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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 20, 2022

[ Saturday, March 19, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, March 21, 2022 ]

DAY 171 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/21/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.124
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 148 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-21 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022171-11428.1499818.5100823.33003148.203443750.279999999999970.849999999999974.034.88TF-3.85002-37.8500278424.36089814999 62.8917464986710.1242875541987817 1113124.5WETL
2022-03-21 00:00:01FORECAST2022171-11325.1725.1725.17146.025810914460.00560.57563.784.3556TF-6.83-42.8379424.0602092437461.9237359313710.070019830648258161113124.5WETL
2022-03-20 12:00:01FORECAST2022171-11331.324.7928.045145.733648566940.19430.76433.784.5443TF-0.7-36.779423.9311561839661.7810341318880.20781795821435161113124.5WETL
2022-03-20 08:00:01FORECAST2022171-11330.0820.5325.305145.747939329310.22610.79613.784.5761TF-1.92-37.9279423.9374708837761.7880127857890.17217967880293161113124.5WETL
2022-03-20 04:00:05FORECAST2022171-11329.6919.3524.52146.718417195280.30020.87023.784.6502TF-2.31-38.3179424.3657628255362.2622730336290.16166099068904161113124.5WETL
2022-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022171-11429.7618.5924.175146.425646281990.33680.39684.034.4268TF-2.24-47.2478423.575492057862.0223151737730.16351753714941171112123WETL
2022-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.6320.7125.17145.55239017980.36930.62934.034.6593TF-2.37-36.3778423.1883988680961.5960829516120.16008061577586171113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.8220.0324.925145.327562856750.3110.5714.034.601TF-2.18-36.1878423.0885993233361.4864350121340.16511981073804171113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.8520.1224.985146.576215661870.34030.60034.034.6303TF-2.15-36.1578423.6421490605962.0958630041630.16592473623079171113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.620.1224.86147.288119466380.33340.78344.034.8134TF-2.4-35.478423.9569636060862.4438239042140.15929421940985171113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2022171-11429.4620.8825.17147.512156804980.37050.93054.034.9605TF-2.54-35.5478424.0559185747662.553403154880.15565778920798171113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.4720.925.185148.054645917170.35230.95234.034.9823TF-2.53-39.5378424.295297258662.8188899999430.15591570884446171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.8318.6824.255148.336012252230.40221.04224.035.0722TF-2.17-32.1778424.4193230926762.9566699103560.16538783862949171114126WETL
2022-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.4620.3224.89148.383769261560.39761.02764.035.0576TF-2.54-30.5478424.4403655088962.9800612609620.15565778920798171114126WETL
2022-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022171-11428.8321.0324.93148.539367091360.41421.05424.035.0842TF-3.17-33.1778424.508906418163.0562842839910.13997425687745171114126WETL
2022-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022171-11428.992124.995148.62742567360.46071.04074.035.0707TF-3.01-33.0178424.5476842588963.0994293870880.14385206755895171114126WETL
2022-03-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022171-11429.0820.2424.66149.244432551570.40931.11934.035.1493TF-2.92-33.9278424.8191487947163.4018927989070.14606480198132171114126WETL
2022-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2022171-11429.9921.2825.635151.713866948670.38281.11283.915.0228TF-2.01-37.0178425.9013771726764.6151448696290.16971443450321171114126WETL
2022-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022171-11429.9821.0525.515151.778510466830.35221.10224.15.2022TF-2.02-30.0278425.9296160883664.6469626935990.16944191931756171114126WETL
2022-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2022171-11429.4321.2225.325151.067444101330.38931.02934.15.1293TF-2.57-30.5778425.6187382494264.2971349489730.15488571509709171114126WETL
2022-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2022171-11429.518.223.85151.993337901860.35571.14574.15.2457TF-2.5-29.578426.0234281406764.7527228674950.15669115264315171114126WETL
2022-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022171-11429.5318.6924.11151.955537453070.32931.16934.15.2693TF-2.47-30.4778426.0069249390764.7341112378440.15746912387814171114126WETL
2022-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2022171-11430.2518.2724.26152.034290341830.33991.24994.175.4199TF-1.75-29.7578426.0413056739264.772887564440.17689810146791171114126WETL
2022-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022171-11430.6120.7625.685148.47901163170.27851.08853.975.0585TF-1.39-37.3978424.4823230286563.0267157784210.18715616525661171114126WETL
2022-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2022171-11432.8218.6325.725148.165652769270.19361.13363.925.0536TF0.82-26.1878424.3442394898262.8732412428870.25780433982816172114128WETL
2022-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022171-11432.8219.4626.14148.107349735840.1961.0763.894.966TF0.82-27.1878424.3185357652962.8446937759880.25780433982816172114128WETL
2022-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2022171-11430.2819.4424.86148.642970783810.1871.0673.94.967TF-1.72-28.7278424.5545288671263.107046430530.17773914892429171114126WETL
2022-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2022171-11428.4319.2223.825149.757611000920.22051.29053.955.2405TF-3.57-35.5778425.0446080843163.6536650755270.13059188883176171114126WETL
2022-03-16 04:00:05FORECAST2022171-11429.5519.3324.44150.169564878990.24071.27073.975.2407TF-2.45-29.4578425.2253829503463.8559107331530.15798917554514171114126WETL
2022-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022171-11429.4616.7523.105141.958609687140.3251.3152.954.265TF-2.54-34.5478421.5862949624359.847804296020.15565778920798171114126WETL
2022-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022171-11430.9118.4824.695140.490444573560.38521.24523.474.7152TF-1.09-30.0978420.9275691033559.1363013165970.1959790408575171114126WETL
2022-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022171-11432.5319.726.115140.834933098160.41721.14723.544.6872TF0.53-29.4778421.0823524036159.3031049295770.24781088090572171114126WETL
2022-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2022171-11432.0519.525.775140.525696651070.10990.76993.584.3499TF0.049999999999997-34.9578420.943414554459.1533665809370.23173451495143171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.220.1325.665141.105886931120.1310.7413.774.511TF-0.8-31.878421.2040004634859.4343640643340.2047428365555171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 04:00:07FORECAST2022171-11431.2418.1524.695142.105939746340.12940.83943.984.8194TF-0.76-26.7678421.6522624423959.9192910005470.20596963072588171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.3817.3624.37138.424356599220.28821.03822.994.0282TF-0.62-27.6278419.9964007656358.1377315499710.21029754239794171114126WETL
2022-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.0116.4323.72138.723841780620.28951.08953.844.9295TF-0.99-25.9978420.1316792153558.2822805944970.19897506097416171114126WETL
2022-03-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022171-11430.7915.9623.375138.932329444970.28950.95954.15.0595TF-1.21-22.2178420.2257930488258.3829483211310.19242008866164171113124.5WETL
2022-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.4617.5824.52142.859130732730.68081.30084.225.5208TF-0.54-18.5478421.9891205636960.2849989423980.21279437979738171114126WETL
2022-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022171-11427.8719.8123.84146.766203452730.66771.29774.215.5077TF-4.13-22.1378423.7262202088262.1886886434240.11819945483181171114126WETL
2022-03-14 04:00:07FORECAST2022171-11427.9119.9123.91145.569094104010.66771.26774.45.6677TF-4.09-24.0978423.1958113689761.6042308895930.11905613409004171114126WETL
2022-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.2921.5326.41141.021262995810.12290.75294.435.1829TF-0.71-11.7178421.1660164958959.3933635771650.20750922649633171113124.5WETL
2022-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.8920.9926.44138.6986376030.10350.60354.495.0935TF-0.11-6.1178420.1202983700658.2701130132930.22650754300343171113124.5WETL
2022-03-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022171-11431.952126.475138.601701871630.05440.56444.545.1044TF-0.050000000000001-7.0578420.0765206391658.2233206768990.22845982933076171113124.5WETL
2022-03-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022171-11425.2221.523.36148.949088397510.51431.55434.536.0843TT-6.78-22.7878424.6892593002763.257078024990.070748433243264171115127.5WETL
2022-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022171-1142523.4924.245148.603556786070.45111.40114.726.1211TT-7-2478424.5371741138963.0877340612330.067585572376707171114126WETL
2022-03-13 04:00:06FORECAST2022171-11424.9524.2324.59146.287109630230.32021.29024.695.9802TF-7.05-12.0578423.5141394164861.9546593427730.066882160201482171114126WETL