125.08166.14850879220.12591.57593.65.1759TF-1.3572.65100445.3911724904174.0010791384910.1205706713828161115127.5WETL
2022-04-05 04:00:07FORECAST2022193-9230.6519.5125.08168.216733662970.12661.56663.755.3166TF-1.3572.65100446.190245049575.0566656145050.1205706713828161115127.5WETL
2022-04-05 00:00:05FORECAST2022193-9228.918.1523.525153.712576002190.25371.07372.453.5237TF-3.161.9100440.4969443666167.7099200396840.08731836994595161114126DRYL
2022-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2022193-9229.5414.3121.925146.448730476260.10570.83573.334.1657TF-2.4664.54100437.5658753931364.0809669510580.098583404502289161113124.5WETL
2022-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2022193-9229.5713.5221.545145.509015727110.03120.76123.274.0312TF-2.4364.57100437.1827207159163.6140273842740.099136330799157161113124.5WETL
2022-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2022193-9220.7116.418.555151.237003546630.00530.80533.274.0753TF-11.2946.71100439.5040829252766.4692805481270.012973613572866161113124.5WETL
2022-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2022193-9219.1317.2318.18154.685724050710.00520.85523.744.5952TF-12.8750.13100440.8855321639868.1986977662680.0083070985403431161113124.5WETL
2022-04-04 04:00:07FORECAST2022193-9218.8918.0818.485157.258688594380.00370.85374.285.1337TF-13.1148.89100441.9083277232369.4939240966880.0077457206997966161113124.5WETL