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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 15, 2022

[ Monday, March 14, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 16, 2022 ]

DAY 166 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/16/2022 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.302
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -121

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 419.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2022166-11931.7199225.4100228.56497144.240197083331.12.454.46.85TT-0.28008-121.2800873419.24267395781 60.4716459174180.3018897897209917 21151210WETL
2022-03-16 00:00:01FORECAST2022166-11825.5425.5425.54135.056869102730.01261.36264.45.7626TF-6.46-95.4674415.7199935917256.1458407579060.11016484279162161114126WETL
2022-03-15 12:00:01FORECAST2022166-11830.325.8328.065134.774996660170.46491.81494.46.2149TT-1.7-90.774415.5895140190656.0110753639220.24785069688721161115127.5WETL
2022-03-15 08:00:01FORECAST2022166-11830.1225.8527.985135.67286343060.71212.06214.46.4621TT-1.88-90.8874416.0048142153156.4405643455050.2413881275669161115127.5WETL
2022-03-15 04:00:06FORECAST2022166-11834.3825.8130.095135.683604510940.87082.22084.46.6208TT2.38-86.6274416.0097766746756.4457060110120.414900510131861621151210WETL
2022-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2022166-11933.8925.9429.915130.007369683671.09681.16684.45.5668TF1.89-122.1173412.6657995135253.649595153160.39321204963797172114128WETL
2022-03-14 20:00:01FORECAST2022166-11930.6726.0928.38130.362567165781.21912.12914.46.5291TT-1.33-119.3373412.8328427417553.8179491901620.261419229688931721151210WETL
2022-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2022166-11934.1926.2130.2130.601624370191.37072.28074.46.6807TT2.19-115.8173412.9451823902853.9313115960170.406455966788791721151210WETL
2022-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2022166-11934.2626.0830.17130.891303173621.39182.30184.46.7018TT2.26-115.7473413.0812191625454.0687390927340.409562278619271721151210WETL
2022-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2022166-11933.7926.129.945133.681093808131.32462.26464.46.6646TT1.79-116.2173414.3862284971455.3956042845250.3888239084081721151210WETL
2022-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2022166-11933.712629.855132.328397231681.35692.45694.46.8569TT1.71-118.2973413.754618395854.7514854995240.385323547126041721151210WETL
2022-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022166-11933.4826.129.79134.461915540071.34512.55514.46.9551TT1.48-115.5273414.7498283303955.7680563872190.375312817343961721151210WETL
2022-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022166-11930.3926.3528.37133.748230000791.35522.78524.47.1852TT-1.61-112.6173414.4175196855255.4276097392580.251116230809781721151210WETL
2022-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022166-11930.4826.328.39133.771043803041.33582.75584.47.1558TT-1.52-113.5273414.4281516473555.438486427230.254404350332731721151210WETL
2022-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2022166-11931.0726.3528.71134.602426333491.2932.8034.47.203TT-0.93-113.9373414.8151824902155.8351300431530.276504915972841721151210WETL
2022-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022166-11930.926.2128.555136.289365291471.42082.99084.47.3908TT-1.1-116.173415.5979905893356.6415863538290.270041704890091721151210WETL
2022-03-13 04:00:05FORECAST2022166-11930.8326.1628.495134.330958891531.33232.89234.47.2923TT-1.17-113.1773414.688896976255.7055571724850.267402500650141721151210WETL
2022-03-12 23:00:02FORECAST2022166-11930.9826.1228.55135.959502718431.36733.20734.437.6373TT-1.02-113.0273415.4451846748456.4837207151570.2730737929281721151210WETL
2022-03-12 19:00:02FORECAST2022166-11937.2526.8432.045134.063785490481.26323.28324.437.7132TT5.25-104.7573414.5645239808455.578089414930.545001992928751731151212.5WETL
2022-03-12 15:00:03FORECAST2022166-11932.6926.5929.64136.196195807261.5283.5384.437.968TT0.69-110.3173415.5548436243256.5969888509130.341599465351411721151210WETL
2022-03-12 11:00:02FORECAST2022166-11932.9326.329.615137.027948577921.5783.5184.437.948TT0.93-111.0773415.9396688464356.9953595542040.351723100979461721151210WETL
2022-03-12 07:00:06FORECAST2022166-11932.4426.0929.265138.026199506051.56633.59634.538.1263TT0.44-112.5673416.4004552807757.4741723149920.331173856732741721151210WETL
2022-03-12 03:00:07FORECAST2022166-11932.7625.8929.325139.641017082541.90853.95854.588.5385TT0.76-118.2473417.143375827758.2503252698270.344540840326871721151210WETL
2022-03-11 23:00:03FORECAST2022166-11932.4626.0629.26142.150412932441.78374.04374.538.5737TT0.46-111.5473418.2918302957159.4603564028030.332003242431381721151210WETL
2022-03-11 19:00:02FORECAST2022166-11932.5826.3429.46139.415619454271.40763.78764.568.3476TT0.58-108.4273417.0398612284358.1418705902850.336996723748031721151210WETL
2022-03-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022166-11931.8426.3129.075138.839501177471.53033.68034.528.2003TT-0.16-107.1673416.7750075381557.8648341498340.30669208682761721151210WETL
2022-03-11 11:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.8926.0530.47138.63378240441.51194.26194.488.7419TT2.89-109.1173416.6803403467857.7659716358250.437752093277581721151210WETL
2022-03-11 07:00:07FORECAST2022166-11933.9126.4930.2142.105452154581.32894.28894.598.8789TT1.91-115.0973418.27131780459.4386347398270.394091327592551721151210WETL
2022-03-11 03:00:05FORECAST2022166-11934.1626.4830.32142.408229613831.09174.25174.68.8517TT2.16-110.8473418.40940898859.5849431877510.40512647771161721151210WETL
2022-03-10 23:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.2726.530.385139.883142535681.23473.89474.598.4847TT2.27-109.7373417.2545067315458.3668716387850.410006506065521721151210WETL
2022-03-10 19:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.8826.4930.685140.004285381021.43794.25794.678.9279TT2.88-107.1273417.3100833095658.425199996050.437301760482981721151210WETL
2022-03-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.9426.530.72140.711182568331.43794.29794.638.9279TT2.94-111.0673417.6340449834658.7657803504170.440004955264421721151210WETL
2022-03-10 11:00:03FORECAST2022166-11931.6826.228.94138.187915512010.76292.74294.627.3629TT-0.32-113.3273416.4749924802257.5518110737220.300300799204111721151210WETL
2022-03-10 07:00:06FORECAST2022166-11931.9426.229.07140.695319307980.99573.29574.67.8957TT-0.059999999999999-117.0673417.6267814384558.7581333660480.310716841517251721151210WETL
2022-03-10 03:00:06FORECAST2022166-11931.9626.1929.075141.233098635830.99573.34574.577.9157TT-0.039999999999999-114.0473417.8728592482159.017478747440.311524536383341721151210WETL
2022-03-09 23:00:04FORECAST2022166-11935.7326.130.915140.87372281452.11413.50414.548.0441TT3.73-101.2773417.7084528233558.8441448003120.475810672032041721151210WETL
2022-03-09 19:00:03FORECAST2022166-11931.7925.9528.87139.142561741231.85972.88974.47.2897TT-0.21-100.2173416.9143791684658.0105347442560.304688367765611721151210WETL
2022-03-09 15:00:03FORECAST2022166-11931.8425.9728.905139.929911878721.85972.86974.457.3197TT-0.16-100.1673417.275965081458.3893890229470.30669208682761721151210WETL
2022-03-09 11:00:03FORECAST2022166-11932.0926.7429.415137.656340115191.23523.21524.487.6952TT0.090000000000003-105.9173416.2298667141457.2966800985030.316796523122561721151210WETL
2022-03-09 07:00:07FORECAST2022166-11933.2626.1229.69137.071092003731.15163.23164.527.7516TT1.26-108.7473415.9596077497257.0160376636970.365815148926851721151210WETL
2022-03-09 03:00:06FORECAST2022166-11933.2326.1329.68137.54250633511.15163.23164.597.8216TT1.23-110.7773416.1773314166157.2420732428960.364526210045741721151210WETL
2022-03-08 23:00:03FORECAST2022166-11933.7426.6330.185134.807112823351.48332.76334.657.4133TT1.74-102.2673414.9103442217555.9328655850760.386635105422871721151210WETL
2022-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.6125.8430.225133.253327075711.25052.73054.857.5805TT2.61-101.3973414.1867273756155.19175945340.425175342002841721151210WETL
2022-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2022166-11934.6329.2631.945132.242095584121.07512.55514.97.4551TT2.63-101.3773413.7142481647154.7104391503090.426071318026921721151210WETL
2022-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2022166-11932.4129.7131.06131.961439648210.61054.02054.438.4505TT0.41-109.5973413.5829015796254.5769951063320.329931329654481721151210WETL
2022-03-08 07:00:07FORECAST2022166-11931.5630.1330.845134.144677108580.33523.64524.317.9552TT-0.44-115.4473414.6021890816955.6166767828730.295547174678881721151210WETL
2022-03-08 03:00:07FORECAST2022166-11931.5931.2531.42133.24870856460.27633.58634.327.9063TT-0.41-105.4173414.1845722192255.1895593555920.29673233710391721151210WETL