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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 7, 2022

[ Sunday, March 6, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 8, 2022 ]

DAY 158 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/08/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.420
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -221

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 403.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-08 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022158-12633.4900424.8300629.16005121.390833333330.0299999999999730.0299999999999736.226.25TF1.49004-220.5099666403.4632387272 48.9767387684610.4202327245355216 2111122WETL
2022-03-08 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022158-12633.4900424.8300629.16005121.390833333330.0299999999999730.0299999999999736.226.25TF1.49004-220.5099666403.4632387272 48.9767387684610.4202327245355216 2111122WETL
2022-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2022158-12638.0527.5332.79121.896149979130.00560.00566.226.2256TF6.05-215.9566403.7126390551149.211016398730.62591478080066163111122.5WETL
2022-03-07 07:00:05FORECAST2022158-12637.324.8731.085121.96543224710.01050.01056.226.2305TF5.3-216.766403.7468085500849.2431540231970.59294942119458163111122.5WETL
2022-03-07 03:00:05FORECAST2022158-12637.9226.8932.405121.941839448540.01650.01656.226.2365TF5.92-216.0866403.7351734339449.2322096986110.62025892674735163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 23:00:01FORECAST2022158-12637.8927.4532.67122.883336857720.00820.00826.226.2282TF5.89-213.1166404.1989451104949.6693151295470.61895001915767163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 19:00:01FORECAST2022158-12637.827.2132.505122.885126278540.00770.00776.226.2277TF5.8-213.266404.1998255047549.6701465989150.61501518101502163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 15:00:01FORECAST2022158-12638.2527.4232.835122.855631795010.01330.01336.226.2333TF6.25-212.7566404.185313721249.6564420794830.63456304934053163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2022158-12638.1227.332.71122.713027411140.00780.00786.226.2278TF6.12-212.8866404.1151346207549.5901915919720.62894914275214163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2022158-12638.1827.6832.93122.776271744740.0080.0086.226.228TF6.18-212.8266404.1462618390149.6195712681680.63154366918642163111122.5WETL
2022-03-06 03:00:07FORECAST2022158-12637.9927.0732.53122.779317444910.00530.00536.226.2253TF5.99-212.0166404.1477607273249.6209862089910.62330766939831163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2022158-12638.1327.3832.755123.737609024270.01460.01466.226.2346TF6.13-206.8766404.6187919295350.0665618796470.62938197458474163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2022158-12638.1826.2832.23123.713899241270.01490.01496.226.2349TF6.18-206.8266404.6071516340650.0555283895540.63154366918642163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 15:00:02FORECAST2022158-12638.8227.8333.325123.699213018780.0120.0126.226.232TF6.82-206.1866404.5999410954650.0486943009520.65882514970619163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2022158-12638.6527.5633.105123.674198891340.02710.02716.226.2471TF6.65-206.3566404.5876592152350.0370546347660.65165210295759163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2022158-12638.727.8133.255123.637279223860.02740.03746.226.2574TF6.7-206.366404.5695303157750.0198759851170.65376759621051163111122.5WETL
2022-03-05 03:00:05FORECAST2022158-12639.9227.8433.88123.647802387670.02050.03056.226.2505TF7.92-206.0866404.5746977451450.0247722778430.70376889965034164111123WETL
2022-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2022158-12640.0627.2633.6600.05230.06236.236.2923TF8.06-200.9466333.2416650586200.7092893595461641115215WETM
2022-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2022158-12639.4325.8932.6600.06780.07786.236.3078TF7.43-201.5766333.2416650586200.68407969757631631115212.5WETM
2022-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2022158-12639.2826.1232.700.07040.09046.236.3204TF7.28-200.7266333.2416650586200.677942954095411631125225WETM
2022-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2022158-12641.0826.9133.99500.00120.02126.236.2512TF9.08-198.9266333.2416650586200.747986438299471641115215WETM
2022-03-04 07:00:06FORECAST2022158-12635.9826.7531.365NAN0.00290.02296.246.2629TF3.98-204.0266NANNAN0.53344416094661631115212.5WETL
2022-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2022158-12642.2226.9234.57NAN0.00350.02356.256.2735TF10.22-196.7866NANNAN0.787793267974031641115215WETM
2022-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2022158-12641.5726.4634.015122.821152465340.00040.02046.346.3604TF9.57-172.4366404.1683479308749.6404222828840.76556177144565164111123WETL
2022-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2022158-12641.9824.533.24122.869863993380.0020.0226.346.362TF9.98-174.0266404.1923163386649.6630549357020.77973152268711164111123WETL
2022-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2022158-12642.0425.8433.94122.802324479210.0020.0226.346.362TF10.04-171.9666404.1590828641149.6316748350970.78176322646098164111123WETL
2022-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2022158-12642.7225.4234.07123.1181646640900.026.346.36TF10.72-170.2866404.3144461013449.7784525511740.80402473616549164111123WETL
2022-03-03 07:00:06FORECAST2022158-12637.9225.4431.68122.9497116413500.024.134.15TF5.92-171.0866404.2315987964849.7001585083480.62025892674735163111122.5WETL
2022-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2022158-12643.4224.7634.09122.9345664775100.024.154.17TF11.42-165.5866404.2241484784349.6931204529370.8254438258045164111123WETL
2022-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2022158-12645.2522.9734.11125.1582206890200.024.284.3TF13.25-156.7566405.3149621085350.7284994761420.87412829155907165111123.5WETL
2022-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2022158-12645.4524.4134.93125.1764504022600.024.284.3TF13.45-158.5566405.3238792579250.7370044687790.87881101010934165111123.5WETL
2022-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2022158-12646.7729.8638.315125.0673220757500.024.294.31TF14.77-154.2366405.2704924643850.686095208840.90666746242425165111123.5WETL
2022-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2022158-12649.0630.2839.67125.83386957810.00020.02024.314.3302TF17.06-159.9466405.6451831353251.0439030696360.94334525414089165111123.5WETL
2022-03-02 07:00:07FORECAST2022158-12649.0130.3839.695125.9106957891400.024.234.25TF17.01-158.9966405.6826958063251.0797904985870.94268798300697165111123.5WETL
2022-03-02 03:00:07FORECAST2022158-12646.5130.4538.48125.743873355100.044.194.23TF14.51-146.4966405.6012305052151.0018697613190.90159120814144165111123.5WETL
2022-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2022158-12647.2529.8638.555129.575829554680.00040.04044.34.3404TF15.25-142.7566407.4638276878552.797463486180.91552791974326165111123.5WETL
2022-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2022158-12647.0529.3938.22129.875386227660.03010.08014.274.3501TF15.05-146.9566407.6086704998352.938333510910.91191568139788165111123.5WETL
2022-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2022158-12647.1228.6537.885130.153492498540.03010.06014.44.4601TF15.12-141.8866407.7430429131453.0691810771280.91319279830262165111123.5WETL
2022-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2022158-12641.3528.0834.715131.213342058800.044.434.47TF9.35-158.6566408.2542604301253.5684059207820.75775570306512164111123WETL
2022-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2022158-12641.2527.6534.45131.939909897920.00040.05044.644.6904TF9.25-162.7566408.603925538353.9111651194580.7541615338665164111123WETL
2022-03-01 03:00:06FORECAST2022158-12640.5927.2233.905131.564866112030.00040.03044.714.7404TF8.59-157.4166408.4235140572353.7341849439440.729740495794164111123WETL
2022-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2022158-12638.9928.3233.6553.5970069507830.16520.35526.246.5952TT6.99-161.0166335.648676399471.207330622030.665941290652841631124220WETH
2022-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2022158-12639.0828.4833.784.17389707299810.06730.31736.196.5073TF7.08-166.9266336.032672099371.40256578650730.669684860846691631124220WETM
2022-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2022158-12639.128.7633.933.99099365774950.02660.28666.436.7166TT7.1-164.966335.910986906951.3406186183140.670514482169141631124220WETH
2022-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2022158-12628.8622.0925.4756.03751164195760.02230.45236.446.8923TT-3.14-187.1466337.269313129252.03626740449290.232171930126451611124212WETL
2022-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2022158-12624.5923.4924.04NAN0.06030.42037.668.0803TT-7.41-190.4166NANNAN0.111002686771591611125215WETL
2022-02-28 03:00:05FORECAST2022158-12624.4723.724.085NAN0.03850.39858.558.9485TT-7.53-189.5366NANNAN0.108419007650191611125215WETL