MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 17, 2022

[ Wednesday, March 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, March 18, 2022 ]

DAY 168 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/18/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.292
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.41 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.16 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-18 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022168-11731.6999424.7400628.22144.451810833330.131.415.757.16TT-0.30006-56.3000675420.69059852413 60.7695187573690.2916183723730617 2114128WETL
2022-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2022168-11629.129.129.1147.026520005510.00671.28674.836.1167TT-2.9-26.976422.5134612122462.120683857520.19971319504951161114126WETL
2022-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2022168-11635.828.4232.11147.420195466810.20021.48024.836.3102TT3.8-20.276422.6887488159462.3128579720650.46607212763084162114128WETL
2022-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2022168-11634.8127.2131.01147.355733583710.20071.48074.836.3107TT2.81-21.1976422.6600585713662.2813829873180.4218880875752162114128WETL
2022-03-17 04:00:05FORECAST2022168-11634.8727.9131.39147.12036307830.26711.54714.836.3771TT2.87-21.1376422.5552616120262.1664835090060.424543803696191621151210WETL
2022-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.526.1430.32144.570282820130.24751.34755.757.0975TT2.5-61.575420.7439161502660.8270669526910.4082259735843172114128WETL
2022-03-16 20:00:01FORECAST2022168-11735.0426.2330.635144.344301404640.18711.29715.757.0471TT3.04-51.9675420.6422006452960.7173045934550.43208656422306172114128WETL
2022-03-16 16:00:01FORECAST2022168-11734.925.7930.345144.263128578340.15891.26895.757.0189TT2.9-52.175420.6056500453860.6778869732740.42587295514418172114128WETL
2022-03-16 12:00:01FORECAST2022168-11734.7727.5731.17144.392754751470.16851.27855.757.0285TT2.77-52.2375420.6640146863460.7408359053740.42011957344827172114128WETL
2022-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2022168-11735.0627.6531.355144.610757546320.19821.32825.757.0782TT3.06-56.9475420.7621278878360.846730060660.4329756329144172114128WETL
2022-03-16 04:00:05FORECAST2022168-11736.0927.9432.015144.919509676740.15051.35055.757.1005TT4.09-50.9175420.9009903369460.9967651420850.47911964474359172114128WETL
2022-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022168-11735.9527.8731.91136.02911449980.15310.33315.756.0831TF3.95-57.0575416.8585987706256.7049060623930.47281718164437172112124WETL
2022-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2022168-11735.2227.8731.545134.213099280970.20080.85085.756.6008TT3.22-53.7875416.0215840073655.8355461574070.44010002734951172113126WETL
2022-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.5727.7531.16134.528681431280.26470.92475.756.6747TT2.57-54.4375416.1673154492555.9864402021830.41130186062151172113126WETL
2022-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.3127.5730.94136.447914717390.28780.95785.756.7078TT2.31-54.6975417.0510796291656.9057501460370.39990610676865172113126WETL
2022-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.8828.2231.55137.197800739120.22611.14615.756.8961TT2.88-54.1275417.3952166211257.2657057594450.42498675964436172114128WETL
2022-03-15 04:00:07FORECAST2022168-11733.8827.8730.875137.589125521770.26841.35845.757.1084TT1.88-51.1275417.5745429119557.4537161994090.38124927900954172114128WETL
2022-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022168-11733.9127.9630.935132.265367728960.31211.65214.476.1221TT1.91-54.0975415.1195587434154.905941088680.382542554245531721151210WETL
2022-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.4427.6231.03132.083747623170.21841.65845.316.9684TT2.44-50.5675415.035219919754.8194072426020.405593983782171721151210WETL
2022-03-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022168-11735.2427.431.32132.62111571960.28181.92185.317.2318TT3.24-46.7675415.2846445341855.0755128993420.440991990742881721151210WETL
2022-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.1927.0930.64133.515453111380.39822.03825.317.3482TT2.19-47.8175415.6990058622755.5022411256530.39467450755831721151210WETL
2022-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2022168-11733.727.2730.485136.780638533990.44741.99745.347.3374TT1.7-48.375417.2038538311757.065409525870.373517909225751721151210WETL
2022-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2022168-11734.3725.129.735135.398159552090.39332.03335.57.5333TT2.37-49.6375416.5682245738856.4025709351850.402528721801281721151210WETL
2022-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.7924.5429.665137.301127085920.28771.94775.617.5577TT2.79-47.2175417.4425836907557.3153372343980.421003631286481721151210WETL
2022-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.4724.7229.595135.650635543080.1561.7865.837.616TT2.47-44.5375416.6844733713956.5235136337630.406909453251781721151210WETL
2022-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.224.7829.49136.109221388710.23051.85055.827.6705TT2.2-45.875416.8954317883356.7433126212180.395109763793451721151210WETL
2022-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022168-11735.2424.6429.94136.863648124880.19551.74555.917.6555TT3.24-47.7675417.2419485784557.1052552331810.440991990742881721151210WETL
2022-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022168-11732.2526.0129.13138.561825111730.17271.88275.977.8527TT0.25-52.7575418.0195153438457.9215469783640.313315085766031721151210WETL
2022-03-13 04:00:05FORECAST2022168-11737.8625.8731.865136.887232739820.19981.85985.967.8198TT5.86-41.1475417.2527705607757.1165771150890.55872327684851731151212.5WETL
2022-03-12 23:00:02FORECAST2022168-11734.7725.6730.22139.99820361360.44242.16246.278.4324TT2.77-44.2375418.6745958300258.6136913148550.420119573448271721151210WETL
2022-03-12 19:00:03FORECAST2022168-11734.8724.4329.65138.303021543360.48742.07746.458.5274TT2.87-37.1375417.9012300432957.7970028216740.424543803696191721151210WETL
2022-03-12 15:00:03FORECAST2022168-11734.3924.9829.685140.521354600540.51952.34956.448.7895TT2.39-41.6175418.9125930148358.8661650296680.403403908659541721151210WETL
2022-03-12 11:00:02FORECAST2022168-11730.7627.0328.895146.81333734431.3883.3386.379.708TT-1.24-46.2475421.750368087761.9185790651420.256254971326531721151210WETL
2022-03-12 07:00:07FORECAST2022168-11731.3326.6729147.993727088451.30073.33076.569.8907TT-0.67-51.6775422.2777072173562.4944517574620.277431707191411721151210WETL
2022-03-12 03:00:07FORECAST2022168-11731.5826.529.04149.819848213371.30073.67076.6310.3007TT-0.42-52.4275423.0904181925563.3873422341380.286981973267561721151210WETL
2022-03-11 23:00:04FORECAST2022168-11736.627.1331.865144.497377900320.08732.19736.798.9873TT4.6-41.475420.7111076154260.7916519039650.502111050085561731151212.5WETL
2022-03-11 19:00:02FORECAST2022168-11736.4128.0432.225141.634544658190.19661.81666.948.7566TT4.41-37.5975419.4179655917959.4040725780560.493542357762911721151210WETL
2022-03-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022168-11735.9428.0531.995141.116431171640.19661.93666.678.6066TT3.94-37.0675419.1829271386459.1535986858870.472367247232621721151210WETL
2022-03-11 11:00:03FORECAST2022168-11737.9827.332.64140.424025323660.06281.83287.239.0628TT5.98-37.0275418.8683389290658.8191782330560.564071007727031731151212.5WETL
2022-03-11 07:00:08FORECAST2022168-11737.4526.131.775144.309999675630.1571.7077.559.257TT5.45-42.5575420.6267561400360.700647042130.540376809254641731151212.5WETL
2022-03-11 03:00:06FORECAST2022168-11737.4726.1131.79144.633958811350.1571.4677.769.227TT5.47-38.5375420.7725665299660.8580020564410.541274080365211731141210WETL
2022-03-10 23:00:04FORECAST2022168-11735.5127.931.705144.22457418660.36971.95977.259.2097TT3.51-40.4975420.5882870866560.6591666129420.45306097729571721151210WETL
2022-03-10 19:00:03FORECAST2022168-11735.5727.3431.455143.264142654040.26891.99897.499.4889TT3.57-36.4375420.1552078229960.1931756303910.455749275223291721151210WETL
2022-03-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022168-11735.5527.3231.435143.478061995840.16971.89977.499.3897TT3.55-40.4575420.2517601338660.2969080943480.454852944614711721151210WETL
2022-03-10 11:00:03FORECAST2022168-11729.6727.3928.53143.491943210250.4291.4696.68.069TT-2.33-49.3375420.2580235956460.3036404554370.21822982826819171114126WETL
2022-03-10 07:00:06FORECAST2022168-11728.6627.7928.225144.800517152440.21091.53096.98.4309TT-3.34-55.3475420.8474858919760.9389335994610.18608657366308171115127.5WETL
2022-03-10 03:00:07FORECAST2022168-11728.3627.9928.175144.197604472910.04221.36226.928.2822TT-3.64-55.6475420.5761402734360.6460719258920.17713388902841171114126WETL