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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 21, 2022

[ Sunday, March 20, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 22, 2022 ]

DAY 172 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/22/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.168
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -43

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-22 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022172-11329.0600625.1200427.09005153.0784340.849999999999911.63999999999993.845.4799999999999TF-2.93994-42.9399479427.14658988316 65.3869310677550.1675544153774717 1115127.5WETL
2022-03-22 00:00:01FORECAST2022172-11232.6932.6932.69147.9962280.00430.79433.844.6343TF0.69-7.3180425.5841253801562.9848452529410.28430684483647162113126WETL
2022-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2022172-11235.0931.2533.17148.083589944330.2321.0223.844.862TF3.09-4.9180425.6223579167263.0276867208790.37835199082258162114128WETL
2022-03-21 08:00:01FORECAST2022172-11238.1927.5832.885148.389098492730.45251.24253.845.0825TF6.19-1.8180425.7559920830863.1775478430850.510520208265531631141210WETL
2022-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2022172-11238.4125.4331.92149.65873221030.85011.64013.845.4801TF6.41-1.5980426.3102398995663.8010500316380.520031075809691631151212.5WETL
2022-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2022172-11338.3825.531.94146.609017505330.97721.49723.845.3372TF6.38-36.6279424.3175352621962.2087769550720.51873468967251731141210WETL
2022-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2022172-11338.2629.0333.645145.07986687220.98731.68733.845.5273TF6.26-30.7479423.6420225622961.4619282348060.513547300591181731151212.5WETL
2022-03-20 16:00:01FORECAST2022172-11337.7527.4532.6145.347419945330.96441.66443.845.5044TF5.75-31.2579423.7604054058961.5924816007340.491485930096321721151210WETL
2022-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2022172-11335.3928.6532.02146.259659204490.97291.67293.845.5129TF3.39-33.6179424.1634350139962.0379994521520.390783442835151721151210WETL
2022-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2022172-11338.0829.3333.705145.541823498931.07251.81253.845.6525TF6.08-31.9279423.8463717039761.6873738212030.505762191432711731151212.5WETL
2022-03-20 04:00:06FORECAST2022172-11338.129.3233.71146.749373303791.05051.86053.845.7005TF6.1-31.979424.3794070285862.2774120244770.506627366222971731151212.5WETL
2022-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022172-11335.3829.3632.37146.429662181651.1291.4693.845.309TF3.38-45.6279424.2384395816162.1210913924050.39036717920979172114128WETL
2022-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022172-11338.1728.9633.565145.41190822191.10111.67113.845.5111TF6.17-31.8379423.7889271742361.6239565837180.509655205794871731151212.5WETL
2022-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.2229.3233.77145.080565287190.91011.42013.845.2601TF6.22-31.7879423.6423316911561.4622689613360.511817617929181731141210WETL
2022-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022172-11337.8126.6732.24147.312306171520.87311.41313.845.2531TF5.81-32.1979424.6273380646462.5528324337770.49408133865971172114128WETL
2022-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2022172-11335.4126.1230.765148.178113363820.67761.39763.845.2376TF3.41-33.5979425.0079719966462.9768794550460.39161634509378172114128WETL
2022-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2022172-11335.4226.6631.04148.608326396590.82231.69233.845.5323TF3.42-34.5879425.1967950359263.1877840994810.392032982822981721151210WETL
2022-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2022172-11335.8126.6231.215149.059691331570.74411.69413.785.4741TF3.81-38.1979425.3946800939563.4091997088980.408373900748541721151210WETL
2022-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2022172-11339.3426.5332.935149.18793231860.76661.77663.815.5866TF7.34-26.6679425.4508614647463.4721343250930.560046456485641731151212.5WETL
2022-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2022172-11338.6526.7732.71149.199688106360.93751.93753.815.7475TF6.65-26.3579425.4560106675763.4779040945790.530393390320111731151212.5WETL
2022-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022172-11339.0626.9232.99149.216775007770.8081.8283.815.638TF7.06-27.9479425.4634947001163.4862905626850.548044352240631731151212.5WETL
2022-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.8927.0132.95149.357048115250.78481.80483.85.6048TF6.89-28.1179425.5249217956963.5551462188770.540735159721831731151212.5WETL
2022-03-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022172-11338.9226.6232.77149.953373957710.60041.64043.865.5004TF6.92-29.0879425.7858151153663.8480195598830.542026089740691731151212.5WETL
2022-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2022172-11337.5727.3432.455152.057041662950.43391.42393.785.2039TF5.57-33.4379426.7030229404664.8831993369660.48370230603215172114128WETL
2022-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.3927.8133.1151.798397685430.38551.34553.995.3355TF6.39-25.6179426.5905171584564.7557569724510.519166841077851731141210WETL
2022-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2022172-11340.1428.5534.345150.906424373210.20621.10623.985.0862TF8.14-24.8679426.2019563040164.3166132867070.593999137257351731141210WETL
2022-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2022172-11339.6828.8634.27151.799693014470.40791.35794.055.4079TF7.68-24.3279426.5910807889864.7563951064770.574545564944761731141210WETL
2022-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022172-11340.3527.6634.005151.784011582730.42811.37814.075.4481TF8.35-23.6579426.5842572755164.7486698473180.602806583797171731141210WETL
2022-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2022172-11339.1928.6733.93151.746798341830.48461.48464.175.6546TF7.19-24.8179426.5680634666264.7303379059330.553622900766621731141210WETL
2022-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022172-11339.5128.9634.235148.18627163170.45341.32343.945.2634TF7.51-31.4979425.011554628262.9808776807440.567307337711741731141210WETL
2022-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2022172-11340.129.5334.815147.74411810260.51.363.945.3TF8.1-19.979424.8172797363662.7642543493940.592315973958641731141210WETL
2022-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022172-11339.7129.5734.64147.697568402510.50781.31783.915.2278TF7.71-21.2979424.7968138767462.7414564747260.575820367884631731141210WETL
2022-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2022172-11340.8825.132.99148.451195878630.11040.93043.94.8304TF8.88-22.1279425.1278534412663.1107382446710.6247937447629173113127.5WETL
2022-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022172-11340.9225.0232.97149.570024434640.11041.06044.045.1004TF8.92-29.0879425.6181445751963.6597162839370.626437804703661731141210WETL
2022-03-16 04:00:05FORECAST2022172-11340.6828.9634.82149.844407545650.12681.05684.065.1168TF8.68-22.3279425.7381716728263.7944841038840.616539964603321731141210WETL
2022-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022172-11339.3124.0331.67142.544064917570.3071.2573.064.317TF7.31-29.6979422.5160155366360.2271503473670.558762953551641731141210WETL
2022-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022172-11339.3523.7431.545141.101212350120.3071.3273.454.777TF7.35-24.6579421.8720810872459.5266620980780.560474151298571731141210WETL
2022-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022172-11339.5325.5532.54141.271130204970.30751.30753.444.7475TF7.53-23.4779421.9480368225459.6090760496880.568160115917561731141210WETL
2022-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2022172-11340.1524.8132.48140.379088122910.30460.91463.494.4046TF8.15-28.8579421.5489151798359.1766523121490.59441965810403173113127.5WETL
2022-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.925.0331.965141.266594402910.3790.9393.74.639TF6.9-27.179421.9460096793459.6068758092990.54116551813424173113127.5WETL
2022-03-15 04:00:08FORECAST2022172-11338.9725.2432.105142.272003124740.3791.0793.874.949TF6.97-22.0379422.3947768368760.0949510100080.54417664830291731141210WETL
2022-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.3322.0730.2143.005074714590.6831.6232.844.463TF6.33-23.6779422.72126383160.4512859175960.516573612536891731151212.5WETL
2022-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2022172-11338.3620.729.53144.673783049830.67381.63383.725.3538TF6.36-21.6479423.4621909365961.2638771413650.517870321318331731151212.5WETL
2022-03-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022172-11337.721.0229.36144.716135053670.66341.52343.955.4734TF5.7-18.379423.4809549158461.2845270642590.489323360282121721151210WETL
2022-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022172-11330.1122.4926.3150.464233042170.9712.2114.036.241TT-1.89-22.8979426.009002563164.0991178397180.19767611938971171115127.5WETL
2022-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022172-11323.2921.5222.405152.647277753620.57551.80554.035.8355TT-8.71-32.7179426.95948909765.1742037217330.055834852293228171115127.5WETL
2022-03-14 04:00:07FORECAST2022172-11321.8621.521.68148.907555512530.2971.5274.195.717TF-10.14-36.1479425.3280068478263.3345537907240.040372757817156171115127.5WETL