MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 1, 2022

[ Monday, February 28, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 2, 2022 ]

DAY 152 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/02/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.586
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -155

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.40 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 401.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -132

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-02 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022152-13236.2800434.9800835.63006125.4131350.399999999999982.212.524.73TF4.28004-154.7199660401.00111376799 50.2908068161350.5864295949866116 31151212.5WETL
2022-03-02 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022152-13236.2800434.9800835.63006125.4131350.399999999999982.212.524.73TF4.28004-154.7199660401.00111376799 50.2908068161350.5864295949866116 31151212.5WETL
2022-03-01 11:00:02FORECAST2022152-13239.1932.1735.68129.556365389720.46242.27242.524.7924TF7.19-151.8160403.0623741138752.2192962155440.715988119694281641151215WETL
2022-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2022152-13236.4632.0934.275129.770159523340.60842.41842.524.9384TF4.46-154.5460403.1681494505252.3191950689240.594902637676871631151212.5WETL
2022-03-01 03:00:05FORECAST2022152-13236.6132.9434.775129.619656257660.71492.52492.525.0449TF4.61-154.3960403.093693460252.2488659859430.601931426220921631151212.5WETL
2022-02-28 23:00:01FORECAST2022152-13236.6433.0834.8601.01643.99642.526.5164TT4.64-150.3660327.1381392299600.603333303001231631155262.5WETH
2022-02-28 19:00:01FORECAST2022152-13236.4733.0834.77500.95343.93342.526.4534TT4.47-150.5360327.1381392299600.595372204196581631155262.5WETH
2022-02-28 15:00:01FORECAST2022152-13237.3633.6435.501.09754.07752.526.5975TT5.36-149.6460327.1381392299600.636539267130921631155262.5WETH
2022-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2022152-13237.0233.6335.32501.11094.09092.526.6109TT5.02-149.9860327.1381392299600.620969198900241631155262.5WETH
2022-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2022152-13237.433.6735.535NAN0.9065.1062.527.626TT5.4-149.660NANNAN0.638356871315181631155262.5WETH
2022-02-28 03:00:04FORECAST2022152-13236.7933.4235.105NAN1.07636.05632.528.5763TT4.79-151.2160NANNAN0.61032233322971631155262.5WETH
2022-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2022152-13239.433.4536.42501.11797.66792.5210.1879TT7.4-115.660327.1381392299600.724549839029911641155275WETH
2022-02-27 19:00:01FORECAST2022152-13237.0632.6834.8701.31667.50662.5210.0266TT5.06-116.9460327.1381392299600.622811751086181631155262.5WETH
2022-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2022152-13237.0732.7234.89501.41037.38032.529.9003TT5.07-116.9360327.1381392299600.623271954581051631155262.5WETH
2022-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2022152-13237.1432.5934.8651.76027783954651.48127.47122.529.9912TT5.14-117.8660328.34604179010.577980261065930.626488443969061631154250WETH
2022-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2022152-13236.9132.7134.81NAN1.5127.5522.5210.072TT4.91-115.0960NANNAN0.615888109591321631155262.5WETH
2022-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2022152-13236.9133.2335.07NAN1.49767.69762.5210.2176TT4.91-119.0960NANNAN0.615888109591321631155262.5WETH
2022-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2022152-13236.9633.5635.261.42335774017891.5027.6622.7110.372TT4.96-77.0460328.115264965610.467025402059650.618200223252511631154250WETH
2022-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2022152-13238.3333.0335.683.14113946951581.44767.41762.7110.1276TT6.33-77.6760329.28981619481.03434523855910.679662818972341631154250WETH
2022-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2022152-13236.233.1534.6751.48716483062671.26786.84782.719.5578TT4.2-77.860328.158985437260.488026501996430.582647858614961631154250WETH
2022-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2022152-13235.1932.9834.0851.88863037043731.12077.03072.719.7407TT3.19-80.8160328.433906215930.620290249960760.534384420103121631154250WETH
2022-02-26 07:00:06FORECAST2022152-13235.731.2733.485NAN1.28367.00362.699.6936TT3.7-81.360NANNAN0.558864043262031631155262.5WETH
2022-02-26 03:00:07FORECAST2022152-13235.6630.5133.085NAN1.06516.42512.79.1251TT3.66-82.3460NANNAN0.556950945701251631155262.5WETH
2022-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2022152-13237.7129.9733.843.02399811668220.96955.81952.688.4995TT5.71-48.2960329.209882288460.995530064033460.652334875364511631154250WETH
2022-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2022152-13238.6530.4334.542.96202730880191.07265.68262.698.3726TT6.65-40.3560329.167585562760.97500337760930.693406931206641631154250WETH
2022-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2022152-13238.732.3535.5250.203025947684691.26065.80062.728.5206TT6.7-44.360327.277731309820.0664458715552720.695530758708241631154250WETH
2022-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2022152-13238.632.535.550.42412025877591.42355.66352.678.3335TT6.6-44.460327.429664576440.138869554071070.691276594751651631154250WETH
2022-02-25 07:00:06FORECAST2022152-13234.9232.6633.79NAN1.07024.95022.67.5502TT2.92-49.0860NANNAN0.521365730079381631155262.5WETH
2022-02-25 03:00:08FORECAST2022152-13237.4333.135.265NAN1.41015.00012.657.6501TT5.43-43.5760NANNAN0.639718032279061631155262.5WETH
2022-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2022152-13238.9632.7835.870.628360548003261.19444.40442.667.0644TT6.96-20.0460327.56994017430.205832027117320.706467533920381641154260WETH
2022-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2022152-13238.5334.836.66501.2794.6092.657.259TT6.53-20.4760327.1381392299600.688283299816811631155262.5WETH
2022-02-24 15:00:03FORECAST2022152-13240.132.8536.4750.236873327078460.7583.5882.66.188TT8.1-15.960327.300996340420.077528875959250.752139867588271641154260WETH
2022-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2022152-13238.9932.235.5950.473201620665610.44743.07742.645.7174TT6.99-23.0160327.463381107860.154956202648880.707717686604061641154260WETH
2022-02-24 07:00:05FORECAST2022152-13238.7932.735.745NAN0.25352.79352.615.4035TT6.79-20.2160NANNAN0.699337062046291641155275WETH
2022-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2022152-13238.9332.7835.855NAN0.25352.88352.595.4735TT6.93-21.0760NANNAN0.705214913191131641155275WETH
2022-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2022152-13240.6931.0835.88500.46114.03112.66.6311TT8.699.6960327.1381392299600.774197545197691641155275WETH
2022-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2022152-13240.8732.7836.82500.46114.09112.676.7611TT8.877.8760327.1381392299600.78069952023421641155275WETH
2022-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2022152-13240.3831.1435.7600.31113.69112.696.3811TT8.389.3860327.1381392299600.762748595391141641155275WETH
2022-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2022152-13236.9933.4235.20501.82644.56642.647.2064TT4.991.9960327.1381392299600.619585476746841631155262.5WETH
2022-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2022152-13237.2633.4835.37NAN1.82644.63642.657.2864TT5.261.2660NANNAN0.631981874334771631155262.5WETH
2022-02-23 03:00:10FORECAST2022152-13240.8733.2237.045NAN1.46094.04092.636.6709TT8.879.8760NANNAN0.78069952023421641155275WETH
2022-02-22 23:00:04FORECAST2022152-13236.9434.5835.76126.71364495731.88284.46282.67.0628TT4.9424.9460401.65045585750.89459326040.617275878378491631151212.5WETL
2022-02-22 19:00:03FORECAST2022152-13241.0235.4738.245126.136751334341.5024.0822.586.662TT9.0233.0260401.362678686450.6265843963520.786034816211691641151215WETL
2022-02-22 15:00:04FORECAST2022152-13241.0335.5138.27126.221321757811.28423.85422.576.4242TT9.0334.0360401.4048921133450.6658560425960.786387800571921641151215WETL
2022-02-22 11:00:03FORECAST2022152-13234.5532.7333.64126.839705977060.94711.79712.584.3771TF2.5526.5560401.7132839187150.9531948193270.503491003206421631151212.5WETL
2022-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2022152-13234.0833.7833.93126.721568932440.72021.44022.584.0202TF2.0823.0860401.6544057115850.8982764603970.48077982446547162114128WETL
2022-02-22 03:00:06FORECAST2022152-13234.1233.7833.95126.548689411230.29271.01272.573.5827TF2.1230.1260401.5682126039450.817931014240.48271130149854162114128DRYL