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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 22, 2022

[ Monday, February 21, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 23, 2022 ]

DAY 145 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/23/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 79

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 402.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-23 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022145-1390NAN00.881.842.72FF-327953NAN NAN2.1900668564778E-616 11135222.5DRYL
2022-02-23 03:00:06OBSERVATION2022145-1390NAN00.881.842.72FF-327953NAN NAN2.1900668564778E-616 11135222.5DRYL
2022-02-22 11:00:01FORECAST2022145-13919.224.3811.8127.112829859470.01450.89451.842.7345FF-12.7898.2253396.5644127468450.408424725810.025256293437394161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-22 07:00:05FORECAST2022145-13919.344.611.97126.958416401440.0150.8951.842.735FF-12.6698.3453396.485431391650.3371624957210.026243629381894161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-22 03:00:05FORECAST2022145-13917.644.1910.915127.019921331250.02230.90231.842.7423FF-14.3696.6453396.5168944257450.3655447364710.014900470040127161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-21 23:00:01FORECAST2022145-13918.664.0111.335121.139345886430.01731.02731.842.8673FF-13.34106.6653393.4863261776547.6666761684150.021049997282465161114126DRYL
2022-02-21 19:00:01FORECAST2022145-13918.693.8611.275121.180245360320.02221.03221.842.8722FF-13.31106.6953393.5075605204347.6853427350060.021259300030219161114126DRYL
2022-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2022145-13918.73.8111.255121.182424568670.02221.03221.842.8722FF-13.3106.753393.5086918681347.6863373694270.021329456702238161114126DRYL
2022-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2022145-13918.663.911.28121.920643495130.0221.0321.842.872FF-13.34106.6653393.891582033348.0235151488130.021049997282465161114126DRYL
2022-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2022145-13918.874.5911.73122.258625718610.02741.09741.842.9374FF-13.13105.8753394.0666429753748.1780462117130.022552323618631161114126DRYL
2022-02-21 03:00:03FORECAST2022145-13918.454.4211.435123.018812424560.02731.21731.843.0573FF-13.55103.4553394.459839823348.5259810442440.019633052847797161114126DRYL
2022-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2022145-13918.524.4311.475112.341746563060.02750.79751.842.6375FF-13.48106.5253388.8671000211443.6860091972870.020096112287622161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2022145-13918.914.511.705112.662202924190.02450.84451.842.6845FF-13.09106.9153389.037175037843.8297851591640.022848474902797161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-20 15:00:03FORECAST2022145-13918.944.6911.815112.415297627590.02870.79871.842.6387FF-13.06106.9453388.9061478380643.7190003584140.02307272759994161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2022145-13919.134.4911.81114.558304962140.02940.86941.842.7094FF-12.87106.1353390.0406607341244.6823969600130.024536332246221161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-20 07:00:06FORECAST2022145-13919.064.5311.795115.400087850420.02110.98111.842.8211FF-12.94107.0653390.4846159331645.0619589829230.023988312426012161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2022145-139194.3711.685115.939267929950.01961.13961.842.9796FF-1310653390.7684804879945.3054115578770.023526782619705161114126DRYL
2022-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2022145-13917.164.9611.06117.096404437930.02311.40311.813.2131TF-14.84107.1653391.3763725002345.8287660017370.012586838906481161114126DRYL
2022-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2022145-13918.014.7711.39117.572824283320.03571.50571.813.3157TF-13.99108.0153391.6261369138946.0445909801330.016924693077942161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2022145-13919.685.912.79117.842631749580.03521.55521.813.3652TF-12.32109.6853391.767450226646.1669073685240.0292172249658161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2022145-13917.845.2311.535119.719287422840.0391.4691.813.279TF-14.16106.8453392.7476852649447.0194730168880.015967217184159161114126DRYL
2022-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2022145-13917.347.612.47119.954944339990.03431.44431.753.1943TF-14.66105.3453392.8704462484147.1267525125550.013415251616327161114126DRYL
2022-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2022145-13921.747.4814.61119.43603462720.04151.25151.833.0815FF-10.26111.7453392.6000328407846.8905911170110.053723163495873161114126DRYL
2022-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2022145-13921.566.5614.06120.362452917310.04291.31291.793.1029TF-10.44108.5653393.0825567611347.3123807307760.051081353376293161114126DRYL
2022-02-18 19:00:04FORECAST2022145-13922.847.5515.195122.13933696570.03621.47621.813.2862TF-9.16109.8453394.0048734494848.1234940043750.072279063234474161114126DRYL
2022-02-18 15:00:01FORECAST2022145-139249.6516.825122.952790813780.08661.55661.853.4066TF-811253394.4257210870548.4957431763920.096771076129657161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2022145-13926.0112.9619.485122.225336830930.08471.46471.833.2947TF-5.99110.0153394.0494073669648.1628215434550.15264389227329161114126DRYL
2022-02-18 07:00:09FORECAST2022145-13920.4212.716.56121.752899803070.04251.43251.833.2625TF-11.58105.4253393.8046418552447.9468571017830.036659348906279161114126DRYL
2022-02-18 03:00:06FORECAST2022145-13925.68.0716.835120.403852472380.03061.24061.742.9806FF-6.4114.653393.1040931803847.3312472415810.13979609954845161114126DRYL
2022-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2022145-13926.687.9317.305121.313509978540.03561.13561.732.8656FF-5.32120.6853393.5767340446747.7461750528490.17527020837237161114126DRYL
2022-02-17 19:00:02FORECAST2022145-13927.0711.4819.275121.939647904870.02191.20191.863.0619FF-4.93122.0753393.9014295269248.0322016257390.1893699331643161114126DRYL
2022-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2022145-13927.0411.9819.51121.560909154160.02281.08281.92.9828FF-4.96122.0453393.7050892068547.8591485826050.18826122947555161114126DRYL
2022-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2022145-13923.429.7416.58121.172261435150.02170.96171.942.9017FF-8.58118.4253393.5034155693947.6816987469990.083857417050228161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-17 07:00:07FORECAST2022145-13923.459.716.575119.532158489480.02170.78171.882.6617FF-8.55112.4553392.6501516556146.9343201586160.084492029938425161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-17 03:00:08FORECAST2022145-13925.411.3618.38121.127599361380.01121.01121.92.9112FF-6.6119.453393.4802271648147.6613153126450.13380278583132161114126DRYL
2022-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2022145-13932.9417.2925.115118.077357616350.04181.11181.742.8518FF0.94133.9453391.8903105872646.2733723495950.4689107833496162114128DRYL
2022-02-16 19:00:04FORECAST2022145-13934.9317.5326.23117.967241068820.00491.02491.772.7949FF2.93134.9353391.8326824360346.2234205075750.57688125192831631141210DRYL
2022-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2022145-13933.7517.3925.57116.065194566950.00490.89491.562.4549FF1.75135.7553390.8347216678945.3623080139050.51303379079369163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2022145-13933.4418.1425.79116.594157934260.02321.08321.412.4932FF1.44133.4453391.1127409223945.6014606852080.49613663132298162114128DRYL
2022-02-16 07:00:05FORECAST2022145-13932.6819.4126.045114.629567621520.04010.72011.412.1301FF0.68134.6853390.0782813568344.714504730480.4548025648374162113126DRYL
2022-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2022145-13933.0319.426.215114.369131944130.04010.76011.342.1001FF1.03139.0353389.9407604335644.5971862804190.47380441961117162113126DRYL
2022-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2022145-13933.9516.5725.26111.615384787570.00940.71940.951.6694FF1.95143.9553388.4810869302543.3604660004140.52392468037297163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2022145-13933.4912.7523.12113.182412559130.00580.72581.161.8858FF1.49138.4953389.3129700222144.0633811876750.49886230463988162113126DRYL
2022-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2022145-13933.4614.7324.095113.074980373820.00280.74281.061.8028FF1.46141.4653389.2560434960144.0151194787010.49722688613348162113126DRYL
2022-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2022145-13927.719.7723.735111.8953982919700.581.11.68FF-4.3137.753388.6299798893743.485906387920.21356922070265161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-15 07:00:09FORECAST2022145-13920.4519.7420.095112.5572460260800.581.151.73FF-11.55125.4553388.9814867657843.7826849054850.036991000435872161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-15 03:00:06FORECAST2022145-13919.4618.8519.155112.4002205405500.511.211.72FF-12.54126.4653388.8981440978143.7122371644050.027262944256176161113124.5DRYL