MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 26, 2022

[ Friday, March 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 27, 2022 ]

DAY 177 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/27/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.861
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -37

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 139 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-27 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022177-10845.3900231.8099238.59997139.482774782610.0399999999999640.0399999999999645.445.48TF13.39002-36.6099884424.47357534351 59.2067521108070.861068832304317 5111123.5WETL
2022-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2022177-10739.1139.1139.11139.9611320.00250.00254.954.9525TF7.11-40.8985425.3411363638759.5312269316530.62405098445981163111122.5WETL
2022-03-26 12:00:01FORECAST2022177-10743.1436.8339.985140.407741333330.06820.06824.955.0182TF11.14-36.8685425.5367740319959.7486572961050.79089323926122164111123WETL
2022-03-26 08:00:01FORECAST2022177-10739.4630.9335.195140.665786182110.11140.11144.955.0614TF7.46-40.5485425.6497097211659.8743510561150.64019610087894163112125WETL
2022-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2022177-10742.8431.8537.345140.825502987480.16210.16214.955.1121TF10.84-37.1685425.7195741647359.9521731633620.78017620592048164112126WETL
2022-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2022177-10843.0531.7137.38142.545718645590.16520.16525.445.6052TF11.05-47.9584425.8175768050660.69847249760.78771080819608174112126WETL
2022-03-25 20:00:01FORECAST2022177-10840.1431.1935.665142.686442611430.15530.15535.445.5953TF8.14-39.8684425.8790747609760.7671701602920.67083732107459173112125WETL
2022-03-25 16:00:01FORECAST2022177-10840.3531.8336.09142.751523540780.18320.18325.445.6232TF8.35-39.6584425.9075084262660.7989457153060.68008423094497173112125WETL
2022-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2022177-10843.7232.838.26142.154177569190.17030.17035.445.6103TF11.72-36.2884425.6463532405260.5074072802290.81072032022357174112126WETL
2022-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2022177-10844.1633.2738.715142.095235644840.13670.14675.445.5867TF12.16-42.8484425.6205627879960.4786541646480.82496271158693174112126WETL
2022-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10844.3733.3838.875141.48207890530.17280.18285.445.6228TF12.37-38.6384425.3520426262460.1796912573780.83151454385114174112126WETL
2022-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2022177-10843.2933.9938.6400.26020.27025.445.7102TF11.29-50.7184350.739062811900.79613453584361741125230WETM
2022-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2022177-10842.7532.6637.70500.25340.25345.445.6934TF10.75-41.2584350.739062811900.776900766684751741125230WETM
2022-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2022177-10841.7833.737.7400.4530.4535.445.893TF9.78-46.2284350.739062811900.739888489161351741125230WETM
2022-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2022177-10842.5832.5637.570.026559660498640.52140.52145.445.9614TF10.58-41.4284350.755736106360.00931595326893580.770638761991951741135245WETM
2022-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2022177-10843.3634.7339.04500.43540.44545.445.8854TF11.36-38.6484350.739062811900.798553491403381741125230WETM
2022-03-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10843.0135.839.405NAN0.46240.47245.445.9124TF11.01-39.9984NANNAN0.786287374291521741125230WETM
2022-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022177-10838.0833.8935.98500.49970.50975.445.9497TF6.08-18.9284350.739062811900.575365363738411731135237.5WETM
2022-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2022177-10845.2334.8640.04500.45250.45255.566.0125TF13.236.2384350.739062811900.856681101531541751125235WETMH
2022-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2022177-10844.2333.0438.63500.50020.53025.566.0902TF12.235.2384350.739062811900.827164347927281741135245WETM
2022-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2022177-10841.7933.1437.46500.43970.47975.566.0397TF9.792.7984350.739062811900.740285547729771741125230WETM
2022-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2022177-10841.7935.2138.500.45080.48085.586.0608TF9.791.7984350.739062811900.740285547729771741125230WETM
2022-03-23 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10846.534.4340.465NAN0.31390.32395.65.9239TF14.53.584NANNAN0.888990554689741751125235WETMH
2022-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2022177-10846.634.0540.325149.408913003430.12360.15365.615.7636TF14.651.684428.7914099956264.0652584726540.8912936196143175112127WETL
2022-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2022177-10840.9132.6336.77150.642259099270.12390.14395.625.7639TF8.9150.9184429.3203473871164.6737870076790.70419005297598174112126WETL
2022-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022177-10843.9934.339.145150.548305020040.13250.19255.655.8425TF11.9957.9984429.2801121714364.627393266220.81954237106058174112126WETL
2022-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2022177-10845.3335.4840.405149.293537895140.11460.14465.645.7846TF13.3361.3384428.741844991864.0083868825140.85943390059617175112127WETL
2022-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2022177-10840.4633.1936.825149.870267915840.16350.18355.635.8135TF8.4650.4684428.9894623899264.2927656614470.68488405715945173112125WETL
2022-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10845.7835.9640.87149.20156402250.21640.24645.695.9364TF13.7861.7884428.7023227237863.9630570504680.87137692954623175112127WETL
2022-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022177-10839.8333.1936.51144.954653171420.47870.50874.885.3887TF7.8357.8384426.8672817565161.8763987772420.65699549057917173113127.5WETL
2022-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2022177-10839.9232.136.01145.23923944610.44090.47095.135.6009TF7.9258.9284426.9908679369562.0158289095910.66103685683523173112125WETL
2022-03-21 16:00:03FORECAST2022177-10837.3832.1334.755145.364202572740.36080.36085.075.4308TF5.3858.3884427.0451069709562.0770714374210.54155862245032173112125WETL
2022-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022177-10833.3327.530.415147.675686423040.39790.46795.095.5579TF1.3343.3384428.0452859360263.2118814207470.34774468115325172112124WETL
2022-03-21 08:00:03FORECAST2022177-10840.7731.436.085145.807248567760.22560.29565.315.6056TF8.7758.7784427.2372681309162.2942905517730.69824198188466173112125WETL
2022-03-21 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10840.8430.5535.695147.063386296560.22330.29335.786.0733TF8.8458.8484427.7809151692362.9109099778280.70122273820023174112126WETL
2022-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022177-10844.1731.2137.69143.0001856290.31630.33635.585.9163TF12.1762.1784426.0161048785660.920382078580.82527831321934174112126WETL
2022-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022177-10840.9131.4336.17142.342328273130.31890.33895.776.1089TF8.9158.9184425.7286540710960.5992078330660.70419005297598174112126WETL
2022-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2022177-10843.5733.8638.715141.867521674910.31760.33765.786.1176TF11.5766.5784425.5208886614960.367593895310.8057066704749174112126WETL
2022-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022177-10842.8631.8337.345143.281243597470.02440.03445.825.8544TF10.8658.8684426.1387668094361.0576924535480.78090032165734174111123WETL
2022-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022177-10843.9632.4438.2142.504691108320.02440.03445.976.0044TF11.9659.9684425.7996431708460.6784466240950.81857504881573174111123WETL
2022-03-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022177-10843.9632.4538.205143.715367852980.0250.0555.895.945TF11.9664.9684426.3280593485361.2698938753230.81857504881573174111123WETL
2022-03-20 00:00:04FORECAST2022177-10844.7532.2438.495143.797814979620.02170.28175.495.7717TF12.7546.7584426.3639854449961.3102094929910.84296478710642174112126WETL
2022-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022177-10844.7932.338.545143.130911215520.0070.2575.675.927TF12.7957.7984426.0731682467260.9842408156350.8441396580217174112126WETL
2022-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2022177-10839.7532.3336.04142.758632344010.00650.25655.45.6565TF7.7553.7584425.910613956660.8024167492420.65338801591264173112125WETL
2022-03-19 12:00:04FORECAST2022177-10840.1333.0836.605143.8802554130800.015.45.41TF8.1361.1384426.3999011031461.3505266788320.67039431782023173111122.5WETL
2022-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022177-10836.6632.2334.445144.7943560304900.015.345.35TF4.6655.6684426.7976307965361.7978881065220.50647183414038173111122.5WETL
2022-03-19 04:00:06FORECAST2022177-10833.5432.8633.2145.2163143965900.075.635.7TF1.5459.5484426.9809156723962.0045948916240.35729105744555172111122WETL