MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 24, 2022

[ Wednesday, March 23, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, March 25, 2022 ]

DAY 175 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/25/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.909
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -57

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 143 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.51 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-25 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022175-11045.6699223.2399434.45493142.5489275005.475.47TF13.66992-57.3300882424.50618128481 60.512900859270.9086735751056817 5111123.5WETL
2022-03-25 00:00:01FORECAST2022175-10934.0134.0134.010005.475.47TF2.01-71.9983349.798064486100.418502417445371621115210WETM
2022-03-24 12:00:01FORECAST2022175-10944.2135.2339.720005.475.47TF12.21-61.7983349.798064486100.872813827931241651115217.5WETM
2022-03-24 08:00:01FORECAST2022175-1094524.4434.7200.00610.00615.475.4761TF13-6183349.798064486100.89327313915761651115217.5WETM
2022-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2022175-10944.7224.1834.45NAN0.00250.00255.475.4725TF12.72-61.2883NANNAN0.886311228998611651115217.5WETM
2022-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.625.5335.06500.00080.00085.475.4708TF12.6-32.482348.8534835640400.883230836014481751115217.5WETM
2022-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2022175-11044.5927.7936.1900.00170.12175.475.5917TF12.59-15.4182348.8534835640400.882971499421271751125235WETM
2022-03-23 16:00:01FORECAST2022175-11045.1628.3136.73500.00190.12195.475.5919TF13.16-14.8482348.8534835640400.897110933407911751125235WETM
2022-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.7827.3536.06500.00270.12275.475.5927TF12.78-15.2282348.8534835640400.887829582958141751125235WETM
2022-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2022175-11044.3927.535.94500.00370.14375.475.6137TF12.39-15.6182348.8534835640400.877699143345671751125235WETM
2022-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2022175-11043.9127.2535.58NAN0.00230.16235.475.6323TF11.91-15.0982NANNAN0.864374068246551751125235WETM
2022-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2022175-11043.6727.5635.615150.867857003430.00230.17235.475.6423TF11.6727.6782428.1315694481764.5912923981610.85735258282542175112127WETL
2022-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2022175-11043.2427.4135.325151.946441765940.0020.1825.475.652TF11.2433.2482428.5960314279865.1236419304840.84416907017003174112126WETL
2022-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2022175-11043.6628.0335.845151.946032926630.00180.21185.475.6818TF11.6634.6682428.5958556138765.123439989320.85705479663194175112127WETL
2022-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.0128.3936.2150.981699228470.00190.20195.475.6719TF12.0135.0182428.1806524637464.647442485730.86722881586884175112127WETL
2022-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.728.3936.545150.925420743170.00330.19335.475.6633TF12.735.782428.1563897982264.6196832741740.88580188033323175112127WETL
2022-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2022175-11044.9628.0636.51150.951061355840.00250.25255.475.7225TF12.9635.9682428.1674443568564.6323301636830.89229780321866175112127WETL
2022-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022175-11044.7727.4336.1145.766458504980.00550.29554.624.9155TF12.7738.7782425.9174724897862.0844815802260.8875775323764175112127WETL
2022-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.5627.7736.165145.771669577970.0060.3164.855.166TF12.5639.5682425.9197488570262.0870328971160.88219104931057175112127WETL
2022-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2022175-11044.7327.636.165145.739033757370.0030.2534.855.103TF12.7341.7382425.9054919658962.0710548710660.88656529707786175112127WETL
2022-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022175-11037.8127.0932.45146.198341120540.01570.28574.855.1357TF5.8133.8182426.1060307584662.2959948383420.61616977818867173112125WETL
2022-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2022175-11038.0926.932.495146.391910451470.01630.28635.075.3563TF6.0939.0982426.1904752684662.3908378907680.63019301386919173112125WETL
2022-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2022175-11040.6126.233.405147.53469401390.02340.36345.475.8334TF8.6138.6182426.6881687278562.9513084126140.74689051960429174112126WETL
2022-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2022175-11042.2424.0333.135144.220564295670.01880.29885.335.6288TF10.2440.2482425.2408432875561.3284743804970.81050921989704174112126WETL
2022-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2022175-11042.0326.4434.235142.903064400260.02150.30155.525.8215TF10.0342.0382424.6620802378360.6855126005760.80291129182479174112126WETL
2022-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2022175-11041.5826.3933.985143.033452341570.0250.3455.495.835TF9.5845.5882424.719444602960.7490884381490.78602244689902174112126WETL
2022-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2022175-11040.8626.1533.505144.197009074580.01320.36325.55.8632TF8.8637.8682425.23051273661.3169681037820.75732194462349174112126WETL
2022-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2022175-11035.232530.115143.498367108320.01330.37335.646.0133TF3.2338.2382424.9238299631960.9758757451330.4821227438969172112124WETL
2022-03-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022175-11039.6725.5332.6144.707021186320.02640.25645.695.9464TF7.6742.6782425.4540492824661.5661881233210.70566012966097174112126WETL
2022-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022175-11043.4823.1433.31144.280368354850.020.245.35.54TF11.4831.4882425.2670686204661.3576893097450.85162299835153175112127WETL
2022-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022175-11042.5423.933.22143.320023579240.01390.21395.55.7139TF10.5442.5482424.8454552942160.8888606702970.8210464089948174112126WETL
2022-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022175-11042.626.6434.62142.785084197560.01140.19145.255.4414TF10.643.682424.6101583004860.6279972040740.82310884283391174112126WETL
2022-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022175-11045.7327.7136.72144.987419413080.01110.20115.245.4411TF13.7341.7382425.5768235451861.7032854078320.90997000967311175112127WETL
2022-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2022175-11047.9730.7239.345145.814381363820.01280.15285.235.3828TF15.9739.9782425.9384056274762.1079451156620.94916279754592175112127WETL
2022-03-19 04:00:06FORECAST2022175-11045.929.6537.775146.199221063250.06530.20535.525.7253TF13.945.982426.1064147269162.296425923130.91356444918743175112127WETL
2022-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2022175-11050.431.8241.11146.261632664910.01280.16285.465.6228TF18.449.482426.1336462269562.3270028306040.97492373605603175112127WETL
2022-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2022175-11050.1532.0441.095145.856162985270.0060.1165.585.696TF18.1560.1582425.9566541381162.1284031706270.97291791428329175112127WETL
2022-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022175-11049.4132.2340.82145.939532106360.0060.0865.745.826TF17.4161.4182425.9930605879862.1692279427680.96618479713398175111123.5WETL
2022-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022175-11044.4729.8337.15145.75845234110.01670.06675.635.6967TF12.4758.4782425.9139750766662.0805618376220.87982769365879175111123.5WETL
2022-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022175-11043.1929.7736.48145.672952115250.01450.08455.595.6745TF11.1960.1982425.8766207169862.0387045767090.84258570220308174111123WETL
2022-03-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022175-11041.6132.1236.865146.349692624380.01310.09315.495.5831TF9.6156.6182426.172061305562.3701501771590.7871738794886174112126WETL
2022-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2022175-11049.0635.542.28148.439201662950.00450.03455.195.2245TF17.0658.0682427.0810677461563.39557274160.96255190822394175111123.5WETL
2022-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022175-11052.4739.0545.76147.506299018760.01220.02225.335.3522TF20.4772.4782426.6758199223962.9373710775470.98723365970399175111123.5WETL
2022-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2022175-11045.7331.5738.65148.600639039880.10130.40135.085.4813TF13.7355.7382427.1510978505163.4749261071720.90997000967311175112127WETL
2022-03-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022175-11050.737.1843.94147.937711681140.00710.04715.45.4471TF18.773.782426.8633425907163.1491861034310.97716525310066175111123.5WETL
2022-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022175-11037.3734.7936.08149.16728224940.02710.18715.445.6271TF5.3746.3782427.3966754944663.7536005259370.59382944197183173112125WETL
2022-03-17 04:00:07FORECAST2022175-11040.7139.5940.15148.9398836751600.075.645.71TF8.7156.7182427.2981656271763.641739083120.75109114309018174111123WETL